952
FXUS63 KAPX 171810
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
210 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/storm chances return Tuesday. Severe storms are not
expected.

- Slightly cooler temperatures in store through the middle of the
week.

- Increasing shower/storm chances end of the week into the weekend.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A fairly energetic west/northwest upper flow across the Great Lakes
with several embedded shortwave troughs. One trough with an
associated surface cold front will swing through Tuesday, with
shower/storm chances. After high pressure moves in for the
second half of the week, additional troughing develops heading
into the weekend with increasing precipitation chances.

Upstream shortwave trough and attendant surface front will approach
the area Tuesday, increasing shower/storm chances. The best rain
chances will likely come later in the afternoon into the
evening, as embedded shortwave energy rides along the front
Overall, this is not a very impressive feature with limited
instability or effective shear. As previous shifts have
mentioned, this system resembles our Sunday system, with
scattered precipitation but nothing widespread (and some areas
likely receiving little to no rainfall). Any precipitation ends
during the first half of Tuesday night, as high pressure begins
to build in from the northwest.

A potentially stronger shortwave will help to carve out a deeper
trough across the Great Lakes as we head toward the weekend. This
certainly looks like it has the potential to bring more widespread
rain, although model consistency has been lacking with recent rain
systems, so confidence is low in the details at this time.
Temperatures near seasonal norms through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Current Cu field and northwest flow will subside this evening
followed by patchy BR development near KCIU, KPLN, and KMBL.
Mainly VFR is expected this Tuesday, but -SHRA and -TSRA and
subsequent MVFR will likely be observed after 18Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...SJC