203
FXUS63 KAPX 281848
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
248 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog possible across eastern UP tonight.

- Continued warm daytime temperatures through Monday

- Brief rain chances Tuesday, then not as warm

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

High pressure builds into the region, moving west to east across
Canada tonight into Sunday. Big blocking high pressure aloft remains
as well, thus, any inclement weather from tropical remnants will
reside well to the south. Due to high pressure to the north and
northeast, northeasterly low level flow will continue.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

High pressure will be in control tonight into Sunday with northeast
sfc winds remaining through the period. Expect some breezes, but
nothing too significant. Could be a few near small craft breezes
from Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster this evening and Sunday afternoon.
Mostly clear skies tonight as any upper level cloud cover to
the southeast shifts southeast/diminishes. As has been the case,
isolated pockets of fog tonight across interior northern lower,
especially across the eastern UP as we cool into the 40s and
50s most locations (little better consensus in the eastern UP
for fog tonight based on latest guidance).

Another warm day on Sunday with temperatures well into the 70s. Will
be a little cooler near the Lake Huron shoreline given the northeast
wind direction, but overall still pleasant. Dry conditions persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

More of the same through Monday with high pressure/upper level
ridging leading to continued glorious early fall conditions--
abundant sunshine and warm daytime temperatures. The pattern then
begins to morph into a more seasonable one as a cold front moves
across the region Tuesday. A nearly zonal flow aloft beyond that
results in temperatures of only a few degrees above normal (instead
of the recent 10 or so above). A few showers are likely with the
front on Tuesday. The next chance for rain after that doesn`t look
like it`ll be until Thursday night or Friday when a an upper level
wave likely moves through the flow. Highs Monday in the mid 70s to
near 80. Highs in the 60s expected to be more common for the
remainder of the week, though a few lower 70s are likely east of I-
75. Widespread cooler temperatures at night, especially Tuesday
night when a few spots could even see patchy frost.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Breezy northeast winds through this afternoon, diminishing
tonight. Mainly VFR through the period with just some ISO BR/FG
later tonight, perhaps a little better confidence on impacts in
the eastern UP based on the latest data. Thus, have BR at KCIU
after midnight. Otherwise, dry with mostly SKC on Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JLD