379
FXUS63 KAPX 141759
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
159 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies continue; isolated shower/storm possible this afternoon

- Warming trend through Tuesday

- Next chances for more widespread rain arrive Wednesday/Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Nearly zonal flow across the western
Great Lakes today becomes more weakly ridged during the day Tuesday
in advance of low amplitude troughing set to sag across the middle
of the country during the midweek time frame. A weak/decaying
frontal boundary/surface trough is in the process of crossing the
eastern U.P. and Straits area early this afternoon, but with limited
fanfare. By tonight, attention turns to low pressure gathering
strength upstream over the northern Plains. Warm front stretching
eastward from this system should be in place to our north by Tuesday
with northern MI entirely in the warm sector setting up for a very
warm day (albeit still somewhat smoke/haze dependent). This boundary
will provide the focus for additional waves to ride along as it
slowly sags south across the Great Lakes through midweek.

Forecast Details: Plenty of haziness as a result of wildfire smoke
continues across the state today, but with only limited surface
visibility restrictions this afternoon as mixing heights have risen.
Lingering shower/storm chance across eastern upper this afternoon,
primarily along the aforementioned decaying boundary and the
developing lake breeze convergence axis. Environment could
potentially support some small hail and gusty outflow winds from any
storms able to sustain themselves for a period of time. These non-
zero chances extend into far northeast lower as well.

By Tuesday, increasing heat expected to be the main story. Still
some hazy skies, especially early in the day, but hi-res smoke
allowing guidance suggests highest concentrations of smoke should
displaced well downstream. Highs expected to range from the upper
80s to low/mid 90s (warmest in downsloping areas). Touch cooler at
the beaches, of course. As initial wave of low pressure rides along
that nearly stalled boundary to our north, it`s conceivable as few
showers/storms work their way into sections of the eastern U.P. at
times. Suppose a stronger storm or two can`t entirely be ruled out,
especially if any upstream convective clusters are able to work this
far east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Pattern Forecast: Upstream slow-moving/quasi-stationary boundary
continues to very slowly sag south across the western Great Lakes
through the midweek time frame. Mid-level shortwave(s) embedded
within larger scale troughing and attendant waves of sfc low
pressure expected to continue ride along this boundary at times.
Still plenty of uncertainty regarding the evolution and speed of
this system, but suffice to say that midweek will feature the
highest precipitation chances of the forecast period. High pressure
settles into the region behind this system for late week into the
start of the weekend. Additional shower/storm chances follow toward
the tail end of the period as another wave and associated surface
reflection barrel across the northern tier of the CONUS.

Forecast Details: As noted by the prior forecaster, pretty high
likelihood that more numerous showers/storms prevail across northern
Michigan through the midweek time frame. Lower confidence in
coverage/timing, potential for heavy rain and severe weather
chances. Current confidence lies in a solution that features
scattered shower/storm development during the day Wednesday in an
increasingly muggy airmass. This followed by potential for more
numerous/widespread precipitation later Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Given flow nearly parallel to that slow moving
boundary, training appears to be a possibility lending credence to a
locally heavy rain threat -- this sufficiently supported by WPC`s
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Trending drier and cooler post frontal passage to wrap up the work
week with highs back into the 70s. Additional precip chances follow
late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Smokey/ hazy skies continue to impact Northern Michigan through
early tonight. MVFR to low end VFR visibilities look to
continue this afternoon, with an improving trend through the
period as the impactful smoke disperses out of the region. Winds
will shift southwest late tonight into Tuesday with occasional
gusts 15 to 20 knots. Isolated showers will be possible across
some terminals this afternoon/ evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...NSC