692
FXUS63 KAPX 212056
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
456 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers continue at times today and this weekend, along with
chances for thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected.

- Noticeably cooler temperatures move in this weekend.

- Dry weather returns late Sunday/Monday before our next rain
chances move in during the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing draped across the northeast quadrant of the
country will amplify with time this weekend as a potent jet max digs
across the northern Great Plains, eventually rounding the base of
the trough over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic late Saturday into
Sunday. Forcing aloft provided by this wave will continue to support
an elongated cyclone stretching from Hudson Bay down into the Great
Lakes that is set to trek across the region this evening through
Saturday night. Meanwhile, amplified ridging will fold over the
heart of the continent this weekend, placing the Great Lakes under
the ridge/trough inflection point and thus best subsidence aloft by
the start of next week. This will build surface high pressure into
the region on the backside of the departing system Monday and
Tuesday. Additional troughing looks to progress overhead through the
middle of next week.

Forecast Details:

Showers will continue across northern Michigan at times through at
least the first half of the weekend. Ongoing showers will spread
east with time this afternoon and likely increase in coverage over
the next few hours into this evening. The most likely area for
heavier showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be across
southeast portions of the CWA closer to Saginaw Bay where mostly
sunny skies have allowed for better diurnal heating. A relative lull
in chances is anticipated for a brief time early tonight before
another round of showers looks to move in late tonight along/ahead
of a cold front swinging across the Great Lakes.

A similar story is expected Saturday as scattered to numerous
showers are anticipated again. Best rain chances will come along and
east of I-75, especially from late morning into the afternoon as a
secondary cold front comes through. Unlike today, ~1,000 J/kg MLCAPE
will be in place across northeast lower to support thunderstorm
chances with daytime activity tomorrow. However, relatively weak
deep-layer shear will keep severe thunderstorm chances very low. The
primary threats tomorrow will be lightning and brief heavy
downpours. Light showers may linger into Saturday evening with the
main chances for rain expected to end before Sunday. A few showers
cannot be ruled out on Sunday, but chances currently appear to be
less than 20%.

Perhaps most notably Sunday will be gusty northwest winds ushering
in cool temperatures, giving the area a taste of fall as we head
into the end of August. Sustained winds around 10-15 mph will gust
to 20-30 mph at times into Sunday evening as daytime temperatures
stay in the 60s for most areas. Rain chances look to hold off for
the start of next week with high pressure in place, eventually
returning to the forecast during the middle of the week as
aforementioned troughing slides overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 453 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions with a few showers this evening. Lower cigs to
MVFR (IFR?) expected to build into the area later tonight into
Saturday morning. Cigs improve during the day Saturday, with
perhaps some afternoon showers and storms. Confidence remains
low on overall coverage of showers/storms through the entirety
of the period. Light winds tonight become a bit gusty out of the
northwest as we head into Saturday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ346>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MSB