162
FXUS63 KAPX 310712
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
312 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain with embedded showers and storms this morning
  through early afternoon. Main threats are heavy rain and
  thunder. Medium to high chances for swaths of an additional
  0.5 to 1" of rain, low confidence in exact location of swaths

- Marginal chances for an isolated stronger thunderstorm
  producing damaging wind gusts tonight over northern lower MI

- Isolated shower and storm chances during the day Tuesday south
  of M-55, with rain chances returning Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Currently, a narrow band of light rain is exiting the sunrise side
and slowly continuing eastward over Lk Huron. Scattered showers over
central Lk MI and the L.P. are blossoming, but remain very weak. A
LLJ over IA/WI is pointed towards northern WI this morning, and will
continue to produce scattered showers and a couple storms through
sunrise with some of these drifting into NW lower. Near the surface,
observations show the warm frontal boundary stalled near M-55 as
east winds over northern lower reinforce 60F temps off of northern
Lk Hurons cooler surface.

Zooming out, an upper closed low continues to trek across the
international border by ND. As this whole system continues eastward
this morning, it will re-orient the LLJ with the resulting direction
pointed towards northern MI after sunrise. Although the LLJ will be
trending weaker as it reaches farther north, it will aid in precip
generation. Very deep moisture will continue to reside over the
state today, with PWATs approaching 2 inches.

Confidence is higher for widespread rain/showers today as a better
surge of the warm sector, in the right direction, will provide the
isentropic upglide needed for precip generation. The larger system
getting closer helps direct the jet in the right direction, whereas
yesterday it was more west/east orientated and laying across the
southern portion of the state. Model soundings depict marginal
elevated instabilty, which would result in embedded showers with
some thunder. The environment is just too saturated for severe
threats this morning, however heavier rain could be seen under
these storms. A deep WCL will be present, yielding the potential
for very efficient rain processes. Steering flow continues to
be from west to east. Nailing down where the resulting swaths of
greater rainfall will be is the challenge. The warm front will
lift today, reaching at least M-32 by this afternoon. This is
driven by the LLJ moving over northern MI later this morning,
surging the warm sector northward. Due to the movement of these
features, rainfall should be spread over much of northern lower
today instead of focused over smaller/narrower areas. An
additional quarter to half inch of rain over much of northern
lower is expected to fall today, with swaths of 0.5 to 1" under
the storms producing heavy rain.

As the warm front surges northward, temperatures will warm to above
normal today under south winds. South winds will become breezy near
the Lk MI coast south of Sleeping Bear Dunes late this morning.

Late this evening, the upper closed low will continue east, dragging
a dry slot over northern MN and Lk Superior. Ahead of this, an
increase in elevated instability aligns over northern WI and Lk MI.
Isolated stronger storms will be possible in this environment.
Tonight, this elevated instability will migrate over northern lower.
Most of the favorable environmental conditions for stronger storms
will reside in the mid levels.. shear is marginal with better 0-6km
present, and mid level lapse rates are 7 C/km vs 5 C/km in the lower
levels. Convection initiated upstream should be able to continue
east into northern MI as the more favorable environment moves with
it. Damaging winds, heavy rain, and lightning are the main hazards
expected with stronger storms.

Tuesday, the dry slot reaches a good portion of northern MI. Shower
and storm chances continue down state, and could reach up near
Gladwin county.

Wednesday, a refocusing of the upper jet over the central rockies
will induce another lee cyclone over the plains. The subtropical jet
continues to pump moisture into the desert southwest and over the
central Rockies. More over spreading of moisture is likely mid week
for the Great Lakes region, quickly returning clouds and rain
chances. Temperatures remain warmer than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Still looking at widespread MVFR to IFR producing cigs and
light mist/fog to impact KCIU, KPLN, and KAPN into this morning.
Cigs should continue to remain VFR at the other locations.
Light showers early this morning, with some potential for more
robust showers with embedded storms developing near sunrise,
with these showers spreading gradually east across the area this
morning. Any stronger storms will be capable of producing brief
heavy rain and some gusty winds. Shower coverage should
decrease later in the morning and especially this afternoon.
Light winds this morning, with winds becoming a bit gusty out
of the southwest at KTVC and KMBL later this morning into the
afternoon. Light winds will continue elsewhere.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

We remain in similar antecedent conditions as previous
discussions have noted, around 50% soil moisture over NE lower
with pocket of FFGs that could result in more run off under
persistent moderate to heavy rains. The moving target is the
rainfall forecasts. Weak and inconsistent forcing has resulted
in widespread 0.2" to 0.6" of rainfall over the last 48 hours
over northern lower MI with isolated pockets of 0.5" to 1" and a
swath of 1" that tracked over parts of Roscommon, Gladwin,
Ogemaw, and Arenac counties.

As precipitation forms over central Lk MI and tracks east this
morning, swaths of rainfall 0.5 to 1" should cover parts of NW
lower from M-55 up to M-32. Precipitation could become lighter
as it tracks east, resulting in less over NE lower. This QPF
foot print is a more likely outcome at this time, however low
chances still exist for heavier rainfall over the more sensitive
parts of NE lower this morning. None of the HEFS probabilities
show chances for any river gauges reaching action stage. If
heavier rain does align with the areas of lower FFG, flooding in
low lying areas and quick rises in streams and creeks is
expected. Training of heavier precipitation isn`t out of the
question either, and would lead to similar flooding impacts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...MSB
HYDROLOGY...ELD