500
FXUS63 KAPX 260939
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
539 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog diminishing through this morning.

- More cool nights with fog into next week; perhaps some frost
  possible again tonight.

- Very quiet into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Rex block and associated surface high pressure retrograding
overhead, and to remain in place through the weekend into next week.
As such, dry and ever so progressively warmer daytime highs into the
70s, and modest diurnal swings will lead to cooler nighttime lows
in the 40s and lower 50s for most.

Meanwhile, vintage El Nino coded longwave troughing currently
setting up shop across the Pacific Coast will lead to a potent
return flow of tropical Pacific moisture within an active
subtropical jet into the Four Corners region, with tropically
influenced shortwaves ejecting into the southern Plains. Much of
this moisture to be suppressed to our south by a combination of both
the rex blocking overhead and a rather unimpressive northern stream
wave pattern through midweek... until a more potent northern stream
wave zips into the upper Midwest and brings just enough of a draw of
the deeper moisture northward into the region to perhaps introduce
some scattered rain chances around midweek.

Details:

Will continue to contend with some fog across the region through the
morning... and perhaps some localized frost potential in the colder
interior locales that manage to bottom out near / below 35 degrees.
Much of this to scour out through early morning, with a warm and
sunny afternoon resulting as highs top out generally 68 to 75
degrees amid light NE flow. Another cool night tonight with temps
perhaps dipping into the upper 30s in colder interior locales, but
most other places probably wind up anywhere from the low-mid 40s,
perhaps low 50s along the immediate lakeshores. Current thinking is
that frost potential will be muted tonight, perhaps occurring on a
localized scale across the interior cold spots. Warmer days ahead
Monday and Tuesday with highs perhaps making a run into the upper
70s in places. Should be noted average highs this time of year are
generally 61 to 68 degrees.

Aforementioned Pacific moisture plume to really struggle reaching
into the region until the middle or end of next week, and
considering the fickle nature of systems, I remain more pessimistic
than optimistic in regard to us realizing an appreciable amount of
rainfall from this feature. Largely split flow should limit the
northern jet stream`s influence in drawing this moisture northward
into our neck of the woods, but a continued active subtropical jet
should produce wave after wave of convection and tropical downpours
across the Four Corners into the southern Plains, leaking into the
central Plains by early next week (Arizona, New Mexico, Texas,
Oklahoma, Colorado, and Kansas certainly look to see the brunt of
these rains, amounting well in excess of 7" in places, and I would
be unsurprised to see amounts winding up well higher than that
across TX and OK). More potent northern stream feature to pass into
the upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday, which should finally aid
enough in drawing that deeper moisture northward. Anticipation is
that continued southern / central Plains activity will bottle the
best moisture pooling across that region, while just some scraps of
moisture get ingested by the aforementioned northern stream wave.

Timing of this feature`s passage through the Great Lakes and
northern Michigan will dictate whether or not this is a meaningful,
convectively charged and appreciable amount of rain during the day /
evening, or a whimpering drizzly disappointment of a rain that
passes through at night and accomplishes nothing much more than
annoying everybody with uncomfortable amounts of humidity
(clearly I`m not emotionally biased). That all being said,
guidance seems to highlight the Wednesday - Wednesday night
timeframe to favor best rain chances. Certainly a lot of
different factors to consider with this pattern`s evolution, so
won`t be overly aggressive in rainfall messaging aside from
mentioning "shower chances" at this juncture... because if this
feature loses its convective elements with a nighttime passage,
any stratiform rain will have a boatload of drier air to
overcome, and top-down saturation processes will be a tall task
without a deeper moisture surge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Any fog/mist will quickly burn off after sunrise, leaving behind VFR
conditions under mostly sunny/clear skies. Dont think fog/mist will
be quite a widespread later tonight, but still expecting some
impacts...especially at KMBL. Light winds, with local lake breeze
development this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...MSB