859
FXUS63 KAPX 061029
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
629 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Continued favorable fire weather conditions today

-Frost/freeze concerns again tonight and Thursday night.

-Seasonably cool and quiet conditions continue through the remainder
of the work week with minimal precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Midlevel closed low pressure centered over Hudson Bay with an
attached longwave trough extending southward continues to influence
the Great Lakes Region. Cold, dry air from the north will keep
temperatures seasonably cool for this time of year, with highs
remaining in the upper 40s to low 50s today through Thursday. At the
same time, strong midlevel flow currently over the central CONUS
extending through the Ohio Valley will prevent moisture from
advecting into Northern Michigan through the midweek. Only chance of
precipitation returns toward the end of the work week as small
embedded height waves pivot along contours through the Great Lakes
Region. Enough energy will produce some light scattered
precipitation through this weekend to accompany this seasonably cool
weather as we head into mid May.

Forecast Details:

Favorable fire weather conditions continue today... Conditions
remain the same as yesterday as dry low-level atmospheric air will
result in favorable fire weather again. Latest high-resolution
guidance depicts surface dew points falling into the teens this
afternoon due to efficient daytime mixing down to the surface.
Temperatures at 850mb below freezing will keep highs in the upper
40s to low 50s again via adiabatic heating. Winds of 10-15 knots a
few thousand feet above the surface will mix down, resulting in
gusts around 20 mph.

Frost/freeze concerns remain for tonight and Thursday night... With
850mb temperatures remaining below freezing overnight and mostly
clear skies, efficient radiational cooling processes will drop lows
to the low 30s across the CWA. Typically colder areas such as
interior Northern Lower and Eastern Upper are expected to drop below
freezing tonight while areas closer to marine environments will only
experience frost development as their lows remain in the low 30s.

Seasonably cool temperatures and light lingering precipitation are
expected this weekend... No impactful weather is anticipated through
the remainder of the forecast period as well-advertised troughing
keeps temperatures slightly below normal for mid-May and moisture
remains cut off to our south. A few embedded height disturbances
provide enough energy to produce light precipitation at times
Thursday through Sunday. While the majority of the time will remain
mostly cloudy, localized areas observing a few hundredths of
measurable rainfall are likely. Most of the CWA will only observe
enough rainfall to wet pavement until an embedded shortwave develops
a cold front and sweeps across the region Sunday morning. Subsidence
aloft will likely return next week, keeping most areas dry with high
pressure and temperatures in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period,
with just some passing high based clouds and a developing
higher based cumulus later this morning and afternoon. Northwest
winds today, a bit gusty during the afternoon. Winds go light again
tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018-
     021>024-026>030-032>036-098-099.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ020-025-031-
     041-042.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG