116
FXUS63 KAPX 081029
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
629 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of shower and storm chances with the first
  beginning tonight and lasting through Tuesday

- Hot and humid conditions begin Wednesday with a second round
  of shower and storm chances late Wednesday into early
  Thursday

- Drier conditions return near the end of the work week with
  below normal temperatures lingering through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Current ALPW satellite imagery depicts a deep gulf moisture plume
residing over the central plains and reaching up towards MN. +1"
PWATs are being shown over MN, with estimates just under 2" over
parts of MO/IL. A loose -PNA pattern in the upper levels exists
today, with upper ridging and surface high pressure to the east and
broad troughing to the west with embedded upper waves/lows moving
through the flow. An upper shortwave will race northward up the
central plains today, pushing that deep moisture plume into MI. SE
winds near the surface will reinforce the drier airmass over NE
lower today, while southerlies around 3-4 kft will advect warmer 850
mb temperatures overhead. This layer remains dry, but likely cap
mixing up to here. Winds will be breezy in the afternoon hours with
mid to high clouds filling in from the west and southwest.

The upper wave will move the deeper moisture directly over northern
MI late this evening and into the nighttime hours. RAP soundings
depict skinny CAPE and 0-3km shear of around 15kts during this time.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be likely in the
evening and night time hours tonight, with the stronger storms
producing heavy rain. A few strikes will be possible, however the
environment is more conducive to heavy rain and low end gusty
outflow winds. Tuesday morning, the upper wave moves overhead and
yields better instability. Skinny CAPE is still present with the
deep moisture present, but chances for slightly better shear (up to
20kts) exists and some upper forcing from the wave itself.
Widespread shower activity will move over northern MI with embedded
storms Tuesday morning through afternoon. Heavy rain remains the
primary hazard, and localized flooding becomes a possibility for
areas that see repeated rounds of precipitation. Widespread quarter
to half inch of rain will be likely through late Tuesday, with
swaths of 1"-2" possible.

A lower level boundary will move in from the southwest Tuesday night
into Wednesday and bring some minor shower chances with warmer and
more humid air behind it. Around 18 to 20C 850mb temps move in for
Wednesday with surface Td in the high 60s to low 70s. This hot and
humid air mass will likely come with cloud cover and breeze
southwest winds during the day on Wednesday, which should curb some
of the excessive heat concerns. Clouds could keep temperatures in
the high 80s (not low 90s). No matter the exact temperature,
Wednesday will feel hot with heat index values well into the 90s for
most spots of northern lower, high 80s for eastern upper. The storm
environment will be suppressed be residing in the warm sector,
however if some spots do have access to more sunlight and can reach
those hotter temperatures Convective Ts will be met. Initial NAM
soundings show ample CAPE with marginal shear (sfc - 3km 20kts).
Stronger storms will have the potential for hail and gusty winds, as
well as heavy rain. This is if storms can break the cap. Other
guidance isn`t as optimistic about the environment (GFS).

A large upper low will shift over MN later Wednesday, dragging a
cold front eastward over the plains. Showers and storms are likely
as this boundary passes Wednesday night. The environment continues
to look more geared towards heavy precip with the strongest storms
potentially producing strong wind gusts.

Drier and cooler air will move in for Thursday and Friday. Slight
chances for more precipitation this weekend, however signals are
unclear at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue across northern Michigan into this
evening. Southeast winds between 5-10 kts with gusts to 15-20 kts
are anticipated through this afternoon before weakening into
tonight. Mid/high cloud cover will increase through the day ahead of
shower/storm chances returning tonight. Despite lowering of cloud
bases through tonight, most TAF sites are currently expected to
remain VFR at this time with the exception of MBL where MVFR CIGs
are likely after 06Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...DJC