407
FXUS63 KAPX 041054
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
654 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger today due to dry conditions and breezy winds.

- Showers and thunderstorms return tonight into the early part
  of weekend.

- Warm temperatures continue next week with mid to upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

High pressure remains he primary influence across northern
Michigan today, supporting another warm, dry, and breezy
afternoon. Relatively poor overnight RH recoveries combined with
temperatures climbing well into the 80s and frequent gusts of
20-25 mph will result in another day of elevated fire weather
concerns, with some locations potentially approaching critical
fire weather conditions this afternoon. For additional details
please see the latest Fire Weather Planning Forecast.

The pattern begins to change tonight as moisture and upstream
convective activity gradually work toward the Great Lakes. While
most of northern Lower should remain dry through today and into
tonight, there is a chance for thunderstorms to track across
portions of eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt late this
evening into the overnight hours. Severe weather is not
anticipated, though brief heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds
will be possible with any stronger storms. As we head into
early Friday into Friday night as a more substantial increase in
moisture arrives. PWATs climb 1.0"+ while dewpoints rise into
the 60s, supporting scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through the day and into Friday night. Heavy
rainfall and gusty winds appear to be the primary hazards,
though it cannot be ruled out that a few stronger storms could
be capable of producing small hail. SPC has the far southern
portion of northwest Lower in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for
Friday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms look to linger into
portions of Saturday as a shortwave crosses the region before
gradually departing east. Drier air and high pressure return
thereafter, bringing a stretch of mainly dry weather Sunday into
early next week. Temperatures will trend warmer once again,
with highs returning in well into the 80s and potentially
climbing even higher by mid next week, should ridging remain
firmly in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR. Increasing clouds tonight, and some showers are expected
break out at CIU late. But that should initially fall out of a
VFR cloud deck. Would not preclude brief restrictions at CIU
very late tonight, but a better chances waits until later Friday
morning. Elsewhere, a mid cloud deck and no precip is expected
thru 12Z Friday. Sw winds become somewhat breezy this afternoon/
evening, especially in nw lower MI (TVC).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...JZ