512
FXUS63 KAPX 161857
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
257 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke/haze through Friday

- Shower/storm chances return Friday-Saturday. Marginal risk for
  excessive rain and severe storms in part of the area Friday
  night.

- Cooler next week with occasional rain chances

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A partial band of mid and high clouds continues to sit over
northern MI, extending back to the western and central UP. Some
virga is noted on MQTs radar over nw lower MI, but much too
high up to be of any concern with drier air below. Those clouds
are also of little consequence, given the smoke pall that
covers most of MI. Some thinning of the smoke is trying to poke
into eastern upper and far ne lower MI from the ne; Drummond
Isl has seen vsbys improve all the way to 2SM. Yay, I guess.

Surface low pressure is sitting over the western Dakotas this
afternoon. As a digging shortwave trof moves se-ward from
central Canada, the surface low kicks east and eventually
deepens. The surface low passes just north of MI late Friday
night into Sat morning. Warm advection gradually develops here
Friday, increasing Fri night up until the cold front goes thru
Sat morning.

HRRR smoke guidance suggests that somewhat cleaner air will
make further inroads tonight/early Fri morning into parts of
eastern upper/ne lower MI. The rest of us will see little
progress until late Fri afternoon into Fri evening, when
increasing sw flow will start to push our smoke off to the ne.
Nw lower MI (TVC/MBL/CAD) will be the 1st to improve later on
Friday.

Increasing clouds and some shower chances will precede the
improving smoke conditions. Though tonight looks dry, a few
showers could poke into far western areas (west of TVC-CAD, and
far western Mackinac Co) soon after 12z/8am. A small chance for
showers will expand east from there across northern lower MI,
but with the highest pops seen in eastern upper MI in the
afternoon. Our instability is unimpressive during the day,
MuCape values up to 500j/kg, though better instability is
lurking just to our west by early evening. Maybe a few rumbles
of thunder during the day, but not expecting anything
particularly strong.

Shower/storm chances ramp up Fri night, in strengthening warm
advection ahead of the surface cold front. This starts in
eastern upper MI late evening, and gradually works into
northern lower MI overnight. Elevated MuCape values will rise
closer to 1k j/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear values will be decent
enough, in excess of 40kt central and north. We`re obviously
fighting the wrong side of the diurnal heating cycle. Our best
chance for stronger storms would involve something developing
and organizing upstream, then taking a run at us (while probably
weakening). A marginal svr risk from SPC remains in place in
central and northern areas. Highest QPF for this event has
shifted north, across upper MI, which can stand some heavy rain
more than far northern lower MI can. Still, heavy rain threat
will be monitored.

Shower/storms remain likely Sat morning in northern lower MI. By
afternoon, just a chance lingers for the ne lower MI coast, as
cooler/drier air returns on nw/nnw breezes. The concern is that
this may return smoke to the region.

The next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday
night, as a surface cyclone evolves over southern Hudson Bay,
sending multiple shortwaves in our direction. This will support
cooler wx here, especially by the mid part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

More of the same (MVFR to IFR, to even LIFR at times) with
smoke impacting area terminals through the issuance period.
Continue to see little evidence of improvement, with
fluctuations in conditions expected as more dense smoke moves in
and out of terminal areas. As a result, uncertainty remains
high through the period and continues to be something we will
have to monitor closely via satellite imagery and observations.
However, as winds take on a more southerly component through the
day Friday with shower chances moving in later, thinking that
this should help to improve conditions.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>349.
     Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...NSC