612
FXUS63 KAPX 232212
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
612 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds and cool temperatures continue Monday with dry
weather expected through the first half of the week.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Impressive late-summer troughing will continue to churn over the
Great Lakes tonight as it eventually lifts northeast early this
week. The associated surface cyclone centered along the
Ontario/Quebec border will weaken with time as the system becomes
increasingly vertically stacked, cutting off favorable advections
for support. Meanwhile, ridging sliding over the northern Great
Plains will help build surface high pressure across the region
through the first half of the week. Troughing eventually works back
overhead during the second half of the week, likely bringing another
system across the Great Lakes in the late Wednesday/Thursday
timeframe.

Forecast Details:

Fall-feeling weather across the area today with breezy winds and
cool temperatures will continue into Monday. While afternoon highs
will be a few degrees warmer on Monday, readings are still expected
to stay in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the area -- around 5
degrees cooler than late-August averages. Northwest winds between 10-
20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph will persist this afternoon and
continue Monday as well, although slightly less windy conditions are
anticipated tomorrow. Isolated to scattered light lake enhanced rain
showers today are also expected to draw to a close for most areas
later this evening and tonight as an increasingly hostile
environment moves in as aforementioned high pressure builds. The
exception will be across the far eastern U.P./Lake Huron shoreline
tonight into early Monday morning as rain looks to linger on the
backside of the system as it exits. Cannot completely rule out a few
showers Monday, but the first half of the week is expected to be dry
across northern Michigan.

Our next chances for rain will return late Wednesday and Thursday as
troughing digs back into the Great Lakes. Timing appears to be
delayed some from previous forecast cycles, potentially keeping most
of Wednesday dry. That said, steadier rain chances appear
increasingly likely in the front end of this system late
Wednesday/early Thursday with additional rain showers possible
through late Thursday on the backside of the departing system.
Otherwise, highs will warm back into the upper 70s and low 80s by
Tuesday with temperatures set to cool back into the upper 60s and
70s during the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Band of MVFR producing low clouds and some light showers
expected to continue to impact KCIU and KAPN tonight into Monday
morning. May also see some of this lower overcast impact KPLN at
times tonight into Sunday morning as well. Cigs will only
slowly improve at KCIU and KAPN through Monday, with more rapid
improvement at KPLN during the morning. VFR conditions the
remainder of the taf locations through the period under some
passing higher based cumulus at times. Gusty northwest winds
will continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016-
     018-020-021-024>026-031-098-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MSB