836
FXUS63 KAPX 171059
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
659 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather to start the week with mostly sunny skies and highs in
  the upper 70s/low 80s today.

- Shower/storm chances return on Tuesday. Severe storms are not
  expected.

- Slightly cooler temperatures in store through the middle of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A mid/upper-level jet max will continue to punch across far
southeast Canada today with zonal flow over the region to start the
work week. High pressure will temporarily nose into the Great Lakes
today, eventually getting shunted to our south as seasonably-strong
troughing digs across the region Tuesday through the middle of the
week. Favorable divergence aloft will support the surface cyclone
set to trek across Hudson Bay Tuesday and Wednesday with the
attendant surface cold front expected to swing across northern
Michigan in the late Tuesday/early Wednesday timeframe. Surface high
pressure looks to build back into the region behind this during the
second half of the week before additional troughing digs in heading
into next weekend.

Forecast Details:

Increasingly dry air will filter into the region with northwest
winds behind the frontal passage today, making for mostly sunny
skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Rain
chances return to the forecast early Tuesday morning for parts of
the Northwoods as the aforementioned front approaches from the west.
As noted by the previous forecaster, evolution of shower/storm
chances Tuesday may bear similarities to yesterday -- current
confidence is that this will not be a widespread rainfall event,
with periods of scattered showers and perhaps a few storms Tuesday
morning and again later Tuesday afternoon/evening as the front moves
through. Thus, some areas may see little/no appreciable rainfall.
Meager instability and effective deep-layer shear will certainly
limit thunderstorm potential and keep severe storm potential very
low.

Rain chances look to diminish Tuesday night, leaving dry weather in
place on Wednesday as high pressure builds in. Northwest flow will
advect cooler, drier air into the Great Lakes through the middle of
the week and keep afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s for most
areas. This could open the door for overnight lows to dip into the
40s for some areas Wednesday night/Thursday night should winds/cloud
cover allow for efficient radiational cooling overnight. Looking
ahead, rain chances move back in later Friday/Saturday as troughing
works back into the Great Lakes for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 659 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Patchy FG/BR across northern Michigan will quickly dissipate this
morning, leaving VFR conditions in place through this evening.
Northwest winds will increase to around 5-10 kts this morning with
gusts to around 15 kts at times through this afternoon. Winds will
diminish this evening. Light shower chances return late in the
issuance period, primarily across the eastern U.P.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...DJC