


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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538 FXUS63 KAPX 171053 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 653 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Ongoing rounds of showers continue to track across the Great Lakes region this weekend. -Gusty winds build this afternoon along with additional breezy conditions this Sunday. -Active weather continues chances of precip through the remainder of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Pattern Synopsis...Well advertised cyclogenesis currently over the Dakota/Manitoba border will return rounds of beneficial rainfall to the Great Lakes region today through the weekend into early next week. Ongoing warm air advection will continue to track easterly across the upper plains and midwest today and eventually across the CWA. As a result, temperatures continue to remain above normal for mid October before the subsequent cold front returns climatologically normal temperatures early next week. Forecast Details... Today...Ongoing stratiform rainfall will continue tracking easterly through the morning hours across the region. Moisture associated with this frontal passage is not very impressive with only a general tenth inch or less of QPF expected below M-32 while deeper warm moist profiles remain near and north of the bridge. Chippewa and Mackinac counties will receive rainfall totals for most locations ranging from 0.50" to 1.00" by the early afternoon hours. Most rainfall will depart the CWA by 18Z, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies and increasing southerly flow. Steepening pressure gradient force winds increase this afternoon with expected widespread southerly winds gusting into the upper teens to low 20s by this evening. Tonight...Decoupling winds near the surface will increase south- southwest flow shortly after sunset. Flow will peak shortly before midnight tonight with gusts in near/mid 20s for most areas and strong Small Craft Advisory level speeds over the lakes. Approaching cold front will return convective driven rainfall overnight tonight through Saturday morning. Model soundings depict a relatively dry rain layers, skinny CAPE profiles, but enough instability to produce some embedded thunderstorms. Any moderate amounts of additional rainfall will need to come from training storms as storm motion is nearly parallel to boundary orientation. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Saturday and Sunday...Midlevel troughing pattern currently over the southwest digs across the country and makes its way to the Lower Great Lakes region this Sunday. At the surface, low pressure collides with the previously mentioned cold front resulting in a quasi-stationary boundary set up directly over Michigan. Highest probabilities of QPF remain between a quarter to half inch for the majority of Northern Lower this Sunday, but low probs of higher values over and inch remain possible. Latest guidance depicts the majority of moisture tracking through the thumb of Michigan with dryer air moving into the CWA from the northwest. Still a bit too early to pinpoint exact QPF totals, but more confidence on a solution will come with future model runs. Monday through Thursday Outlook...Upstream midlevel ridging will raise heights across the Great Lakes region this Monday, returning a brief moment of quiet weather. Subsidence building will eventually dissipate showers during the daytime Monday with highs in the 50s for most locations. Long range guidance depicts longwave troughing developing across the northeast CONUS Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. This pattern will support continued periods of precip through midweek next week. Weak moisture advection into the region will keep QPF low, but enough to keep the forecast active as we head towards late October. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 SHRA currently traversing much of the region will diminish in coverage through the morning. MBL will see a lower frequency of shower passage, while other sites (namely PLN) may contend with a period of -RA at times. As such, CIU and PLN may see IFR conditions through the morning, with MVFR likely at APN. TVC and MBL will remain VFR despite showers. All sites trend VFR across the board into the afternoon, with breezy S to SSW winds kicking in. Some 20 to 25kts gusts possible. Winds calm some in the evening, though with increasing low level jet dynamics, anticipating the onset of some LLWS at 2,000ft (SW, 40 to 45kts). In addition, an approaching cold front will kick off the potential for additional showers later tonight at all sites except APN. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321. && $$ SHORT TERM...SJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...HAD