941
FXUS63 KAPX 111831
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
231 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low end shower/storm chances through midweek, marginal severe
  risk Wednesday.

- Increasing shower/storm chances this weekend with
  temperatures slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Although widespread impactful weather may be limited across the
northern Great Lakes much of this week, a still challenging forecast
with several impulses in fast west/northwest flow.  This results in
a myriad of model solutions and lower end precipitation chances
through Thursday, largely dominated by mesoscale processes and
nebulous forcing. A stronger upper shortwave trough slides toward
the Great Lakes this weekend, resulting in higher precipitation
chances and cooler temperatures.

The primary instability/moisture corridor remains well to the south
of the area the next several days in proximity to a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary draped across the northern Ohio
Valley. Hints of some remnant convection possibly trying to
move toward the area tonight out of Wisconsin. Low confidence in
this given waning instability and forcing but at least isolated
potential. Areas of fog also possible again tonight. Wednesday
features weak flow and likely lake breeze dominated forcing for
any convection. This places the best shower/storm chances closer
to Lake Huron in northern lower and interior sections of
eastern upper. We may also see some scattered convection fire
over southern parts of the area along a diffuse trough axis.
Favorable shear profiles and some buoyancy, but once again the
best moisture/forcing remain well to our south. SPC has us in a
marginal severe risk during this timeframe. Additional low end
shower/storm chances on Thursday, especially across southern
parts of our area (south of M-32).

Return flow around departing high pressure for the weekend,
combined with a much stronger upper level shortwave trough and
associated surface low, will bring much better shower/storm
chances to northern Michigan. Cooler and drier for early next
week behind this feature. Overall, temperatures will run near or
slightly below normal for the weekend into the first part of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions continue this afternoon with mostly sunny skies
across Northern Michigan. Lake breeze processes will cause surface
winds to continuously change direction until becoming light and VRB
overnight. MVFR cloud cover builds overnight mainly between
0600Z and 1300Z at all TAF sites, while BR and FG development at
KMBL will drop VSBY`s down to IFR through early Wednesday
morning. CIG`s quickly dissipate Saturday morning, returning to
VFR at all sites through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...SJC