937
FXUS63 KAPX 241918
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
318 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Watching the potential for some strong thunderstorms later
  tonight into Tuesday.

- Additional chances of active weather return this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Mid/upper level ridge in the process of building east across the
area early this afternoon as its surface reflection pushes off into
the northern Ohio Valley. Attendant dry air and deep layer
subsidence resulting in one downright pleasant early summer day
across the Northwoods, with sun-filled skies and temperatures
recovering up to near normal levels in the 70s and lower 80s.

Rather rapid changes set to take place overnight into Tuesday as
shortwave trough, currently racing east across the southern lands of
Canada and northern Montana, pushes into the western Great Lakes by
morning. Surge of pre-system warm, moist advection and eventual
passage of cold front set to bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms into the region later tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Late night into Tuesday shower/storm evolution and severe weather
potential.

Details:

Pleasant evening expected with just some increasing clouds with
time. Unfortunately, uncertainty ramps up significantly as we head
into the overnight. Strong moisture advection on nose of organizing
and intensifying low level jet and attendant rapidly increasing
upstream instability axis will drive the organization and
intensification of showers and thunderstorms to our west. What
happens thereafter remains the unanswered question. If convective
allowing guidance`s placement/evolution of low level jet and folding
instability gradient is realized, then shower/storm evolution should
trend southeast, with most organized and intense activity sliding
into southwest lower Michigan later tonight...leaving more "generic"
and more scattered activity to impact our area. Pattern recognition
of these type of systems strongly supports this idea. However, if
forced convergence on nose of low level jet is displaced just a bit
further north, then upstream more organized and intense activity has
a much better chance to impact at least parts of our area later
tonight into early Tuesday. Will definitely need to monitor, as
increasing deep layer shear through the depth of the convective
layer would support a least a low end severe wind threat...as well
as some marginal severe size hail. Latest SPC convective outlook
continues to highlight this potential, placing nearly all of
northern Michigan into a marginal risk for severe weather.

What happens tonight/early Tuesday morning will significantly dictate
what transpires later Tuesday. Actual cold front set to cut west to
east across our area during the morning and early afternoon, with
that timing at least theoretically supporting the potential for
additional destabilization...especially across northeast lower
Michigan (if skies can at least partially clear). However, primary
instability axis will remain well south of us, and any pre-frontal
convergence axis (from morning showers/storms) may drive best
convergence south and east of our area before actual front arrives.
Very possible late Tuesday morning and afternoon are completely
devoid of any activity, with showers and storms remaining east and
south of our area. Again...if storms can develop, isolated severe
potential will continue given brisk wind fields through the
vertical.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing will continue chances of active weather before a
ridge of high pressure builds overhead promoting quieter weather by
mid-week. Low pressure tracks along the northern U.S and Canadian
border, and eventually to Lake Superior for Friday/Saturday,
bringing back the next chances for showers/ thunderstorms.
Temperatures will increase throughout the week then decrease for the
weekend as active weather is expected to return.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Precipitation Chances: A shortwave trough will slide across the
Great Lakes Region Wednesday bringing increasing cloud cover through
the day. Some guidance hints that some light showers could be
possible later in the day Wednesday, but confidence is low.
Attention then turns to a longwave trough and its associated low
pressure will track towards the Great Lakes Region Friday/Saturday
bringing active weather back to the forecast area. It`s still too
early to message specific impacts, but guidance suggests that it`s
likely active weather will return for this weekend- Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Only concern is expected arrival of showers and embedded
thunderstorms, along with MVFR producing low clouds, from west
to east across the taf locations later tonight into early
Tuesday morning. Plenty of uncertainty remains with regards to
overall shower/storm coverage and intensity...with growing support
most organized and intense storms pass across southwest lower
Michigan. Will convey this uncertainty through vicinity thunder
wording for now. If a north trend materializes, then stronger
storms will be capable of producing brief very gusty winds and
heavy rain. Slow improvement expected as we head through later
Tuesday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MSB