665
FXUS63 KAPX 230014
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
814 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Cold front brings shower and embedded thunder chances tonight into
Saturday, favoring eastern Upper, the Straits, and tip of the Mitt.
- Noticeably cooler temperatures and lake-induced shower chances
Sunday into early next week.
- Waterspout potential through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Cold front begins to move into the region tonight.  The best
moisture and forcing will be displaced north closer to the surface
low that will continue to deepen and eventually stall closer to
James Bay.  The most favorable area for more widespread shower and
thunder coverage favors eastern upper and possibly the Tip of the
Mitt, which will sit within a more favorable H8-H7 theta-e ridge
with PWAT`s near 1.60" and better low level convergence. Further
south, mainly scattered showers along and west of I-75. As far as
potential rain totals tonight, probabilistic guidance shows
probabilities for 0.50+" of rain across parts of eastern upper, with
values as high as 40%, with less than 10% probs for heavier rain
south of the bridge.  Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s tonight,
warmest near the Lake Michigan coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Cold front will continue to slide through the region Saturday
morning, with showers/storms ending from west-east.  Still some
question as to how quickly the precipitation will exit toward Lake
Huron, which may keep showers/storms going longer over northeast
lower. After some initial subsidence after fropa, we should see a
few diurnal pop up showers (storms?) during the afternoon with still
favorable moisture/instability parameters on forecast soundings.
Highs in the 70s with breezy west winds gusting 20+ mph at times.

The main story heading into the the second half of the weekend and
early next week is the substantial cooldown with lake effect (yes
- I said lake effect) showers and possibly waterspouts.  This is the
result of a longwave trough anchoring itself (at least temporarily)
near James Bay with several embedded shortwaves rotating through the
flow and across northern Michigan.  Lake effect rain showers will
ramp up on Sunday in west-northwest flow areas, continuing through
Monday.  Plenty of deep moisture and overlake instability, with the
possibility that some favored lake effect areas see greater than
0.50" of rain through this time. The longwave troughing breaks down
and moves east by Tuesday, with high pressure building in for
midweek. Temperatures may struggle to reach 60 in some areas on
Monday, especially where cloud cover and showers are most numerous.
Some moderation in temperatures thereafter, although still running
slightly below normal for most of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 752 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

-SHRA and iso TSRA moving from northwest to southeast tonight,
 impacting KCIU and KPLN earliest along with lower CIGs. CIGs
 approach MVFR perhaps briefly IFR before lifting during the
 daytime hours. This band of showers and embedded thunder will
 move into the TVC MBL AOB 8 to 12Z with the potential for brief
 MVFR CIGs. Activity moves eastward during the morning on
 Saturday with shower and iso storm chances for APN. Slight
 chance for -TSRA during the afternoon as well, mainly APN as
 winds shift to the northwest.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JLD