277
FXUS63 KAPX 291000
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
600 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below normal temperatures through tonight with frost
  concerns, especially across interior northern Lower.

- Gradual warming trend and dry conditions for Labor Day
  Weekend into early next week.

- Rain chances return mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Broad roughing over the Great Lakes will keep northern Michigan
locked in a much cooler than normal airmass through today.
Despite plenty of sunshine developing through the day, the cold
pool aloft will hold surface temperatures below late summer
normals, with afternoon highs only making it into the low to mid
60s. Winds will be lighter than yesterday, but still carry a
northerly component, keeping conditions feeling cooler. Skies
remain generally clear through tonight as high pressure slides
overhead, providing an ideal setup for radiational cooling with
calm winds and dry air. This will allow temperatures to drop
quickly after sunset, with widespread 40s expected and colder
interior pockets slipping into the 30s. Some of the typical cold
locations, particularly across northern Lower, may even dip
into the mid to low 30s. Patchy frost continues to be a
potential concern for tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

High pressure will remain the dominant feature through the
holiday weekend, ensuring a prolonged stretch of quiet and
increasingly pleasant weather. Saturday morning will start off
chilly with 30s and 40s common, but sunshine and a moderating
airmass will push afternoon highs back into the low 70s. Sunday
and Labor Day (Monday) will feature highs well into the 70s to
near 80 under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Guidance hints
at isolated showers along lake breeze boundaries Sunday and
Monday, but with limited moisture dry conditions are expected to
prevail. Tuesday maintains the same theme- warm, dry and sunny,
with highs pushing into the upper 70s to low 80s. By midweek
next week, confidence levels lower as guidance remains
consistent in digging a shortwave and its attendant surface cold
front southeast from Canada. This looks to bring the next
chance for showers and another push of colder air. Timing and
strength of this system will need to be refined, but the middle
of next week does look to signal the end of the otherwise very
quiet and pleasant holiday stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Patchy FG/BR will likely keep widely varying flight conditions at
MBL over the next few hours. Any remaining FG/BR is expected to
dissipate quickly after sunrise. Afterwards, VFR conditions are
expected at all northern Michigan TAF sites through this evening.
Additional patchy FG/BR will be possible late tonight. Light north
winds around 5 kts today will go calm across many areas tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC