845
FXUS63 KAPX 031726
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
126 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Shower/storm chances continue at various times through Friday
night. Locally heavy rain and a stronger storm or two possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing progressing over the eastern
Great Lakes and southeast Canada will continue to slowly trek east
this afternoon through Friday. The associated ~1008 mb surface low
pressure centered over western Quebec will also weaken and follow
suit to the east through this time. Meanwhile, ridging will amplify
across the middle of the country late this week and hold through the
holiday weekend, building surface high pressure across Hudson
Bay/Ontario that will nose down into the Great Lakes by Saturday/
Sunday. Ridging may finally begin to fold overtop of the Great Lakes
region heading into the middle of next week as troughing works
across the west from the Pacific coast.

Forecast Details: Showers/storms continue to percolate across
southern reaches of the forecast area into mid-Michigan early
this afternoon. Not a ton of change to this through early
evening with the highest PoPs focused near and south of M-72.
While severe weather doesn`t appear to be a glaring threat,
suppose there`s enough support there for a low chance of a
stronger storm capable of producing gusty winds -- lining up
well with SPC`s latest D1 outlook. Primary concern continues to
be locally heavy rainfall. Areas that received 1-3.5"+ of rain
over the last several hours (far southwestern portions of the
CWA) will be most susceptible to potential localized flooding
concerns with any additional locally heavy downpours.

Expecting a break in shower/storm coverage mid-late evening, but
latest trends showing increased support for additional upstream
showers/storms to make inroads across parts of northern Michigan
tonight into Friday morning. While lots of uncertainty riddles this
time frame (partially hinging on how this afternoon/evening shake
out across the broader region), think that if precip is able to
survive into northern Michigan later tonight that`ll it`ll be
primary a locally heavy rain threat rather than a severe weather
threat. Probabilities for 1"+ of rain have increased over the last
several forecast cycles with even some low probabilities for 2"+
noted (these higher end chances maximized south of APX`s CWA).

While some shower/storm chances will linger Friday into Friday
evening, a general drying trend is anticipated heading into the
holiday weekend. Mostly sunny skies and largely precip-free
conditions anticipated Saturday - Monday with daily high
temperatures near to several degrees above early September normals.
Chances for a return to more active conditions look to hold off
until the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Afternoon showers/storms focused at MBL and grazing TVC at times.
The remainder of the forecast area largely precipication-free under
VFR conditions through this evening. Another wave of showers and
embedded thunderstorms possible later tonight into early Friday
morning followed by expected gradual improvement.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...PBB