552
FXUS63 KAPX 181044
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
644 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms this
  afternoon/evening. A few strong storms possible.

- Quiet Wednesday-Thursday

- Unsettled again Thu night into this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

An upper low is gradually transiting Hudson Bay and northern Quebec
this work week. This will tend to keep our heights somewhat
suppressed, and temps will follow suit. A cold front passage
tonight will contribute to our initial chances for rain.
After a break, unsettled wx returns for the very end of the
week.

Outside of more marine locales, surface dew points are in the 50s
early this morning. Though these will rebound somewhat today,
to near 60s/lower 60s, this will still tend to limit available
instability before cold fropa. MlCape values rise to up to
750j/kg by late afternoon in the south half of the forecast
area. Turning this into actual convection is not entirely
certain; we will mix up into west 1km winds pre-fropa, and
convergence along the front will be unimpressive.

Current shower activity in the western UP will expand eastward, and
some showers could reach western Chip/Mack Cos before 12z. Chancy
pops will continue to expand south/east thru very early afternoon.
Pops will increase further moving thru the afternoon/evening as
instability peaks. Activity rapidly weakens/exits eastward
toward/after midnight. 0-6km bulk shear values are 30-40kt, so
we perhaps have enough instability and shear for a strong storm
or two, but severe storms are not likely. SPC has tucked a
marginal day 1 severe risk into the MBL/CAD/Gladwin area (not a
huge fan).

Much drier air invades behind this front, with dew points lowering
into the 40s in some areas Wed night-Thu night. Dry wx expected Wed-
Thu, with near seasonable highs but lows below normal.

More unsettled wx Thu night into Saturday. Expect energy to dig and
eventually close off in the central/eastern lakes region this
weekend. Initial chancy pops in the west and north Thu night, become
likely across most of northern MI by Fri afternoon/evening. May have
to watch out for stronger storms then as well. Likely turning cooler
with and behind this system for Sunday-Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Numerous showers and a few TSRA will expand into the area today.
Most of this activity will fall out of a mid cloud deck (above
6k ft), though a TSRA or heavier shower would briefly have
lower cigs. Ditto vsbys, mostly VFR unless struck by a TSRA or
better showers. So TAFs are pretty optimistic, mostly VFR,
though brief restrictions are possible at all sites. May have
to watch for some fog very late tonight, though. Winds increase
today, initially sw but then w by midday and nw by this evening.
Winds decrease tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ