541
FXUS63 KAPX 191044
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
644 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant today and Thursday, though cool tonight

- Showers and storms likely Friday-Saturday

- Cooler by Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Surface cold front is settling southward across the southern lakes.
Shower coverage in northern lower MI is gradually decreasing,
though low clouds are expanding in northern lower MI. Cooler/
drier air is making inroads into the northern lakes, with dew
points already in the 40s in much of upper MI.

Relatively tranquil over the next couple of days, as upstream
cool/dry air overspreads the region. Some opportunity for early
morning fog/low clouds in the rain-cooled and -moistened
airmass in northern MI. Once any of that erodes, mostly sunny
skies expected. Abundant sunshine today and Thursday will
largely counter the cooler incoming airmass, leaving us with
seasonable max temps. However, a cool night is forecast tonight,
with most of the interior dipping well into the 40s.

Upper low over Hudson Bay will make slow eastward progress this
week. However, as it departs, it gets replaced by energy diving
southward out of central Canada. This carves out an upper low in the
Great Lakes region by late in the weekend. Warm advection in advance
of the digging system will start to increase cloud cover and
eventually pops, beginning Thu night. Chance for showers arrives in
western/northern areas Thu night. Showers/storms are then likely at
times Friday into Saturday.

Cooler but still moist air will enter by the close of the weekend.
Some showers chances will continue, especially downwind of the Great
Lakes. (Yup, its about to be /that/ time of the year...for a day or
two.) Moderating temps early next week, with for now only small
precip chances, until system timing becomes more certain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Early morning MBL this morning, and perhaps again late tonight.
Last nights showers have exited east, and some post-frontal
MVFR clouds will also head east. MBL has some shallow valley
fog, which will burn off fairly quickly. Otherwise solidly VFR,
with drier air working in. Light nw-erly winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ