365
FXUS63 KAPX 201856
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
156 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers/drizzle through this evening.

- Low end rain/snow chances late Saturday/Saturday night.

- Watching potential for more wet weather Tuesday before turning
  colder and potentially snowier toward Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure sits
across northern Manitoba this afternoon with an attendant ~1001mb
surface low pressure centered over northern Ontario. Cold front tied
to this system trails south across the central/western U.P., into
northern WI, and farther west into the Plains. That boundary crosses
APX`s footprint this evening through tonight. Not a huge post-
frontal cooldown for Friday, but lingering troughing overhead and
potential for embedded subtle wave(s) along with H8 temps falling to
-5 to -8 C over the tip of the mitt and eastern upper may provide
enough support for additional isolated to scattered rain/snow
showers, despite a dearth of moisture.

Forecast Details: Drizzle/rain shower chances exist through the
remainder of the daylight hours into this evening. The highest
chances for most numerous showers will remain focused across far
northern areas -- tied closer to better forcing/moisture (which
really lies even farther north into Ontario). Certainly not a big
QPF-maker by any stretch, with chances waning by late evening into
the overnight hours.

By late tonight - early Friday morning, start to cool the column
enough to introduce snow shower chances back into the forecast --
primarily where over-lake instability sufficiently increases post-
frontal.  Primary area for this is across parts of the eastern U.P.
and to a lesser extent over the typical interior areas of
northern/northwest lower. Again, this doesn`t appear to be a big
deal either given increasingly dry air above a shrinking inversion
really limiting much of this activity. A general drying trend
continues Friday afternoon with highs in the low 40s area-wide.

Southwest winds continue this afternoon, breezy at times, especially
near the shorelines. Winds weaken and veer more westerly with time
through the overnight hours. A touch breezy again Friday again.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Pattern Forecast: By late Friday night into Saturday morning, mid-
level shortwave ridging is expected to be sliding into the western
Great Lakes, with attendant sfc high pressure centered nearby/
overhead. These features quickly ushered east in advance of a
shortwave trough dropping southeast across central Canada. This wave
may support isentropically driven rain/snow showers later
Saturday/Saturday night before high pressure returns to wrap up the
weekend into the start of next week. Focus really turns toward the
middle of next week as there`s good ensemble agreement for storm
potential somewhere across the nation`s midsection -- with a trend
toward colder weather for the second half of the week, potentially
increasing chances for snow during at least a part of the busy
Thanksgiving travel period.

Day 2-3 (Fri. night through Saturday): Tranquil conditions expected
Friday night through much of Saturday. Low end rain/snow shower
chances arrive late in the day Saturday into Saturday night,
especially across far northern areas tied closer to better pockets
of forcing.

Day 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday): A dry and increasingly "mild" stretch
of weather anticipated Sunday and Monday with high temps in the mid-
upper 40s for most. Chances for wet weather increase as early as
Tuesday as longer range trends point toward a strengthening storm
system across the middle of the country. As expected, lots of
uncertainties with respect to the details at day 6-7+, but potential
is certainly there for a return to colder/more snowy weather on the
backside of this system mid-late next week. A time frame that`ll
certainly be worth monitoring closely given potential for impacts to
busy holiday travel.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

MVFR and IFR CIGs with periods of LIFR will continue to expand
across the region this afternoon/evening with isolated -SHRA
and VCSH through Friday night. Flight conditions will slowly
improve back to VFR categories midday Friday and beyond the
forecast period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344-345.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SJC