229
FXUS63 KAPX 151737
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
137 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower chances return late tonight.

- Increasing potential of dangerous/extreme heat bulding across
  the region next week. Chances of showers and storms are
  expected to continue at times through the entirety of the long
  term forecast period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

1024mb surface high centered to our northeast over Ontario this
morning. Return flow increasing to our west between this...and
energy over the Plains with attendant decaying MCS in the Mid MS
Valley pumping out gravity waves per WV imagery. Weak bit of a warm
front to our northwest over Manitoba/W. Ontario...north of a subtle
PV max crossing MN in the right entrance region of an 80+kt upper
jet lifting through. This latter feature also has some attendant mid
clouds and radar returns,though unclear attm how much of this
is making it to the ground across the WUP, similar to yesterday
morning`s WI niblet that ultimately tossed a few sprinkles NW
Lower`s way. We are drier this morning than yesterday (pwat on
the 12z sounding of 0.56in, lower than yesterday and definitely
running below the mean for mid June), and did have a chilly
night with lows generally in the 40s (a few upper 30s in the
typical colder spots). Temperature recovery seems to be quick,
though, with temps already into the low 60s in spots...and
somewhat quicker mixing than perhaps anticipated in spots,
noting gusts of 10-20kts already across the area.

High pressure to continue to pivot away, with increasing return flow
expected later this afternoon/evening. Think mid/high clouds will
remain present over the area, esp the EUP through the morning, and
eventually into NW Lower more this afternoon/evening. Not as clear
on surface based cu, given somewhat drier profile than
yesterday...particularly if we mix high enough to tap into some of
that drier air aloft above 850-800mb...and will likely bump
winds/gusts up a few kts or so for the daylight hours as a result.
Will keep an eye on temp trends today...esp for downslope favored
sites (in south/southeast flow, TVC, etc)...in case things need to
be adjusted upward before thicker cloud cover increases later this
afternoon. May also have to keep an eye on sprinkle potential over
the EUP with that mid cloud deck slipping southeastward into the Soo
attm...as there have been some showers with that further north along
the Lake Superior coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing continues to slide east of the Great Lakes and over New
England today as ridging works overhead. Subsidence provided at the
ridge/trough inflection point will keep building surface high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes eastward as well. A weak
shortwave lifting across the Midwest later this evening/tonight
looks to provide sufficient forcing aloft to support an area of
relatively low surface pressure that will trek west of Lake
Michigan into Sunday morning.

Forecast Details:

Shower chances return late tonight -- Quiet weather is in store for
northern Michigan once again today with high pressure centered
overhead, leading to sunny skies through the afternoon. Cloud cover
will begin to spread from west to east across the area this evening
as the aforementioned shortwave and associated precip lifts across
the Midwest. Low confidence exists at this time, but slight chance
PoPs are included in tonight`s forecast as some showers from this
system may work into Michigan overnight and saturate dry profiles
sufficiently for some rain to reach the ground before more better
rain chances arrive after the period. Otherwise, temperatures look
to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s for many areas today with
cooler temperatures in the low 70s anticipated across northeast
lower and the eastern U.P.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Shortwave midlevel troughing over the northeastern CONUS will
continue to move downstream while upstream longwave ridging
continues to builds across the rest of North America. Attention
for the long term period remains next week as aforementioned
ridging will drive high temperatures across the Great Lakes
region well above normal. Midlevel height disturbances riding
along the baroclinic zone will continue chances of showers and
storms at times next week potentially impacting the severity of
heat across the CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Increasing potential of dangerous/extreme heat bulding across
 the region next week. Chances of showers and storms are
 expected to continue at times through the entirety of the long
 term forecast period: A well advertised heat wave is set to
 commence next week at the start of the long term and continue
 through the entirety of the forecast period. Southwest flow
 will advect a hot humid air mass from the Gulf and build
 temperatures into the mid/upper 80s next week, with the warmest
 days expected to be Monday and Tuesday (with highs potentially
 reaching well into the 90s). Convection driven by lingering
 atmospheric moisture and some height disturbances along the
 aformentioned ridge is expected to develop from time to time
 this week. The baroclinic zone is expected to remain well to
 the northwest of the CWA, but convection can still fire off
 from potential outflow boundaries or lake breezes. Subsequent
 thunderstorms leave some uncertainty with daytime high
 temperatures as low level mixing along with cloud cover could
 inhibit diurnal heating. Nevertheless, the majority of the long
 term will remain well above normal and uncomfortably warm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR ceilings/visbys expected through the TAF period. Do think
ceilings around 7-10kft are likely at times tonight into Sunday,
however, esp along and west of I-75. Slight chance for rogue
sprinkles/showers near KCIU, and esp. KTVC, KMBL through the
afternoon though have left this out of the TAFs attm given lack of
confidence in rain making it to the ground through tonight...perhaps
even into part of Sunday, though moderate confidence in development
of rain/storms Sunday afternoon (perhaps even as early as 6-12z
Sunday) that could track through the region...though more likely
after this TAF period ends. Have left ts out of TAFs attm, but will
need to monitor this, esp if anything develops over WI this evening.
Other primary concern will be increasing winds
tonight/Sunday...becoming generally SSE around 10kts gusting 15-
25kts, esp by Sunday AM...again, along and west of I-75.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FEF
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...FEF