740
FXUS63 KAPX 252218
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
618 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower chances across the eastern U.P. this afternoon
  gradually sag into northern lower this evening/tonight.

- Brief cool down Monday and Tuesday, then mild temperatures
  return with rain chances returning mid-late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure is in the
process of crossing well to our north across Hudson Bay. Attendant
weak cold front is draped from northern Quebec southwestward into
the central Plains -- slowly making inroads into the eastern U.P.
This boundary will work its way into northern lower by early evening
and clear the area the forecast area to the southeast tonight.
Couple of cooler days on tap Monday-Tuesday as a result, but
northern MI should sit on the periphery of ~1035mb high pressure
passing by to our north with little in the way of active weather to
start the work week. Focus then turns to the Wednesday night -
Thursday time frame as another wave treks out of the Pac NW into
north-central Canada, again dragging a cold front across northern
MI. This period looks to feature higher rain shower chances locally.
Additional more active weather may return for parts of the Halloween
weekend.

Forecast Details: Cold front alluded to above is making headway into
eastern upper early this afternoon, expected to make slow southeast
progress into northern lower later this afternoon/early evening,
eventually clearing the forecast area late tonight. While impacts
should be nil, isolated to scattered light rain shower chances will
accompany this boundary, primarily across the eastern U.P. this
afternoon before gradually sagging south this evening through
tonight. A few showers may linger across far southeast areas into
early Monday morning. All in all, not a lot of rain, with the vast
majority of the area hard-pressed to get more than a few hundredths,
if any at all.

Post-frontal cooler temperatures progged for Monday and Tuesday with
highs in the upper 40s far north and through the 50s over northern
lower -- certainly closer to what would be considered normal for
late October.

Temperatures rebound back to well-above normal levels Wednesday as
northern MI sits firmly under WAA in advance of a wave trekking from
the northern Plains to near Hudson Bay. Highs Wednesday progged in
the 60s to near 70 area-wide. This warmth in advance of that system
dragging another cold front across the area by late Wednesday night
into Thursday. Shower chances return through this time and currently
expected to be more numerous/widespread than today-tonight`s
showers.

Looking toward Halloween weekend, above normal temperatures
anticipated for Friday through Sunday, with latest trends supporting
low-mid 60s over northern lower and a touch cooler north of the
bridge for Halloween day. Rain chances may return next weekend as
well, but lots of spatial/temporal uncertainty at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Trending VFR across the board. MVFR at CIU to trend VFR with a
cessation of -SHRA. Elsewhere, high based SHRA are possible at
all sites except MBL through tonight. Owing to the high-based
nature of SHRA, anticipation is that CIG and VSBY categories
will be unaffected. Front sweeps through late tonight, with
decreasing clouds through the day Monday. Winds flip north, but
should hold 8 to 15kts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...HAD