093
FXUS63 KAPX 020729
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
329 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger today due to dry conditions and breezy
  afternoon winds

- Dry conditions will continue today through Thursday, with
temperatures becoming hot starting Wednesday

- Next rain and storm chances possibly returning Thursday for
  the eastern U.P. and Friday for northern lower

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Current satellite depicts the upper ridge seeping over northern MI
this morning. At the same time, a cut off low over southern CAN by
MT continues to generate stormy activity over eastern MT and western
ND. A deeper plume of moisture was streaming into the central plains
ahead of this upper level feature the last couple days, and has
resulted in around 1 to 1.5" PWATs over the central and northern
plains. This amplified upper ridging over northern MI has worked to
usher in dry air from continental CAN since mid week last week. A
stark moisture gradient continues to be present over IL/WI/IA, with
1" or higher PWATs to the west and 0.5" or less to the east (0.22"
PWAT on the 00z KAPX RAOB).

Today, northern MI will continue to be influenced by the high
pressure near the surface and upper ridge overhead strengthening.
Temperatures will warm into the high 70s to low 80s for most
locations. Breezy afternoon winds will establish under a very mixed
boundary layer this afternoon. Lake breeze winds will be seen as
diurnal influences will be largely un-disturbed. Another afternoon of
elevated fire danger will be seen for all of northern lower today
due to these prolonged drying conditions and min RHs remaining
around the high teens to mid 20s. Afternoon breezy winds and very
unstable air within the boundary layer also contribute to these high
fire danger conditions.

Wednesday, the upper ridge continue to influence the area as it
slowly moves eastward. Similar conditions will be seen for
Wednesday, with winds starting to trend west/southwest late
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Continued subsidence under the
upper ridge yields 850 mb temps that are a couple of degrees warmer
Wednesday, meaning high temperatures will likely warm into the low to
mid 80s for most of the area (some interior spots could reach into
the high 80s).

Thursday, gradients start to strengthen as the upper closed low gets
a push from a deep mid-lat cyclone approaching the Pac NW. The
moisture to the west will now begin to move eastward, resulting in a
return of long awaited rain chances for northern. Rain chances could
begin as early as Thursday for the eastern U.P., and Friday morning
for parts of northern lower. Rain and storm chances linger into
Saturday, before drying returns Sunday/Monday.

Guidance continues to show signs that aren`t the most optimistic for
widespread wetting rains as the incoming moisture will have
weakening dynamics, the very dry airmass near the surface will have
to be overcome, and this will be largely recycled moisture.
Southerly winds over the central plains will establish returning
deep gulf moisture into the southern extent of this airmass, however
there is a high probability that remains to the south of the state
(or to the south of northern MI). With this said, the mean of most
global ensembles does show  over 1" PWATs for Friday and
Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible, and
would yield some higher totals in spots. However, the distribution
of beneficial rain will likely not be uniform. With the possibility
of this being a rather quick window of rain and dry conditions
returning, we are getting an early start to the CPC outlook that
slots northern MI for below normal precipitation during June.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR with lots of SKC through the forecast period. Light and
variable winds tonight pick up out of the N and NE Tuesday,
gusts perhaps occasionally touching 15kts. Lake breezes likely
in the afternoon. Winds likely go light to calm after sunset.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...HAD