740
FXUS63 KAPX 031934
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
234 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures through Wednesday, cooling closer to
  seasonal normals for the end of the week.

- Rain continues periodically through late week with occasional
  rumbles of thunder possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

The upper level pattern this afternoon features deep troughing
over the central CONUS acquiring a slight negative tilt as it
lifts from the central Plains towards the Upper Mississippi
River Valley, with difluent flow out ahead of it over the Upper
Great Lakes. At the surface, an elongated trough spans from the
central Plains to Lake Superior, with rain showers ongoing
along and ahead of an associated frontal zone from Wisconsin
into Upper Michigan. As such, the bulk of precipitation over our
area today has been confined to the eastern U.P. while the
northern Lower has remained mostly dry. The best precipitation
chances will remain over the eastern U.P. and northwestern Lower
through into tonight as a surface low tracks from the eastern
Dakotas to western Lake Superior, with locations east of US-131
staying mostly dry into Wednesday morning. Expect fairly minimal
precipitation amounts through tonight as the best forcing
resides to the north and west, with a tenth to a quarter inch
of rain possible for the eastern U.P. and generally less than a
tenth across the northern Lower.

Northern Michigan remains in the warm sector through Wednesday,
allowing for another seasonably warm day with highs in the mid
to upper 60s across most of the area. Rain looks to spread back
into the area from the south and west in the afternoon as a
secondary surface low lifts into the Upper MS River Valley and
swings a front across Lower Michigan. Precipitable water values
will remain well above an inch, near the climatological max for
early November, into the afternoon. However, precipitation
amounts still look rather limited as the better forcing remains
displaced to the west through most of the day.

Showery weather persists into Thursday as the upper low
meanders over the Upper MS River Valley and then phases with a
northern stream shortwave crossing Hudson Bay, finally shifting
the trough eastward into the Great Lakes. High temperatures
will subsequently drop closer to seasonal norms in the 50s as
850 mb temps cool close to 0 C over the eastern U.P. and 3-5 C
over the northern Lower by Thursday evening. Cool and showery
weather lingers into Friday as the upper low remains over Lower
Michigan, with continued cold air advection dropping high into
the 40s for Friday afternoon. There is some indication of drier
weather for the weekend as troughing shifts eastward and
surface high pressure builds in from the west, allowing temps to
rebound back into the 50s by Sunday and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions persist for most sites through the first part of
the 18Z TAF period, with CIU being the most restricted (LIFR
anticipated till 12Z tomorrow) and APN being the least restricted
(MVFR lifting to VFR by ~21Z). This is thanks to system clouds &
moisture associated with elongated troughing stretched out across
the northwest edge of the CWA. In general, conditions should improve
at least one category (to MVFR/VFR) during the middle of the TAF
period prior to deteriorating tomorrow afternoon. With VIS less
of a concern, restrictions are driven by low CIGS with
accompanying -SH/- SHRA. All TAF sites include long-lived
periods of LLWS to 25-35 kt overnight tonight as a LLJ takes up
residence overhead. Surface winds tend to remain light during
this time as stability is not conducive to mixing.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MQT
AVIATION...MQT