819
FXUS63 KAPX 010314
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1114 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few showers tonight, mild Sunday.

- Milder still early to mid next week with increasing rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

On the leading edge of brief height rises tonight, warm advection
and modest moisture transport will support some showers. Generally
of the light variety, with accums <0.10" most if not all locations.
Heading into Sunday, short wave within the upper flow generally
passes through and to the south of northern MI, with little in the
way of moisture to work with during the day. Temps rise a few
degrees on Sunday in response to the southwest flow as sfc high
pressure centers around NJ with low pressure system taking shape
across the Intermountain West.

Early next week, the trough associated with the recent floods across
the Southwest will continue to move eastward with time, with a fast
moving upper low and associated jet stream ejecting on the eastern
side of the trough. This feature will move up into the N/C
Plains and Upper Midwest. This lead piece of energy will induce
a sfc low pressure system tracking into the Plains and eventually
Midwest/Upper Midwest regions. Consequently, anomalous column
moisture will advect into northern MI during that Monday through
Wednesday time frame, with the potential for wetting rains.
Current trough, sfc low, and moisture trajectory point towards
the healthiest rains across Upper Michigan with the lead warm
and moist advection later Monday and Monday night, which would
include the eastern UP. Potential exists for a break in the
action before another round wetting rains possible along the
cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday-ish. The timing and
details of this will change some with time. Taking a look at
the Total QPF 50th percentile from all the major ensembles
(GEPS, GEFS, and EPS, thrown in the GEFS AI and AIFS as well)
suggests the potential for ~0.25 to 0.75" across northern
lower, and ~0.50 to 1.0" for eastern upper. This will be
dependent on how the upper level features and subsequent sfc
features interact and ultimately migrate. Temperatures prior to
the eventual cold frontal passage will be in the 60s most areas,
likely into Wednesday.

Energy in some capacity tries to migrate/linger across the Ohio
Valley/MS Valley late week, although varying within each
deterministic model solution. Thus, showery activity may linger
late week as hinted by ensembles. The messiness of the upper
level features makes this portion of the forecast quite fuzzy
and low confidence, but at least some showers may remain late
week. Looks slightly cooler as well, but still above normal for
the first week of November.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Primarily VFR conditions expected through today into this
evening under some passing mid level clouds. May see a few
light showers/sprinkles fall out of this mid cloud deck early on
this morning, but nothing impactful expected. Will still need to
watch for a period of MVFR cigs developing this morning across
KCIU. Not overly confident is this occurring...covering with
just tempo wording for now. Light winds will continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MSB