402
FXUS63 KAPX 031720
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
120 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High fire danger continues through Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return late week into early part of
  weekend.

- Warm temperatures continue next week with mid to upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Temperatures continue to rise on Thursday (mid to upper 80s),
as high pressure to the south remains an influencing factor.
Deep afternoon mixing will result in breezy and dry conditions
and thus, high fire danger once again. Boundary layer winds are
~15-20 KTs, and so wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are likely,
slightly higher west of 75. Given the deep mixing, briefly
stronger gusts will be possible. Otherwise, high and dry on
Thursday as energy out of the Plains coagulates and moves
eastward.

Our next chance for meaningful precipitation will be ~Friday and
Friday night as a mess of upper energy and sfc boundaries work into
northern Michigan. As this activity moves eastward on Friday, a
notable uptick in moisture is anticipated, with PWs ~1.5"+ and
dewpoints approaching the lower 60s. Consequently, showers and
thunderstorms will develop across northern MI. Definitely some
questions regarding morning showers on Friday and how that will
impact instability and any severe/heavy rain threat. Current
guidance hints at the best moderate rain potential near Manistee and
vicinity as thunderstorms develop west of Lake Michigan and attempt
to move east as an MCS, to some degree. This is also where the best
pool of instability will likely reside. Something to fine tune in
the coming shifts as these subtle pieces of energy, some
convectively agitated, all interact. Thought process at this time is
for a band of showers to move in early to midday Friday, with the
best potential for thunderstorms later Friday and Friday night,
especially with any activity that moves in off of Lake Michigan.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday as
another short wave swings through and phases with some of the
ongoing loose energies east of northern MI.

Upper high builds over the Great Lakes Region Sunday through next
week. Guidance showing >590 decameter high pressure influencing
northern MI as a matter of fact. Consequently, temperatures will
rise into the mid 80s to  at least during the early to middle
portions of next week. In fact, NBM probs for high temps 90F or more
steadily increase through next week. That being said, if high
pressure drifts a little to the east, then moisture and a renewed
chance for showers and storms will develop. Conversely, if high
pressure remains locked in overhead, warm/hot and dry weather will
remain. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Conditions remain generally similar to last few days as high
pressure slowly slips to the southeast. SW winds today generally 5-
10kts, could gust 15-18kts through afternoon (lake breezes likely at
MBL, TVC, and APN), then staying 5-8kts overnight prevailing from
SW...but could trend more S at TVC/MBL with land breeze overnight.
LLWS possible with 25-30kt jet around 1500-2000ft after 6z,
strongest at CIU/PLN. Winds turn back to SW and pick up to 8-13kts,
gusting 15-25kts after daybreak. Cigs/visbys to remain VFR thru
period with cloud bases largely above 20kft...though some 6kft bases
could develop by 18z Thurs.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...FEF