492
FXUS63 KAPX 271101
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
601 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High impact lake effect snow event continues today and tonight
resulting in hazardous travel on Thanksgiving Day

- Windy conditions with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph will last through
this evening

- The event slowly ends later Friday as winds weaken and lake effect
snow gradually lessens in intensity and reach

- Widespread chances for snow return with the next system arriving
late Saturday. Snow will last through Sunday

- A brief break in precipitation early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Current surface observations places the now occluded surface low
around 50 miles to the NE of the SOO. Windy west-northwest to
northwest conidtions currently exist over northern MI as a
boundary associated with the surface low has exited the state
to the east. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will continue over most of
the area through sunrise this morning. Radar and satellite
depict widespread lake enhanced snow covering most of the state.
Measured SLRs at the office yield around 12:1 for the onset of
the snow yesterday night. Under some of the heavier snow bands
that traversed NW lower, intial snow estimates of 1 to 3 inches
fell through midnight Thursday. Heavy snow under these bands
will continue into the day today as the lake effect engine kicks
into full gear.

Forecast:
A deep upper level closed low over the great lake region will
continue to lift NE today. In its wake, a stronger upper level jet
(130kts+) will race down the northern and central plains, meeting
with wrap around easterly flow associated with the exiting closed
low. The momentum from the upper jet will orient the wrap around
flow to north/northeast, and help reinforce an environment favorable
of keeping the LES engine going today and tonight for northern lower
and eastern upper Michigan. This environment includes favorable
background moisture and slightly cooler low level air (850mb temps
around -10 to -12C). A ~10 mb surface pressure gradient will
continue over the state today, with stronger low level winds (30 -
40kts) as the exiting system`s forcing features linger through the
day today. SLRs will slightly increase as temps aloft cool a little
and we enter into a more lake effect regime vs a lake enhanced one,
with expected values around 14:1 to 15:1.

With plenty of moisture lingering, some forcing remaining, and
stronger northwest winds locking in and continuing; heavy, banded
lake effect snow will continue today and tonight. Short range
guidance has verified generally well with the track and timing of
the surface low, which places more confidence in a stronger wind
field lasting most of today. This continues the previous
forecast thoughts for a few more well defined bands establishing
and reaching heavy snow as far inland as parts of Montmorency,
Oscoda, and Ogemaw counties. The one caveat is that the bands
will likely wiggle around in the afternoon and evening hours,
once the pressure fields (and as a result, wind fields) begin to
gradually relax a little. This could spread the heavier snow
over a larger area, and result in slightly lower overall
amounts. However, this is irrelevant to the impacts that will
still be seen over much of northern MI today. Heavy snow
training over locations and strong winds will result in quick
accumulations of snow on roads and very low visibilities at
times, leading to periods of very hazardous travel on
Thanksgiving day today for most of northern lower and eastern
upper. The highest additional snow amounts land in parts of
Antrim, Kalkaska, and Crawford counties. Please see the latest
winter storm warnings and advisories for snow amounts.

Friday, northwest winds will weaken through the day. Snow showers
will generally begin to weaken in intensity, with only an isolated
band or two producing moderate to heavy snow. Snowfall will
gradually become more diffuse, and migrate towards the tip of
the mitt as intensities weaken. An additional couple tenths to
3" of snow is forecasted for parts of northern MI Friday 7 AM
through 7 PM. Friday night, winds will become calm and high
pressure builds in. Temperatures will fall into the teens
overnight for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Saturday, large scale troughing over the CONUS will put quasi-zonal
upper level flow over the central Rockies. This will generate a lee
side surface cyclone near the OK panhandle. Rich gulf moisture will
be advected northward into the central plains. This moisture
(focused in the lower levels), will meet with Pacific moisture over
the northern plains (focused more in the mid levels). The surface
cyclone deepens over the central plains during the day Saturday
(~1010 mb low). Colder air on the northern side of the cyclone will
create an ideal environment for snow (FGEN band of snow will track
over the central plains to the western great lakes region late
Saturday). Light to moderate snow will fall over northern lower late
Saturday into Sunday as the surface low tracks towards Saginaw Bay.
A quick hitting couple inches of snow with a normal SLR (10:1 to
13:1) will fall near the M-55 corridor and parts of NE lower. The
system exits late this weekend, with growing chances for more quiet
weather early next week.

At this time, guidance is still showing some uncertainty in the
track of the surface low. The most likely scenario would keep most
of the heaviest snow over the southern half of the state, with a
couple inches potentially reaching M-55, Saginaw Bay, and parts of
NE lower. However, ensemble guidances gives a wide range of snowfall
totals for Sunday over parts of NE lower (from a couple inches up to
several). If the low tracks farther north, more widespread heavy
snow could be seen over parts of NW lower, and most of NE lower. We
will have our eyes on this next system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

MVFR CIGs will dominate for most through the day today and into
tonight, with occasional IFR CIGs possible, esp KCIU early.
VSBYs will depend on snow intensity and if lake effect bands can
impact terminals. Best potential for significant vis reductions
(<1SM) will be at KCIU and KPLN. That being said, any lighter
snow will reduce VSBYs at all locations between 1-3SM. Any more
robust snow shower or lake effect band will have to potential to
drop VSBYs at KAPN, KCIU, KTVC, Winds northwest at 15G30KTs on
average through Thanksgiving day.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ016>018-
     024-088.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ020-
     025-031.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ021>023-
     027>029-033>035-086-087-095-096-099.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ026-
     032.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ345>349.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JLD