087
FXUS63 KAPX 182336
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
736 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Air Quality improving, but still suboptimal, over the weekend.

-Showers and thunderstorms return Monday with stronger/severe
 potential, along with torrential rainfall.

-Cooler weather with mainly precipitation free conditions build
 beyond midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Forecast Synopsis:

Longwave troughing firmly in place over NE NOAM, with a robust
thermal ridge up the spine of the Rockies. Result is persistent NW
flow aloft across the upper Great Lakes. Shortwave vort max and
attendant sfc low pressure approaching Val-d-Or, Quebec,
continuing its south and east of the area. Attendant surface
cold frontal boundary has essentially passed through the region
this morning, leaving the area in northwest flow... which, while
has stabilized the atmosphere and has let cold advection
transpire, it also has forced another plume of Canadian wildfire
smoke into the region both at the surface and aloft, with lots
of 1 mile to 4 mile VSBYs at area reporting sites. As such, with
continued smoke issues plaguing diurnal heating, anticipating
most spots likely wind up in the 60s to upper 70s today...
coolest near the Soo and warmest near Saginaw Bay.

Looking ahead, the persistent NW flow regime will continue its
influence aloft. Surface high pressure should mitigate most rain
activity across the region tonight as it moves overhead, with winds
trending from northeasterly to southwest tonight into Sunday. Dry
weather to prevail through Sunday and into Monday. Robust shortwave
currently digging from central Canada will lead to the next rain
chances Monday into Tuesday. In the wake of that system, surface
high pressure builds and should bring a return of drier weather
Wednesday through the end of the forecast period, though guidance
wants to perhaps bring additional rain chances into the upcoming
weekend... still a bit early to sort that out for the time being.

Details:

Smoke Trends: Thicker plume of smoke has returned to the Northwoods
in the wake of this morning`s frontal passage. Current hi-res smoke
guidance wants to keep the smoke overhead into the afternoon, with a
little bit of a reprieve across NE lower with some weak NE flow
building in late tonight into Sunday... but will likely hover over
NW lower through the day Sunday. SW flow strengthens ahead of the
next sytem Monday, which will blow the smoke plume back over the
region, but should flush it out of the area by late in the day. Will
have to see how things go heading into Tuesday, but with winds
turning NW behind another cold frontal passage, my guess is there
will be more smoke related issues. Nonetheless, an Air Quality Alert
is in effect for all of northern lower and eastern upper through
Sunday night.

Rain Chances: Rain chances trending downward today as stable air
pours into the region. Perhaps an outside shot at an isolated shower
or storm near Saginaw Bay, but the bulk of today`s robust convective
activity looks to generally favor the I-69 corridor and points south
and east. Next rain chances arrive Monday and into Tuesday as the
ensuing central Canadian system races across the region, with sfc
low pressure passing just north of Lake Superior, and the attendant
NE to SW oriented cold frontal boundary sweeping through the region
Monday night. Ample moisture advection ahead of the system (humid
airmass with surface dewpoints spiking into the 70s) should bring
about plenty of heat and humidity to play with, and with good jet
dynamics (left exit region overhead Monday afternoon-night), support
is there for robust convection to materialize within the warm sector
overhead. As such, severe potential is on the table, possibly all
hazards, but SPC`s latest outlook specifies a damaging wind threat
as the primary concern. Most of the CWA lies under a Marginal Risk
(Level 1/5), but SPC`s outlook states further upgrades in category
may be necessitated... which, if timing and current progged
parameters hold, seems justifiable in future forecast cycles. In
addition, may need to watch for more hydro concerns, especially in
sensitive areas, as this airmass will be very moist (PWATs
ballooning toward 1.25 to 1.75 Monday evening), and thus easily
capable of producing torrential rainfall... and if any echo training
can occur, that could become problematic. With uncertainty looming
regarding this issue, will roll with generic messaging, but mention
potential for severe and torrential rainfall.

Temp Forecast: Highs generally in the 60s and 70s today, overnight
lows in the low 50s inland NLP and all of EUP, upper 50s to low 60s
on the coasts. Highs 75 to 85 Sunday and Monday, lows milder Monday
night... low to upper 60s. Cooler Tuesday through Thursday, highs 65
to 80... coolest Wednesday (adjustments may need to be made with
future smoke intrusions). Seasonable this upcoming weekend, with
highs in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 736 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

While Canadian wildfire smoke is still resulting in VSBY reductions
across some areas, conditions have noticeably improved this
afternoon into this evening -- including VFR VSBYs at all
northern Michigan TAF sites. With current low/mid cloud expected
to clear and aforementioned smoke being translucent to outgoing
radiation, efficient cooling overnight with calm winds may
allow for FG/BR development across parts of the area. Any
significant VSBY reductions are expected to improve shortly
after sunrise Sunday. Otherwise, smoke is still included in the
TAFs through the end of the issuance period, but expectation is
that conditions will be considerably better for much of Sunday
compared to the last several days.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...DJC