377
FXUS63 KAPX 011723
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
123 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger today due to dry conditions and breezy east
winds

- Dry conditions will linger through Thursday, with temperatures
becoming hot mid week.

- Next rain chances could return near the end of the work week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Current water vapor satellite shows the upper level omega block
continuing to influence much of the CONUS this morning. The
upper low on the west side of the ridge reaching into CAN is
producing stormy activity over the northern plains. On the
eastern side of the upper ridge, drier air from interior CAN is
racing down Quebec and Ontario CAN towards the Great Lakes,
which is due to a shortwave rotating through the upper trough
over the northeast US. Although some high clouds are filtering
in over the SW part of the LP, the shortwave approaching
northern lower will keep those out of the area today resulting
in another day of clear skies. Surface high pressure will build
in behind the east push (or weak side-door front) this morning.
A building pressure gradient will allow for breezy east winds
today of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 10 to 20 mph (higher
along the LK MI coast and through the straits). Downsloping east
winds over coastal areas of NW lower (south of Little Traverse
Bay) will help temperatures warm into the low 80s. With dry air
persisting over the region, elevated fire danger will be seen
today due to the winds and dry conditions. Very unstable
conditions will also exist up to 10 kft.

Winds will diminish this evening, becoming calm tonight. Ideal
radiational cooling will allow for patchy frost to form over
typical cooler spots of interior locations (high valleys).

Tuesday, the upper ridge will start to drift over northern MI. 850 C
temps will rise a couple of degrees Tuesday and again on Wednesday
as the ridge continues to remain over northern MI. Winds remain
light, skies remain sunny, however temperatures will begin to warm
into the low to mid 80s over most of northern MI. Lake breeze winds
will also be seen in the afternoon hours.

Thursday, the block weakens as the upper closed low over central-
south CAN starts to move east. Winds will begin to turn southwest
ahead of the approaching system. Temperatures remain warm, and the
airmass will remain dry` however winds will be breezy with the
chances for gusts. The wrapped up moisture within the low will
finally reach norther MI Friday (per global deterministic guidance),
and bring shower and storm chances to the area Friday into Saturday.
Although most ensemble guidance does have some form of precipitation
during this time, a spread of amounts exist. This range does remain
at or less than three quarters of an inch. It is more difficult for
global guidance to pick up on heavier precipitation within storm
chances, so this could change.

Beyond Friday, models begin to diverge. Warmer temperatures will
persist, however moisture content and rain chances remain up for
debate Sunday through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Continued high pressure and precipitaiton-free weather pattern
will support VFR condtions through the entirety of the TAF
period. Current east to northeast winds will subside tonight,
followed by light winds this Tuesday mainly from the north to
northeast.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     344-345.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...SJC