316
FXUS63 KAPX 161043
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
643 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/storm chances increase this morning into this afternoon with
  best coverage expected across the eastern U.P. and northeast
  lower. Severe storms are not anticipated.

- Dry start to next week with rain chances returning on Tuesday.

- Trending cooler after midweek with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing draped across south-central Canada and the Upper
Midwest will slide east today as a more subtle, convectively-
augmented shortwave over the mid-Mississippi Valley also works east
over the Ohio Valley. Combined forcing from these features will
support elongated low pressure along a relatively weak cold front
set to sweep across the region today. Surface high pressure will
temporarily build in behind this system on Monday before much more
impressive troughing rotates into the Great Lakes later Tuesday
through the middle of the week. High pressure looks to build into
the Great Lakes again at the end of this week.

Forecast Details:

Main focus of the forecast continues to be expected scattered
showers and storms across the area today. A few light showers may
persist tonight/early this morning, but best chances will come late
this morning into early this evening along/ahead of the
aforementioned front. Best storm coverage is expected across the
eastern U.P. from late morning through early afternoon with
convection spreading into northern lower as time progresses. Ample
buoyancy (~1,000 J/kg MLCAPE) will be in place ahead of the front to
support thunderstorms, albeit characterized by skinny-CAPE
profiles from the moisture-rich airmass present. This, combined
with limited deep-layer shear (~30 kts EBWD) will hinder the
potential for strong thunderstorms today. The main concern with
showers and storms will be heavy rainfall potential with
aforementioned high-quality moisture in place. As noted by the
previous forecaster, PWAT values approaching 2" will support
efficient rainfall with any convection, bringing the potential
for localized totals of 0.5-1"+ through this evening.

Rain chances will wind down this evening as high pressure builds in,
kicking off the week with dry weather and sunshine. Chances for
showers and storms will re-enter the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday
as previously mentioned troughing digs into the Great Lakes. Highs
in the upper 70s to mid 80s during the start of the week will
noticeably cool during the middle of the week with afternoon
temperatures staying in the low to mid 70s for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Scattered showers will continue across the eastern U.P. this
morning. Coverage of showers and development of thunderstorms is
anticipated later this morning and afternoon. MVFR CIGs have
spread across portions of the area, and continued lowering of
cloud bases is anticipated over the next several hours as low-
level moisture increases -- potentially dropping some areas to
IFR for a time this morning. Some improvement of CIGs is
anticipated late this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, south-
southwest winds this morning will increase and eventually turn
to northwest winds behind a cold front slated to slide across
northern Michigan today. Gusts to 20-25 kts are expected this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for LHZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Monday for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for LMZ323-341-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...DJC