737
FXUS63 KAPX 070923
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
523 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms return Wednesday into Thursday. Locally
  heavy rain the main concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Short wave ridging over northern Michigan today, which will be
replaced with more west to east flow with embedded short waves mid
week. Consequently, high temperatures will increase by a couple of
degrees this afternoon, with mid to upper 80s most locations outside
of the immediate lake shores. Bit of instability manifests across
the eastern UP today, but lack of forcing will likely keep our neck
of the woods dry through this evening. Although precipitation
chances begin to increase overnight due to the moisture advection
from the west, much of the meaningful precipitation will hold off
until Wednesday morning, with chances remaining through Thursday.

Several pieces of quick moving short wave energy will influence
northern Michigan early Wednesday through portions of Thursday.
Extensive column moisture will overspread the area on Wednesday,
with the main lift from the upper level features across the Eastern
UP and into far northern lower MI. Best instability on Wednesday
will be across this area as well, coinciding with the likely best
chance for heavier precipitation. There is some spread in model
guidance to some extent and intensity of precipitation, but several
pieces of guidance (ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, EPS) suggest the potential
for a swath of heavy rain across the Eastern UP/NW lower Michigan
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The forcing does slowly shift
southward Wednesday night into Thursday, and thus showers and
thunderstorms move southward across northern lower Michigan with
time. Outside of the E UP, northern portions of lower Michigan and
more generally northwest lower Michigan will, in theory, have the
best chance for heavy rain. West to east motion of thunderstorms
could lead to training storms and enhanced rainfall. WPC maintains a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the E UP
and northwest lower MI Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) on Thursday across much of northern MI.

Localized flooding will be possible assuming the best forcing and
instability manifests over our neck of the woods. Taking a quick
look at flash flood guidance suggests lingering sensitivities across
the Tip of the Mitt and Leelanau Peninsula/portions of Antrim and
Charlevoix county (via the heavy rainfall from several days ago, or
a week, whenever it was). Will need to keep an eye on these
locations if training storms produce heavy rainfall. Although there
could be a few stronger storms given the increased flow aloft
(Marginal Risk level 1 of 5) Wednesday into Wednesday night,
relatively skinny CAPE and column moisture likely favor heavy rain.
A few stronger storms could contain some enhanced winds, though.

Behemoth of an upper high builds across the Intermountain West and
into the Nation`s midsection this weekend into early next week. In
response, northwest flow is expected across northern portions of the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The north and eastward extent of this
feature will determine how dry northern Michigan stays through next
week, and how warm/hot. Current forecast suggests a warming trend
late weekend into early next week along with predominantly dry
conditions, but this could change depending on the upper highs
positioning and subsequent trough/energy depth and strength to the
north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions expected through this taf cycle. Mostly sunny skies
today with just a few high based cumulus and some passing thin
high clouds at times. Clouds do increase tonight, especially
across KCIU. May even see a few showers and thunderstorms impact
that location toward sunrise Wednesday, but cloud bases should
remain VFR. Light winds continue, with local lake breeze
development expected this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MSB