538
FXUS63 KAPX 171053
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
653 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Ongoing rounds of showers continue to track across the Great Lakes
region this weekend.

-Gusty winds build this afternoon along with additional breezy
conditions this Sunday.

-Active weather continues chances of precip through the
 remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Well advertised cyclogenesis currently over the
Dakota/Manitoba border will return rounds of beneficial rainfall to
the Great Lakes region today through the weekend into early next
week. Ongoing warm air advection will continue to track easterly
across the upper plains and midwest today and eventually across the
CWA. As a result, temperatures continue to remain above normal for
mid October before the subsequent cold front returns
climatologically normal temperatures early next week.

Forecast Details...

Today...Ongoing stratiform rainfall will continue tracking easterly
through the morning hours across the region. Moisture associated
with this frontal passage is not very impressive with only a general
tenth inch or less of QPF expected below M-32 while deeper warm
moist profiles remain near and north of the bridge. Chippewa and
Mackinac counties will receive rainfall totals for most locations
ranging from 0.50" to 1.00" by the early afternoon hours. Most
rainfall will depart the CWA by 18Z, leaving behind mostly cloudy
skies and increasing southerly flow. Steepening pressure gradient
force winds increase this afternoon with expected widespread
southerly winds gusting into the upper teens to low 20s by this
evening.

Tonight...Decoupling winds near the surface will increase south-
southwest flow shortly after sunset. Flow will peak shortly before
midnight tonight with gusts in near/mid 20s for most areas and
strong Small Craft Advisory level speeds over the lakes. Approaching
cold front will return convective driven rainfall overnight tonight
through Saturday morning. Model soundings depict a relatively dry
rain layers, skinny CAPE profiles, but enough instability to produce
some embedded thunderstorms. Any moderate amounts of additional
rainfall will need to come from training storms as storm motion is
nearly parallel to boundary orientation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Saturday and Sunday...Midlevel troughing pattern currently over the
southwest digs across the country and makes its way to the Lower
Great Lakes region this Sunday. At the surface, low pressure
collides with the previously mentioned cold front resulting in a
quasi-stationary boundary set up directly over Michigan. Highest
probabilities of QPF remain between a quarter to half inch for the
majority of Northern Lower this Sunday, but low probs of higher
values over and inch remain possible. Latest guidance depicts the
majority of moisture tracking through the thumb of Michigan with
dryer air moving into the CWA from the northwest. Still a bit too
early to pinpoint exact QPF totals, but more confidence on a
solution will come with future model runs.

Monday through Thursday Outlook...Upstream midlevel ridging will
raise heights across the Great Lakes region this Monday, returning a
brief moment of quiet weather. Subsidence building will eventually
dissipate showers during the daytime Monday with highs in the 50s
for most locations. Long range guidance depicts longwave troughing
developing across the northeast CONUS Tuesday through the remainder
of the forecast period. This pattern will support continued periods
of precip through midweek next week. Weak moisture advection into
the region will keep QPF low, but enough to keep the forecast active
as we head towards late October.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

SHRA currently traversing much of the region will diminish in
coverage through the morning. MBL will see a lower frequency of
shower passage, while other sites (namely PLN) may contend with
a period of -RA at times. As such, CIU and PLN may see IFR
conditions through the morning, with MVFR likely at APN. TVC and
MBL will remain VFR despite showers.

All sites trend VFR across the board into the afternoon, with
breezy S to SSW winds kicking in. Some 20 to 25kts gusts
possible. Winds calm some in the evening, though with increasing
low level jet dynamics, anticipating the onset of some LLWS at
2,000ft (SW, 40 to 45kts). In addition, an approaching cold
front will kick off the potential for additional showers later
tonight at all sites except APN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD