485
FXUS63 KAPX 311856
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
256 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather continues through the holiday weekend.

- Rain chances return midweek with another shot of cooler temperatures
  expected Thursday - Saturday (along with continued showery
  conditions).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: ~1024mb high pressure overhead this
afternoon remains in control through Monday while ever so slowly
sliding toward the eastern seaboard. On the backside of departing
high pressure, southerly return flow expected to gradually ramp up
Tuesday-Wednesday setting the stage for increasing rain chances
midweek.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated
for the vast majority of the short term forecast period. Afternoon
cu dissipates with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Perhaps
some additional stratus develops overnight (as was seen last night)
with chances for patchy fog in areas that remain clear. Overnight
lows largely in the mid-40s to mid-50s with a few of the typically
colder spots falling to near 40 degrees.

Similar conditions anticipated Monday with midday-afternoon cu
development and high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80
degrees for most. Afternoon inland penetrating lake breezes keep
chances for a rogue shower non-zero, but far too low to include in
the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Pattern Forecast: High pressure continues to shift off to the east
Monday night - Tuesday with southerly return flow and associated
northward moisture transport slowly ramping up -- most notable late
Tuesday morning into Wednesday. This in advance of incoming closed
upper-level low pressure and low-level baroclinic zone emanating
from sfc low pressure well off to our northeast over northern
Quebec/Nunavut. Bulk of the moisture with this system originating
from the Pacific is set to arrive during the day Wednesday with
additional sfc low pressure development along the baroclinic zone
aiding to reinforce increasing rain chances from west to east across
northern MI. Fairly notable temperatures drop anticipated post fropa
with wrap around moisture, an increasingly favorable over-water
thermal gradient and the occasional reinforcing mid-level wave set
to bring continued showery conditions at times Thursday through
Saturday -- most numerously downwind of the big lakes. A true fall-
like end of the week on tap.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of concern through early this
week with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-
70s to near 80 degrees on Tuesday.

Rain chances arrive from west to east during the day Wednesday into
Wednesday evening. Fumes of instability may yield a rogue/embedded
thunderstorm, but no glaring concern for severe weather despite
increasing deep layer shear through this time. Temperatures in the
upper 60s and 70s at least through early afternoon Wednesday trend
downward post cold frontal passage with latest trends supporting 40s
and low 50s Wednesday night. Not much of a rebound anticipated
Thursday with H8 temps falling to 1-4 C with sfc high temps
struggling to reach above the mid-50s for most areas. Combine those
temps with continued showery conditions and occasionally blustery
northwest winds to yield a real fall-like feel.

While temps may rebound a couple of degrees each day through the
start of the weekend, pretty similar days to Thursday are expected
both Friday and Saturday.  A reinforcing mid-level wave rounding the
base of the larger parent trough during the day Friday likely to
increase shower chances/coverage for a period of time with lingering
lake enhanced rain shower chances continuing all the way through
Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Cloud cover will clear this evening carrying clear skies for all
sites into Monday morning. Patchy BR will drop VSBYs to MVFR and IFR
at KMBL between 0800Z and 1300Z Monday morning while the remainder
of the sites should remain VFR through the entire forecast period.
Low level cu field is expected to develop by midday Monday across
the region. Light winds are expected to continue with variable
directions due to inland penetrating lake breeze processes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SJC