282
FXUS63 KAPX 300618 CCA
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
146 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Times of light to moderate rain will linger through Monday.

- Medium to high confidence (75% chance) for widespread 0.5 to  1"
of rain over northern lower by Monday evening with a swath of 1 to
2" near and south of M-72.

- Unsettled pattern continues chances for rain through the work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Current radar and satellite depict widespread stratiform rain with a
band of moderate rain at the northern most tip of a LLJ reaching
into northern MI. Surface rain guage reports show at most one to two
tenths under this more moderate precipitation. Deep moisture is
present over the western Great Lakes region, thanks to a plume of
Pacific moisture streaming into the northern Plains over the Rockies
and a more shallow and narrow Gulf tap moving over the central
plains (towards WI). In the upper levels, a positively tilted upper
trough over the Pac NW bottoms out over the SoCal coast. This
feature has broken a larger upper ridge down and moved it over the
central Rockies and plains. A focused jet over WY/MT has initiated a
few lee side lows over the Dakotas (which has driven the shallow
Gulf moisture transport towards the northern plains). As another lee
side low spins over SD this morning, the surface warm front remains
draped over southern MN and WI with a weak extent into the southern
L.P. of MI. The warm sector aloft is reaching farther north, and
hints of this is seen with blossoming showers over central MI
(proven by the presence of elevated instability within the LLJ).
The surface cyclone will weaken and drift to the east today. As
temperatures south of the warm front rise this afternoon, a 10F
degree temp gradient at the surface should set up between the
northern and southern L.P. with the actual boundary resting
somewhere near M-55. As elevated instability lingers and lower
level convergence forms today, quasi- zonal flow aloft will
track waves of showers and rain bands from west to east.
Soundings depict warm rain processes with WCD of 15 kft
possible.

As the moist airmass continues tonight, the LLJ will strengthen and
refocus. By this time, the upper closed low will be slowly
tracking across the international border (near MT). A stronger
jet over MT/WY will help initiate another surface low over
SD/MN. Guidance keeps this farther north than the previous,
which should keep the LLJ pointed towards northern MI. Another
band of moderate rain will track across northern MI late this
evening. The main difference will be a more defined presence of
the warm front draped over northern MI from west to east. A
couple hundred J/kg of elevated instability will be present
(especially farther west), however more moderate rain will have
an easier time forming along the frontal boundary. Off and on
light to moderate rain will continue into early Monday morning with
pockets of more steady moderate rain due to training along the
forcing mechanism (front). Low chances for thunder due to the
lower instability present.

Shower chances will shift to the north during the day on Monday
as the upper closed low lifts into CAN and drags a trailing
cold front with it over the U.P. Drier conditions and a brief
reduction in temperatures will be seen Tuesday. The warm sector
quickly returns early Wednesday ahead of another system moving
across the northern plains. This keeps temperatures above normal
and rain chances in the forecast for the end of the work week.

Expected Rain Amounts: Widespread half of an inch to an inch is
expected over northern lower by late Monday, with a swath of 1
to 2" along and south of M- 72. Locally higher amounts will be
possible where moderate rain can train over this 36 hour window.
There is moderate to high confidence (75%) in the bands of
moderate rain producing 1 to 2" due to the deep moisture present
and thus warm rain processes, as well as the forcing features
(nose of the LLJ and along the warm frontal boundary). Most CAMs
do not overlap these forcing features for long periods of time,
however an outlier or two does (and the resulting rain amounts
are very high). Those very high amounts are not a likely outcome
due to the movement and shifts of the forcing features.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Upstream trends raise confidence that cigs will continue to gradually
lower early this morning, likely producing widespread MVFR to
IFR conditions through much of the morning. Likely to even see
some vis restricting mist develop as well. Some improvement in
cigs expected heading through this afternoon into early this
evening. Current axis of light to moderate rain will push off
to the east early this morning. Additional showers expected at
times today into this evening, although confidence in overall
coverage and organization of those showers remains low. Light
winds through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Soils over NW lower and eastern upper are fairly dry, with 6 hr FFG
of at least 3". Pockets of lower FFG exist in NE lower due to recent
rains, specifically Alpena, Preque Isle, Ogemaw, and Iosco counties.
The 6 hr FFGs are closer to 1.5" here. Due to this, some spots over
the aformentioned counties could be more susceptible to run off and
thus collection of water in low spots/hilly terrain along with,
minor ponding on roadways, and quick rises in creeks. With the
forecast in mind, the areas adjacent to Saginaw Bay are the most at
risk for seeing these minor flooding impacts; as this is where the
lower FFGs exists and higher rainfall amounts are expected (swath of
1-2"). Due to the more gradual nature of rain over 36 hours,
flooding impacts are expected to remain minor. None of the
forecasted river gauges show significant rises, including the HEFS
probabilistic outlooks. The Manistee at Sherman is the only river
gauge that shows a 5 to 10% chance of touching Action Stage, with
the Rifle showing a 5 to 10% chance of approaching Action Stage.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...MSB
HYDROLOGY...ELD