092
FXUS63 KAPX 300531
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
131 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger today due to dry conditions and breezy east
winds

- Dry conditions and warm temperatures will linger through much
  of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Current satellite and 00z upper air analysis depict a rex block
influencing much of the CONUS. Deep gulf moisture is being advected
northward towards the northern plains ahead of the western upper
trough. The upper ridge within the block is reaching all the way to
the northern border of CAN, with waves of energy streaming southward
towards the northeastern US. Near the surface, a backdoor front is
currently pushing through northern lower MI this morning. Current
observations depicting gusty conditions (20 to 30 mph) over NE lower
near Saginaw Bay as the boundary moves through. Drier air will move
through from the east behind it today. Winds will decrease through
the morning hours as the center of the surface high creeps towards
northern lower MI and gradients relax. Skies will be mostly clear.
Temperatuers will be around 3 to 5 degrees cooler than the previous
day, with one exception being coastal and coastal adjacent areas
of Lk MI. This is due to downsloping from the east winds. Although
winds are decreasing through the morning today, breezy winds will
remain elevated through the early afternoon hours. This, combined
with the dry conditions, will result in elevated fire danger with
the worst conditions late morning through the mid afternoon hours
over northwest lower.

The upper level block will persist into next week with another upper
wave approaching the eastern US Sunday into Monday. Gradients aloft
tighten as northern MI is near where the upper trough "bottoms out".
Due to warmer air in the mid levels, mixing heights will rise to
around 2 to 4 kft Sunday afternoon. Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph
could become more frequent during the later afternoon hours.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees as the drier airmass remains in
place. Another day of high fire danger is likely for Sunday
afternoon.

Monday, the axis of the trough will move through and lead to more
consistent gusts of 15 to 25 mph in spots. Dry air will likely be
reinforced behind another front, with temperatuers over NE lower
possibly cooling by a few degrees. Another afternoon of high fire
danger is possible Monday, with the potential of conditions being
widespread and lasting for a longer duration.

The block starts to break down Tuesday as the upper ridge axis
reaches MI by Wednesday. Light winds and warm to hot temperatures
will be likely mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR through the forecast period. Winds to flip NE and increase
into tonight. Strong flow above the surface will promote some
LLWS at 2kft out of the east through daybreak. Winds will
increase again through the morning (some gusts pushing 20kts)
before tapering closer to sunset.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     LHZ349.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...HAD