039
FXUS63 KAPX 032350
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
750 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High fire danger continues through Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return late week into early part of
  weekend.

- Warm temperatures continue next week with mid to upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Temperatures continue to rise on Thursday (mid to upper 80s),
as high pressure to the south remains an influencing factor.
Deep afternoon mixing will result in breezy and dry conditions
and thus, high fire danger once again. Boundary layer winds are
~15-20 KTs, and so wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are likely,
slightly higher west of 75. Given the deep mixing, briefly
stronger gusts will be possible. Otherwise, high and dry on
Thursday as energy out of the Plains coagulates and moves
eastward.

Our next chance for meaningful precipitation will be ~Friday and
Friday night as a mess of upper energy and sfc boundaries work into
northern Michigan. As this activity moves eastward on Friday, a
notable uptick in moisture is anticipated, with PWs ~1.5"+ and
dewpoints approaching the lower 60s. Consequently, showers and
thunderstorms will develop across northern MI. Definitely some
questions regarding morning showers on Friday and how that will
impact instability and any severe/heavy rain threat. Current
guidance hints at the best moderate rain potential near Manistee and
vicinity as thunderstorms develop west of Lake Michigan and attempt
to move east as an MCS, to some degree. This is also where the best
pool of instability will likely reside. Something to fine tune in
the coming shifts as these subtle pieces of energy, some
convectively agitated, all interact. Thought process at this time is
for a band of showers to move in early to midday Friday, with the
best potential for thunderstorms later Friday and Friday night,
especially with any activity that moves in off of Lake Michigan.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday as
another short wave swings through and phases with some of the
ongoing loose energies east of northern MI.

Upper high builds over the Great Lakes Region Sunday through next
week. Guidance showing >590 decameter high pressure influencing
northern MI as a matter of fact. Consequently, temperatures will
rise into the mid 80s to  at least during the early to middle
portions of next week. In fact, NBM probs for high temps 90F or more
steadily increase through next week. That being said, if high
pressure drifts a little to the east, then moisture and a renewed
chance for showers and storms will develop. Conversely, if high
pressure remains locked in overhead, warm/hot and dry weather will
remain. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

As has been the case the last several days, VFR conditions continue
across northern Michigan through 00Z Friday. Weak/calm winds are
anticipated tonight with potential for land breeze formation late.
Winds increase out of the southwest Thursday morning to around 10
kts sustained with gusts to 20-25 kts at times through the
afternoon. Lake breeze formation will likely push a few miles inland
from Lake Huron Thursday afternoon, but struggle to reach APN given
the strength of southwest winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...DJC