523
FXUS63 KAPX 112322
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
722 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible tonight

- Brief warming for Sunday and Monday

- Clouds, cooler temperatures, and brief rain chances return late
Monday into Tuesday

- Seasonal temperatures, light winds, and generally sunny skies mid
week into next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Satellite currently shows an upper level cut off low spinning over
eastern Lk Huron and the Ontario Peninsula. Surface winds have
turned northeast to east over much of northern lower and eastern
upper this afternoon. Winds remain breezy with occasional gusts up
to 20 mph over coastal adjacent areas of NE lower. A continuous
layer of stratus continues over most of the state, with some lake
enhanced cumulus starting to show breaks over NE lower.

The upper low will stall over western NY/PA for tonight and Sunday.
Gradients will start to relax as the feature weakens, leading to
light winds and the ability of the BL to decouple tonight. The
strongest decoupling will be where skies can clear out. Clouds will
continue to scatter out this evening and tonight, however some areas
could see more dense CU (NE lower). Patchy fog will be possible
around most of the northern lower peninsula, however pockets of more
dense fog will likely be seen where skies can remain clear (interior
locations of the northern peninsula).

A system approaching from the west will increase the surface
pressure gradient once again, strengthening southeast winds early
Sunday. This will lead to fog dissipating rather quickly Sunday
morning. Upper ridging will move overhead Sunday as a warm sector
approaches (the LL warm sector will remain over WI/MN Sunday).
Breezy southeast winds will become gusty Sunday afternoon with gusts
up to 15 to 20 mph (stronger over the northern tip of Lk Huron and
inland areas adjacent in eastern upper). Skies will be mostly sunny
with afternoon temperatures warming 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The approaching system will lift to the NE over CAN, brining a
trailing cold front over the state late Monday into Tuesday.
Guidance has been coming into better agreement on how the
interaction of an upper ridge, cut off low and approaching upper
trough will play out over the Great Lakes region. Regional guidance
and the beginning runs of the CAMs are even coming to a similar
conclusion, where the features are focused elsewhere and northern MI
remains on the fringes where forcing is washed out and not aligned.
There still remains a decent spread on available moisture (global
ensemble PWATs range from 0.6" to 1.3" early through late Monday)
and how quickly the cold front moves through (a bimodal trace exists
for ensemble PWATs early Tuesday, with the more moist scenario being
slightly favored over the drier). All in all, this is more talking
to the extent and length of cloud cover & intermittent light rain
as there is growing confidence that we lack appreciable forcing for
widespread beneficial precipitation.

The most likely case, is breezy south winds Monday with increasing
cloud cover over NW lower and eastern upper. Temperatuers will warm
as the warm sector moves over MI (forecasted highs reach into the
high 60s to low 70s). Little moisture and a decent LL cap will
likely keep afternoon showers/storms at bay ahead of the approaching
front. Clouds with light rain and isolated embedded showers along
the boundary will move through the northern peninsula late Monday
into early Tuesday. Some rain could reach down to the tip of the
mitt, however rain amounts will likely remain well under a quarter
of an inch. If chances for convection grow over the next few days,
rain amounts will likely increase - however that is not seen at this
time.

Surface high pressure builds in behind the front and brings seasonal
conditions back to the area for the majority of next week. Overnight
low temperatures could reach freezing or below starting early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Think there will be some patchy fog tonight, esp where clouds
scatter out this evening, with lowest cigs/visbys (IFR or lower)
likely between 8z and 12z...improving between 12-14z.
Otherwise...expecting cloud bases to fluctuate around 2500-3500ft
through the period at the TAF sites with MVFR conditions trying to
hang on. However, will look for improvements to 3500-4000ft Sunday
as clouds try to scatter out a bit...but MVFR could try to hang on
at APN. Winds light easterly to light and variable tonight; SE winds
pick up to 7-13kts gusting as high as 20-25kts Sunday after
daybreak.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to noon EDT Monday for
     LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
     LHZ346-347.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to noon EDT Monday for
     LMZ341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...FEF