801
FXUS63 KAPX 050626
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
226 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms today into Saturday.

- Heat and humidity build next week with occasional thunderstorm chances.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A more active pattern will remain in place through Saturday as
multiple waves of energy continue to track through the Great
Lakes. Today (especially later this afternoon into tonight) will
feature the best chances for widespread rainfall across
northern Michigan as deeper moisture overspreads the region and
a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms work west to east
through the day. Timing still appears to favor areas near and
east of I-75 during the afternoon and evening hours, though
confidence in the exact evolution of rainfall remains somewhat
tempered by guidance differences regarding the placement and
strength of the forcing. Regardless, much of northern Michigan
looks to receive at least some scattered showers, with the
highest coverage and greatest rainfall totals favoring areas
south of M-72, where WPC has a Marginal Risk (at least a 5%
chance) of excessive rainfall. PWAT values continue to be
advertised above an inch with dewpoints still reaching the 60s,
supporting scattered periods of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall (mainly favoring this afternon/ evening into tonight,
with scattered showers through the day trying to "break" through
a lot of dry air set in place).

Shower chances will continue into tonight as additional energy
approaches from the west. Another round of showers and a few
thunderstorms is then expected Saturday as a shortwave crosses
the region. Coverage should gradually diminish from northeast to
southeast later Saturday into Saturday night as drier air
begins filtering back into the region.

Conditions quiet down considerably from Sunday into early next
week as upper ridging and surface high pressure build across the
Great Lakes. This will support a return to mainly dry weather
along with a warming trend, with temperatures climbing well into
the 80s and perhaps 90s by early next week. While most
locations should remain dry through at least Tuesday, the
aforementioned ridge may gradually shift east with time,
allowing moisture and thunderstorm chances to begin creeping
back into the forecast by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Light winds and increasing clouds tonight as a cold front
approaches from the NW. -SHRA possible by 12z at all sites
except APN, which will see their chances increase later in the
morning. High cloud bases should keep flight categories in VFR
through the morning barring a rogue TSRA or embedded downpour
passing over a TAF site. Better -SHRA and / or TSRA coverage
across northern lower in the afternoon and into the evening,
with low CIGs possible toward the end of the forecast period...
perhaps as low as IFR. Southerly winds likely gusting 20kts+ by
late Friday morning into the afternoon trend weaker after
sunset.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...HAD