138
FXUS63 KAPX 291659
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1259 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Late season warmth continues today with highs in the 70s.

-Rainfall moves across Northern Michigan this Wednesday and
Thursday.

-High pressure returns this weekend, supporting clear skies and
quiet weather through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Pattern Synopsis: 500mb Cyclonic low pressure over the eastern
seaboard with subsequent shortwave ridging upstream over the Great
Lakes Region begins to break down today and progress eastward. At
the same time upstream troughing with attached surface low pressure
continues to develop in the central U.S and expand moisture through
the Midwest by early Wednesday morning. Light rainfall will persist
across the CWA this Wednesday and Thursday as a slow-moving frontal
boundary works across the region.

Cooler air will settle into the Northwoods this weekend as surface
high pressure builds across Northern Ontario and pushes cool, dry
northerly air into Northern Michigan. Temperatures are expected to
remain near climatological normal for early October with highs in
the 60s and overnight lows around 40. Quiet conditions are expected
to persist through the remainder of the forecast period as midlevel
zonal flow keeps any energy to our north.

Forecast Details:

Today and tonight: Subsidence aloft will continue dry and quiet
conditions today as summer-like temperatures build into the 70s
across the CWA. No active weather to report other than the morning
dense fog expected to quickly burn off/mix out as the surface
inversion breaks down. The majority of the day is expected to be
mostly sunny to partly cloudy with some low-level cumulus clouds
through midday before burning off and being replaced by mid/high-
level stratus this evening from the incoming frontal wave.

Wednesday and Thursday: Couple rounds of light precipitation are
expected to return after a prolonged dry spell to Northern Michigan.
Even with poor midlevel dynamics and a boundary dissipating with
time, southerly moisture advection will produce appreciable rainfall
amounts this Wednesday and Thursday. Highest amounts favor
southwestern parts of the CWA, with moderate chances of an inch or
more, but the majority of Northern Lower will likely observe around
a half inch of QPF over the course of 36-48 hours. Again, rainfall
intensity is expected to be low, but after a couple of weeks with no
observed precipitation, this rainfall will be beneficial for a dry
fall season.

Friday through Monday Outlook: Overall quiet and dry weather is
expected to persist through the remainder of the forecast period as
high pressure builds across Northwestern Ontario. Little to no
chances are expected this weekend into early next week as zonal
500mb flow punts any atmospheric disturbances north of the CWA. Low-
end PoPs will remain in the forecast for this Sunday as long-range
guidance depicts showers expanding south and clipping Eastern Upper
and the Tip of the Mitt, but confidence remains low regarding any
observable rainfall as mid and low levels appear very dry. Otherwise
temperatures cool slightly compared to today and return to
seasonable norms for October with highs in the 60s and overnight
lows around 40.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Some MVFR cloud bases possible thru afternoon, but otherwise VFR.
Not impossible fog develops again this evening/tonight ahead of
rain, and if so, IFR-LIFR conditions possible with fog...but not
confident in this attm. Otherwise, slow downtrend expected from
VFR/MVFR to IFR or lower by 10-14z; rain from VFR cigs could move
in as early as 6-8z. Looks like a 30-ish knot jet around 2kft AGL
will develop tonight across the area, with less certainty of this at
APN; some of this could mix down in the morning. Not impossible
there could be some embedded TS after 12z, but not confident in this
idea attm. Lake breezes this afternoon and non-zero chance for land
(offshore) breeze this evening at coastal sites, but expect winds to
become more S/SW and increase toward 10-15kts by morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...FEF