785
FXUS63 KAPX 171837
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
137 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Largely dry weather carrying past midweek with a slight
  warming trend.

- Next rain chances set for later Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: This afternoon, closed upper-level low
pressure sits downstream over far eastern Canada/New Brunswick with
longwave trough axis draped down the East Coast.  Upstream ridging
ejecting lee of the Rockies will continue to result in slow height
rises locally. Embedded upstream shortwave over the Plains will make
headway across the mid-MS Valley and southern Great Lakes tonight-
Tuesday, bringing inclement weather chances downstate, but largely
miss much of APX`s footprint as high pressure prevails.

Forecast Details: Northwest flow continues this afternoon, breezy at
times, especially near the big lakes. While over-lake thermal
gradient remains sufficient for lake induced clouds/light snow
showers, a very dry airmass exists above a sub 5kft (and shrinking)
inversion. So while an occasional snow shower will likely continue
to dot the map (especially across portions of the eastern U.P.), not
expecting much in the way of accumulation or impact. Those chances
dwindle further tonight with more breaks in the clouds and lighter
winds expected to prevail. Should set up for a decent radiational
cooling night where clear skies present themselves. Lows largely in
the 20s area-wide with at least low probabilities for some of the
typically colder spots to fall into the upper teens.

By Tuesday morning, low pressure to our southwest should be driving
rain/snow to our south and southwest. Focus will largely revolve
around monitoring just how far north precip can make it. Latest
trends continue to support this staying to our south with just an
uptick in cloud cover noted during the day, primarily south of M-72.
High temps in the 30s to low 40s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Pattern Forecast: High pressure continues to dominate locally
through the midweek time frame. By Thursday, mid-upper level wave
and attendant sfc reflection are expected to be cruising well to our
north across Canada. Latest trends support a cold front tied to this
system crossing northern MI on Thursday -- largely supporting
renewed rain shower chances Thursday afternoon/evening. Post-frontal
cold air not all that impressive with daily high temperatures
stilled progged in to the 40s area-wide Friday through the upcoming
weekend.

Day 2-3 (Tue. night through Wed. night): Little in the way of
sensible weather anticipated Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Coldest night expected Tuesday night with upper teens and low 20s
inland to mid-20s near the coasts. Highs Wednesday back into the low
40s area-wide under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Day 4-7 (Thursday - Sunday): Focus through the extended revolves
around the Thursday - Thursday night time frame as aforementioned
upstream cold front crosses northern MI. This supports increasing
rain chances from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. While cold air behind the front is far from
impressive, there`s enough support to reintroduce snow shower
chances Friday through Friday night, primarily across eastern upper
and the tip of the mitt where lingering synoptic moisture is better
and over-water thermal gradient is better sufficient.

While some uncertainty exists regarding another northern stream wave
late in the weekend, largely dry conditions are expected to return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR flight conditions will continue through the entire forecast
period as CIGs continue to scour from all TAF locations tonight.
Current north-northwest winds will continue to calm overnight
becoming variable/backing slightly by Tuesday morning as SHSN track
across southern Michigan.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SJC