496
FXUS63 KAPX 022332
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
632 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect/enhanced snow continues into Saturday

- Widespread light snow accumulations possible Sunday night into
Monday

- Milder and active next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging across the western US...and broad troughing still holds on
across the eastern US/continent...with NW flow across the middle of
the US, including the Upper Great Lakes. Punch of PV crossing TX
today along the southern edge of a baroclinic zone that stretches
from Alberta to the central Plains to the Carolinas. Unseasonably
cold air mass in place keeping the lake machine running today on
WNW/NW flow. Strand of PV stretching from western Ontario through
northern Lower MI this morning keeping LES a bit tamer across
northern Lower; various niblets in the flow with some slightly more
moist air north of this slipping across the EUP and persisting
better snow bands up toward the Soo. Cold air mass also allowing the
DGZ to be quite close to the ground...and not surprised to see SLRs
this morning come in at 20-30 to 1...perhaps even a little more in a
few spots.

Expect heights to rise through the afternoon as ridging starts to
build in from the west. This will be in advance of another shortwave
trough zipping through central Canada...which should approach the
region late tonight and especially Saturday. A little gun-shy on the
idea of drainage flow again tonight, given that it did not take
place last night as expected...though guidance signals a bit better
chance for tonight compared to last night...particularly with the
idea of ridging building in from the west vs subtle troughing
settling in from the north, suggesting a weaker pressure gradient
overall, which drainage flow could have a shot at winning against.
If drainage flow does not evolve...EUP (esp the Soo and perhaps to
Brimley/Kinross) should stay a touch warmer overall with lingering
snow showers skirting by to our north again...but if drainage flow
does evolve, will be a much colder start to the morning (sub-zero
temps possible) and the lingering snow bands could be shifted
westward into central Chippewa county a bit more. Not impossible we
could end up with some seeder-feeder action toward daybreak/12z as
next bout of moisture slips in...but pesky dry layer could slow this
idea.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Days 2-7 (Saturday through Friday)...

Saturday...aforementioned clipper zips in through the day. Expect
some warm advection ahead of this, as well as winds shifting a
little more westerly...becoming a little more NW again as it exits
Saturday evening, taking synoptic moisture with it. Think the
general idea for Saturday will actually be similar to
Thursday...with lingering lake effect becoming boosted a bit by the
addition of that synoptic moisture/forcing...and otherwise, a
widespread light snow with periods of reduced visibilities/poor road
conditions. HOWEVER...warm advection will again bring a deeper
isothermal layer into the region (perhaps a couple hundred millibars
deep)...and if this sets up in the DGZ with a bit better forcing
aloft, more fluff-n-stuff (and higher snowfall totals) would almost
certainly occur. For now, though, not expecting much more than a
couple inches or so, as this feature should be relatively
progressive overall.

Sunday-Monday...Expect high pressure and upper ridging to build in
again Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of the clipper...but
the break won`t be for long. Niblet of PV from the Pacific looks to
shove its way through the ridge across the central/northern US amid
warm advection regime. This should try to enhance surface pressure
falls across the Plains into the Midwest, though unclear attm if/how
well an organized surface low will be able to eject eastward with
additional ridging building in behind it going into Monday.
Nevertheless...warm advection regime should allow better moisture to
overspread the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night, bringing the
potential for widespread accumulating snow back to the region...with
some probabilistic guidance hinting at a 25-35 percent chance of 4
inches of snow in 24hrs over us Sunday night into Monday at this
time. Given that this could be a wetter/denser snow...think it will
have a bit more of an impact than the last couple days` fluff.

Tuesday-Friday...For now...looks like overall flow turns zonal
across the US starting Monday and lasting through midweek. Some bits
of energy trek through the flow, though...with signals attm pointing
toward a disturbance Tuesday into Wednesday that could bring some
rain and/or mixed precipitation to the region as it passes through.
Beyond this...signals point toward potential for troughing to dig
through the western half of the continent for late week with some
strong surface pressure falls somewhere across the middle of the
continent...though guidance is still struggling to determine how
this will evolve and where the strongest surface responses will be.
Still...given the zonal flow and earlier systems in the week...think
we could be in the fray with this late week system (if it comes to
fruition). P-type issues certainly possible depending on how far
north the mild air is able to get...and think we will need to keep
an eye on this going forward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR to MVFR into Saturday morning in cold air and lake effect
clouds/flurries. Another system will increase snow on Saturday
afternoon, and IFR conditions develop at all TAF sites. A w to
nw breeze continues.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ