504
FXUS63 KAPX 132345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
745 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Focused band of showers continues this afternoon into tonight.

- Warming trend this weekend into next week with periods of
  more active weather possible next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, disorganized low
pressure sits well to our southwest over the Missouri Valley and
high pressure anchored northern Ontario. Northern Michigan
sandwiched in between with a decaying frontal boundary/baroclinic
zone stretched west to east across lower MI (evidenced well by
50s/low 60s north and mid 70s to 80 downstate). Showers continue to
percolate across parts of the forecast area through the remainder of
the day into tonight before low pressure and attendant mid-level
wave trek into Ohio Valley and low-level convergence washes out.
While a few showers may linger through Saturday, a general warming
trend is anticipated.

Forecast Details: Showers continue to be focused across a relatively
narrow area early this afternoon -- generally from near the M-32
corridor northward to the Straits/southern Mackinac County.
Expectation is for this to continue across the same area (perhaps
filling in at times to near M-72) through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening. By later this evening/overnight, best
low-level forcing is expected to be waning with showers turning more
scattered in nature. For Saturday, most numerous shower activity is
likely to be focused to our west over northern WI and parts of the
central U.P., but will continue to carry slight chance to chance
PoPs across parts of northwest lower and the eastern U.P. as
lingering showers may squeeze into the area at times. That said, a
general drying trend is anticipated Saturday under partly to mostly
cloudy skies north/more sun south with high temps back into the 60s
for most with some low-mid 70s possible over the southern half of
the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Pattern Forecast: More zonal/weakly ridged mid-upper levels
anticipated to be overhead Saturday night through the end of the
weekend. Canadian-originated high pressure sagging into the area
from the north should largely keep sensible weather to a minimum
through this time frame. Waves of energy ramping up over the
nation`s midsection late in the weekend will return what looks to be
a more active stretch of weather to the Great Lakes as early as
Sunday night, but more so at times Monday through the remainder of
the forecast period.

Forecast Details: Not much in the way of sensible weather
anticipated Saturday night through Sunday as high pressure nosing in
from the north should largely keep dry low-mid level air in place
with partially clear skies and high temps in the 70s area-wide for
Sunday.

Uncertainty increases as early as Sunday night, and while the
majority of latest trends support mainly dry conditions, at least
low potential exists for upstream convection Sunday afternoon to
make an eastward run toward northern Michigan Sunday night, albeit
in decaying fashion. Chances for diurnally driven instability
showers/storms seem feasible each afternoon next week as
heat/humidity build with a couple of periods featuring higher PoPs
as mid-level waves trek across the region. Most likely time frames
for better shower/storm coverage currently favored around Tuesday
and again Wednesday night/Thursday. Of course, plenty of time for
timing/placement of these waves to change, but by and large, a
relatively active week appears to be on tap for next week.

High temps Monday-Wednesday favored to be in the 80s across much of
northern lower -- cooler near the lakeshores and north of the bridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through the period with
occasional -SHRA through the early portions of the overnight.
CIGs generally BKN-OVC050, with light but east to northeast
winds. Skies become more SCT on Saturday with mostly dry
conditions (cannot rule out a few ISO -SHRA) and VFR continuing.
Took a look at the WS potential tonight as well and based on
the latest data looks like all locations will stay below
criteria (30KTs) tonight. East winds continue on Saturday, at
about 5 to 10 KTs.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JLD