015
FXUS63 KAPX 101148
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
648 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impactful snow continues through the early to midday hours today
  near and south of M-72.

- Transition to lake effect snow later today through Thursday.

- More lake effect/enhanced snow later Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sfc low pressure system continues to track to the south of the
region today, across C-S Michigan as an energy filled trough moves
southeast into the OH Valley. Thus, generally a steady lighter snow
will continue across the region, waning from west to east through
the morning and midday hours, with wind gusts 20 to 30 mph through
the day, more like 25 to 35 mph during the afternoon hours. Emphasis
will be on the M-72 corridor and especially south. Thus, the morning
commute will be slick and slippery for these regions. There will be
a burst of cold advection as a colder airmass moves in from the
northwest during the midday to afternoon hours, with a region of
potential lake enhanced snowfall across GTB and points southwest.
This may lead to drops in visibility with snow and blowing snow at
the winds increase, if it materializes in a robust fashion. Because
of this potential, the advisory remains across the region but more
specifically the areas west of I-75 until 4PM. This may be deemed
unnecessary moving into the daytime hours. Along and east of I-75
the advisory remains but the snow may end ~1PM for most. Seems
unlikely that a freezing drizzle event would happen again today.
Brief look at some soundings suggests perhaps for a very brief
period there may be a low probability of freezing drizzle prior to
the cold advection and after the precip moves eastward, but not very
confident in that potential at this time.

Potent trough begins to dig across the eastern Great Lakes tonight
with a shot of cold advection to follow. Thus, winds turn more
northwesterly and the saturated boundary layer (which includes the
DGZ) rises to ~1.5km across northern Michigan. Consequently, the
lake effect machine kicks on once again tonight with an emphasis on
the NW-NNW snowbelts. Lake effect snows will continue into the day
on Thursday, waning in intensity through the day as conditions
become atmospherically unfavorable/hostile. The most persistent and
heaviest lake effect banding will be tonight into early Thursday,
with 3-5"+ of snow possible for the NW snow belts of eastern upper
and northern lower Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Day 2-3 (Thursday - Friday):

Steady northwest flow in the wake of an upper level low passing to
our east Wed night into Thurs will produce lake effect snows. Best
snows will be Wednesday night into early Thursday with rising
heights aloft and increasing H850 temps leading to a slow
fizzling through the day on Thursday. Some congruency within
guidance for the potential for accumulating snows, could be
~3-6"+ locally across NW- NNW snow belts of eastern upper and
northwest lower MI. For reference, latest HREF shows medium
probs for 4+ inches across Kalkaska, Antrim, and Chippewa
counties, some leaking into western Otsego.

Little short wave within the broader flow moves to the southeast in
the vicinity of Michigan early on Friday, perhaps keeping a few lake
induced snow showers alive. After brief short wave ridging in
advance of the next system, sfc low pressure system and cold front
will sweep across northern Michigan later on Friday ushering in
another cold airmass and the renewed chance for lake effect snow.
Read on for more details.

Days 4-7 (Saturday - Tuesday):

Trough digs down across the Great Lakes region later Friday with
subsequent low pressure system and cold frontal boundary sweeping
across northern MI. Thus, colder temperatures (~teens during the
day, single digits at night) and lake effect/enhanced snow will be a
threat later Friday and through the weekend for snow belts of
eastern upper and northwest lower MI. Looks like the potential for
quite a few embedded short waves/upper lows, which would aid in
enhancing lake effect coverage and intensity during this time.
Anyone within the N to NW snowbelts are at play, with a focus on the
NW snowbelts for several more inches of snow this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Widespread snow will continue for the next several hours across
northern Michigan, eventually moving east late this morning. VSBYs
between 1-3SM are likely underneath this snow with MVFR CIGs for
most sites. Improving conditions are anticipated as snow moves out,
potentially becoming VFR for a time late this afternoon/evening for
some locations before MVFR CIGs are expected to return tonight.
Additional lake effect snow showers could impact CIU, TVC, and MBL
at times later today through the end of the issuance period.
Otherwise, current northeast winds will strengthen and gradually
turn to northwest with time today, gusting to 25-30 kts into this
evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     MIZ020-025>036-041-042.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...DJC