191
FXUS63 KAPX 312131
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
531 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms possible later tonight.

- Mostly dry and warm Tuesday with rain chances returning
  Wednesday.

- Dry weather currently expected for much of the upcoming
  holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to slide over the Great Lakes this evening and
tonight, eventually departing east Tuesday as a seasonably strong
shortwave trough punches overhead by Tuesday night. The warm front
currently draped mainly west/east across the Straits will gradually
lift north with time tonight. Meanwhile, the parent cyclone tied to
the aforementioned shortwave will trek across south-central Canada
through the first half of the week, potentially swinging a diffuse
cold front into the area in the Wednesday/Wednesday night timeframe.
Expansive ridging is then expected to amplify across much of center
of the continent late this week and through this weekend.

Forecast Details:

Widespread rain from earlier this morning has moved on well to the
southeast this afternoon with only a few additional showers/storms
popping up in the wake near Saginaw Bay. Expectation is that the
vast majority of northern Michigan will remain dry this afternoon
and evening with partly to mostly clear skies at sunset. Another
round of showers/storms is possible later tonight. Additional
convection is likely to initiate across north-central Wisconsin this
evening along/ahead of the front, eventually working into northern
Michigan very late this evening and tonight. Thunderstorm intensity
upon arrival is in question, but elevated buoyancy in excess of
1,000 J/kg and ~30 kts of deep-layer shear could support a strong
storm or two -- and this aligns with a marginal risk (1/5) for
severe storms in the latest convective outlook from SPC. A quick
0.5"-1"+ of additional rainfall will still be possible should
organized storms move across the area tonight given near-
climatological max PWATs in place to support efficient rainfall.

While rain-free, warm weather is expected for most of northern
Michigan on Tuesday, a few pop-up showers and storms cannot be
completely ruled out across northeast lower. That said, mostly to
partly sunny skies with highs climbing well into the 80s -- and even
close to 90 locally -- are in store for the afternoon. Widespread
rain and embedded thunder chances return to the forecast Wednesday
as aforementioned troughing slides over the Great Lakes. With
ridging expected to build behind this, rain chances appear low late
this week and through much of the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Conditions will range from IFR north to VFR south across
northern MI through much of this evening. Still expecting an
expanding stratus field and fog/mist to return early Tuesday
morning across much of the area, along with at least a low
chance for scattered showers/storms across parts of the forecast
area. Improvement area- wide to VFR expected Tuesday morning,
with skies trending mostly sunny through the afternoon. Light
winds expected through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345-
     346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MSB