563
FXUS63 KAPX 180651
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
251 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms will continue this morning, with more
chances this afternoon for NW lower.

- A brief break late this evening, then widespread moderate rain
will move in from the south late tonight and linger through Sunday

- Winds turn northwest Sunday and strengthen with frequent gusts
  of 25 to 35 mph. Gale force wind gusts over the waters.
  Stronger winds will linger through the evening, gradually
  weakening Sunday night into early Monday morning.

- Confidence in rain returning as early as Tuesday is growing -
  rain, cooler temperatures, and gusty winds will likely be seen
  for much of the middle part of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Satellite and radar currently depict a broken line of convection
over MO/IA and stretching into SW WI. These showers/storms are a
result of surface troughing that starts over WI and extends down
towards OK/TX. Showers and storms will continue to fill in along
that surface trough, towards northern Lk MI, as broad upper
troughing moves these features east early this morning. As the
features move east, convection helps to better define some FGEN in
the lower levels - filling in the surface trough with scattered
showers and isolated storms as it continues across northern MI this
morning. Clusters of light to moderate rain with embedded isolated
storms producing heavy rain and occasional lightning will continue
to track across northern lower and eastern upper through mid day
today. Drier air will move in behind the rain, allowing for some
afternoon sun over several spots today (best chances over NW lower).
SBCAPE just shy of 1000 J/kg and convective Ts in the high 60s will
introduce chances for afternoon convection to form over NW lower
today. Storms are not anticipated to become severe; the main hazards
with these will be lightning, gusty outflow winds, brief heavy rain
and small hail.

This evening, the large scale pseudo -PNA pattern moves east and the
trough in the middle deepens due to convection on the lee side and a
strengthening jet on the windward side. The trough will become
negatively tilted tonight and continue into Sunday, as a surface
cyclone over TX/OK deepens. As the whole system strengthens - a
strong jet accelerates the surface cyclone towards MI early Sunday
and brings deep moisture back to the region.

So breaking this down a little, drier air moves in this afternoon
and lessen rain chances late this evening and tonight after
convection settles down. Depending on how quickly the surface
cyclone can move north, rain chances could be introduced again as
early 10/11 PM ET tonight. The cyclone will be deepening and phasing
with upper level support, yielding widespread moderate rainfall with
potential bands of some heavier rain at times. This will last
through much of Sunday, weakening in the afternoon/evening as the
cyclone exits to the northeast. Northwest winds will strengthen as
the cyclone approaches and moves through NL, generating winds of 15
to 20 mph with frequent gusts up to 25 to 35 mph (max 40 - 45 mph
for coastal areas of NE lower and over the coastal waters of
northern Lk Huron). Winds will be slow to weaken Sunday night.

Uncertainties and Rain totals: Although these larger scale features
forcing our weather on Sunday haven`t formed yet, and the Gulf
moisture with Sunday`s rain isn`t fully realized in SE soundings
yet.. guidance has shown strong run to run consistency and agreement
on the cyclone`s track and intensity Sunday. The one subtlety that
is resulting in some QPF disagreement is what the dry air this
afternoon will look like as the cyclone approaches from the south.
RAP/NAM and some others have a more pronounced dry slot at 850 which
curbs some of the intial precip early Sunday morning. HRRR/RRFS and
others that have higher QPF do have the dry slot, however its
overcome by the moisture quicker. Nonetheless, 00Z trends of even
the HRRR have shown slightly less QPF that previous runs - keeping
that dry slot around this evening and into the night tonight.
However, there is still moderate to high confidence in forecasted
rain amounts below:

36 hour Rain totals (this morning through Sunday evening):

- NW lower: 1" - 2" (highest near I-75)

- NE lower: 1" - 2.5" Locally up to 3" (highest near Saginaw Bay)

- Eastern Upper: 0.5" - 1.5" (highest near Lk Huron)

Locally higher amounts are possible due to heavy rain under
convective cells today.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

A brief break in unsettled weaker is seen on Monday, however global
guidance is consistently showing another system moving in as early
as Tuesday. Rain chances and gusty winds return, however
temperatures will likely dip late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Precipitation will fall in the form of rain still, however highs
will reach into the low 50s for the middle part of the work week and
overnight lows will dip into the 30s. Winds will be gusty at times
as well. It is too early to pin down rain amounts, however it is
likely that most of northern lower and eastern upper will see rain
return with this next system.

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Prevailing VFR for much of tonight, but SHRA to affect all
sites thru sunrise, with the exception of APN as a cold front
approaches. This will result in several instances of temporary
reductions to MVFR in CIG and VSBY. Exception is CIU, which may
dip into IFR and linger there for much of the day Saturday. A
brief lull to VFR seems likely later Saturday before the next
system approaches from the south. Result will be the onset of
what may be a prolonged period of IFR at the very end of the
forecast period, perhaps even LIFR due to FG / BR and very low
CIGs.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from noon Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     LSZ321.
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...HAD