805
FXUS63 KAPX 292053
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
453 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances and coverage increase tonight into Sunday with
locally heavy rainfall possible along/south of M-72.

- Additional rain and seasonably warm temperatures expected next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Highly-amplified ridging spanning from central Canada down into the
Midwest and Great Lakes will continue to slide east through the
remainder of this weekend into early next week. Multiple waves/jet
maxima embedded in the mid/upper-level flow look to progress
overhead through Sunday. Meanwhile, south-southwest low-level flow
will advect an increasingly moist airmass into the Great Lakes as a
warm front looks to lift into the Great Lakes and drape across the
middle of the state by early next week. More organized shortwaves
may slide over the region during the middle of next week before
amplified ridging appears it will grasp much of the central CONUS
heading into the holiday weekend.

Forecast Discussion:

As the previous forecaster discussed, many rounds of showers and
perhaps a few storms are expected across northern Michigan over the
next several days with the primary concern being localized heavy
rainfall potential late tonight into Sunday. Widespread light rain
across Wisconsin and Lake Michigan continues to work towards
northern Michigan this afternoon with latest obs/guidance
reinforcing belief that measurable rainfall greater than a few
hundredths of an inch is unlikely from this activity before sunset.
Initially dry low-level air may make it difficult for falling precip
to reach the surface at first, and ongoing rain may continue to
weaken over the next few hours as it works into western portions of
the area.

Regardless, rain chances/coverage is expected to increase with time
tonight -- especially late tonight through Sunday morning. Warm
advection will help generate repeated, widespread showers and a few
storms along/north of the aforementioned boundary. The main question
at this time will be exactly where these showers will form and train
as latest guidance creeps the favored corridor slightly further
south with time. That said, the best chances for steady rain will
come along and south of M-72. PWATs around 1.8" will support
efficient rainfall, and locations that see training showers could
see 1"+ of rainfall by Sunday afternoon. While potential is low,
localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

Looking ahead, additional rounds of showers and a few storms will be
possible through much of the upcoming week as aforementioned waves
work across the region. Seasonably warm temperatures are also
expected across the area through the first half of the week. While
rain chances may impact the extent of high temperatures, afternoon
readings may warm into the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 449 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions expected through this evening with some light
showers falling out of a relatively high based cloud deck.
Expect cigs to gradually lower during the early morning on
Sunday, likely producing widespread MVFR to IFR conditions into
Sunday morning. Likely to even see some vis restricting mist
develop as well. Additional showers expected at times right
through Sunday, although confidence in overall coverage and
organization of those showers remains low. Light winds through
the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MSB