541
FXUS63 KAPX 022004
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
304 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and rain will begin tonight, healthy amounts across E UP.

- Showers remain at times Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

- Mild to warm through mid-week, some records may be challenged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Large trough complex currently resides over the Front Range/High
Plains with associated elongated, or soon to be elongating, sfc low
pressure system across the Plains. Nice scoop of column moisture
from this system being advected northward, quite anomalous for this
time of year. As the trough complex moves eastward with time, this
moisture goes with it, beginning tonight and remaining into mid
week.

Sfc cyclone generally moves northeast with time tonight in response
to the northern piece of energy within this troughing complex.
Meanwhile, a secondary cyclone begins to take shape across the C
Plains-ish area due to the main upper low`s height falls. Given the
track of the low pressure and subsequent upper divergence, northern
Lake Michigan and adjacent eastern UP will see the best coverage and
health of precipitation tonight. There is some potential for
>0.5" of rainfall overnight, which will be relatively efficient
rainfall given the anomalous moisture. As the main trough
continues northeastward and secondary low pressure system
follows a similar trajectory as the first, the forcing will
remain, at least temporarily, best across the E UP with
additional shower and rain chances. Instability profiles are
extremely meager given the saturated profiles and lack of
healthy dews at the sfc. While a brief convective nature to some
of this activity cannot be ruled out, especially later tonight
into Tuesday across the E UP, this will only produce locally
higher rainfall totals. Nevertheless, through this period,
tonight through Tuesday night, the E UP could see 0.5 to 1.0"+
of rainfall, which should be spread out enough to be beneficial
(D2 drought currently in E UP). Generally, rainfall amounts
taper the farther southeast one goes across northern lower MI
due to lack of forcing. Could only see a tenth of two or less
across much of northern lower MI. Breezy conditions are
anticipated on Tuesday as well, especially near and west of
I-75, and more particularly, the Lake Michigan shoreline.

As we head into Wednesday, cyclone and upper low mature over the
Upper Midwest and slowly move east, and precipitation chances will
continue and spread over much of northern lower MI and eastern upper
MI through the day. Rainfall amounts are progged to be relatively
light, despite the impressive pattern overall as the upper low moves
over the area. Looks like we could almost be in no mans land to a
degree over northern lower, where the best upper forcing does not
marry with the low level lift, and thus the lack of true, widespread
wetting rains. Instability profiles look meager at best with warm
temps aloft as well. Nevertheless, showers are still expected across
the area, moving west to east, within a moist environment, as the
upper low migrates eastward. Any subtleties with a progged short wave
rotating through the main upper low could change the precipitation
footprint as well, so worth keeping an eye on in regards to
rain chances. Throughout this entire time, temperatures will run
well above average for early November, with widespread mid to
upper 60s, to perhaps low 70s, for daytime highs both Tuesday
and Wednesday.

As the parent upper low meanders to the east late week, another
piece of energy dives into its backside and right over northern MI.
So, despite the best moisture evacuating to the east Thursday and
Friday, this reinvigorated energy will keep showers in the forecast
late week. We watch another system for this weekend diving out of
the northwest. Current forecast cools temps back down to seasonable,
or slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Currently VFR for all terminals with generally E/SE winds AOB
10kts. Conditions will change during this forecast period as a
stronger system to the west approaches. The first wave of -RA
will track over KCIU/KPLN shortly after 00z, reaching KAPN later
(after 06z). For KTVC/KMBL, a warm front will push through
around 21z and bring MVFR cigs with S winds of G15kts. VCSH will
be possible for most sites after 00z, and conditions degrade to
mostly MVFR/IFR cigs by 06z. Times of MVFR vis is possible too
as -RA/SHRA move over terminals. Intermittent -SHRA will
persist through the end of the period for all site minus KAPN
who will see activity end by 16z. An LLJ will result in
wind shear of 30kts at 2 kft with slight directional
differences overnight. Gusty S winds will be seen after 14z for
most sites through the end of the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 PM EST
     Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JLD