280
FXUS63 KAPX 161758
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1258 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow ramps up into the day today, lasting into
  Monday. Primary concerns are quick drops in visibility and
  localized hazardous travel conditions, especially across the
  eastern U.P.

- Largely precip-free through the middle of the week with
  gradually warming temperatures.

- Rain returns late this week into this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Northwest flow lake effect snow showers continue this morning.
The most persistent and intense band has been over northwest
lower, from Petoskey to Vanderbilt to Lewiston. Accumulations
have been minor so far, less than one inch in most areas.
Although the heavier snow showers, combined with gusty winds,
have created very low visibility in some areas. We may see a
more persistent band develop over eastern upper, extending into
far northeast lower this afternoon and evening where low level
convergence may be maximized.

A challenging headline management day, as snow amounts are
relatively minor with surface temperatures in the lower to mid
30s - but visibility drops to near zero at times briefly with
snow showers.  Eastern upper remains in the advisory, as they
have the best opportunity to see advisory level snow amounts
through tonight. I also kept northeast lower in the advisory,
with the potential for a better snow band to develop along the
Lake Huron coast this afternoon and evening. The remainder of
northern lower, I removed from the advisory. The snow showers
are just too transitory with marginal surface temperatures. And
over the past few hours, the snow has been focused outside of
the headline area. I issued an SPS for low visibility and will
also message hazardous travel with a graphicast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 243 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing regime establishing itself over northeast NOAM will lead
to continued cold air advection across the upper Great Lakes.
Resulting northwest flow and continued overlake instability (850mb
temps roughly -7 to -10 Celsius) will lead to an uptick in lake
effect snow activity in the snowbelts, along with some influence
from Lake Huron to bring some snowfall into Presque Isle and Alpena
counties through the forecast period.

Forecast Details:

Lake induced instability is currently building across the upper
Great Lakes, with just enough lingering synoptic moisture to lead to
an outburst of lake effect snowfall across the region today into
early tonight. Resulting northwest flow will lead to three distinct
areas of focus for lake effect snows. It should be noted that
activity through daybreak will be loosely organized banding that
devolves into a cellular mode... then transitioning back to banding
overnight. Height rises build aloft as surface high pressure
intrudes, and this will begin to suppress this activity late tonight
and into Monday. While snow may struggle to accumulate efficiently
initially, anticipation is that as temperatures reach into the lower
30s and snowfall intensity increases, accumulations may begin to
transpire. Regardless of accumulations... the rapid onset nature of
the snowfall, gusty winds, and warm roads with falling temps could
lead to a nearly full-blown snow squall setup through the day today
where travel conditions drastically deteriorate over the course of a
mile or two on area thoroughfares impacted by lake snows. The three
primary impact regions are found below:

Eastern Upper: CAMs are in pretty high agreement that this area will
probably see the highest amounts of snowfall of the three impacted
areas. Area of focus will generally be across western Chippewa and
portions of both western and eastern Mackinac, perhaps occasionally
leaking into the Mackinac Bridge at times. Most areas across eastern
upper probably net 0.5 to 2.0 inches of accumulation by Monday
morning... but the aforementioned area of focus will be on the
docket to see a general 3 to 5 inches of accumulation... locally
7"+. The ongoing Winter Weather Advisory will remain in place.

NW Lower: Much more in the way of squally activity expected through
the day today, which will impact the US 131 and I-75 corridors.
Marginal temperatures through midday may hinder accums on roadways
until sundown and beyond once temps fall into the 20s and snow bands
organize more. Anticipating most activity to occur north and east of
Grand Traverse Bay. Most of this area probably sees 0.5 to 2.0
inches of accumulation through Monday morning. The area where the
heaviest snowfall focuses the most will run from NW to SE across
Antrim, eastern and northern Kalkaska, western Crawford, and
northern Roscommon, where there is potential for 2 to 4 inches of
snowfall, locally 5"+ by Monday morning. As such, a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for the aforementioned counties through 12z
/ 7am Monday, with amounts being secondary to potential for those
rapidly changing travel conditions.

Cheboygan, Presque Isle, and Alpena counties: This area is admittedly
riddled with uncertainty... but CAMs have been honing in on
leftover lake effect banding from eastern upper crossing over
Lake Huron and impacting these areas. For Cheboygan County, it
would primarily be the immediate coast / US 23 corridor east of
Cheboygan proper. This area stretches south and east across
northern / eastern portions of Alpena and Presque Isle counties...
including Rogers City, the Grand Lake / Long Lake area, and
possibly into the city of Alpena. Much of the same as the other
two regions... largely squally through the day with rapidly
changing travel conditions along the US 23 corridor. Banding
becomes more organized later tonight and with cooling temps
should bring more efficient accumulations around / after sunset.
A general 1 to 4 inches of snowfall (locally up to 5") is
possible by Monday morning across this region, with highest
confidence across northern / eastern Presque Isle and Alpena
counties, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been hoisted
through 12z / 7am Monday... again with amounts being secondary
to potential for rapidly changing travel conditions. Confidence
is not high enough to include Cheboygan County at this
juncture... but any subtle shifts in wind direction may
necessitate an expansion if that band can be forced farther
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Ridging over the Plains will slowly force its way into the Great
Lakes Monday into Tuesday, bringing with it the influences of
surface high pressure, which will taper lake effect snowfall through
the day Monday... and leading to largely dry conditions across the
region Tuesday through the start of Thursday. Temperatures are set
to moderate as well, with highs in the 30s Monday rising to the mid-
to-upper 40s through Thursday. Next batch of sensible weather looks
to hold until Thursday night / Friday as a system works into the
Great Lakes and delivers rain chances to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

KCIU, KPLN, and KAPN will remain mostly VFR this afternoon with
TEMPO bands of -SHSN, MVFR cigs, and MVFR VISBY`s through this
evening. -SHSN then slowly taper off overnight, continuing VFR
flight categories through the reminder of the forecast period
along with breezy northwest gusting into the 20s.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ018-024-
     086-095-096.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...SJC