395
FXUS63 KAPX 131824
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
224 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers this afternoon/evening.

- Cooler Tuesday-Wednesday with temperatures rebounding again late
  in the week.

- Better chances for showers return over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, closed upper-level
low pressure sits near the Manitoba/Ontario border with attendant
sfc low pressure nearing Hudson Bay. Associated cold front draped to
the south across northern Ontario, the central U.P. into eastern WI.
This boundary will make slow eastward progress across northern MI
early this evening through tonight accompanied by decaying shower
chances.

In the wake of this system, upper-level heights build with upstream
sfc high pressure settling in across the upper MS Valley and
northern Great Lakes on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, low pressure
begins to show signs of materializing lee of the Rockies with a
developing warm front stretched from the Plains into the mid-MS
Valley. Increased isentropic ascent north of this boundary, despite
paltry moisture, may yield another low end shower chance Tuesday
night.

Forecast Details: As expected, showers really struggling with
eastward extent across northern MI so far today, with the primary
axis of any shower activity having been stuck upstream over parts of
northeast WI and central U.P. While shower chances do gradually
build farther east into parts of northern lower and eastern
upper through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, not
really appearing to be much hope for meaningful rain amounts.
Otherwise, winds turn northwesterly post fropa tonight with lows
largely in the 40s area-wide. Some low probabilities for at
least patchy fog once again, but highly dependent on overnight
cloud trends and the ability for winds to decouple after veering
out of the northwest.

Any Tuesday morning fog/stratus should again gradually burn off/mix
out with partly sunny skies anticipated by Tuesday afternoon. High
temps expected to be a good 10+ degrees cooler than today in many
areas -- largely spanning the 50s -- save for some low-mid 60s
creeping in near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Day 3-4 (Wednesday - Thursday):

High pressure largely in control through the midweek timeframe.
Plenty of sunshine anticipated Wednesday with highs in the 50s.
Chilly Wednesday night with growing probabilities for some of the
typically colder icebox locations to fall to near 20 F for a low
temp Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Winds turn out of the south Thursday with daytime highs rebounding a
handful of degrees. Increasing clouds to be the rule, especially late
in the day, in advance of another round of isentropically driven
precip that may cross the area Thursday night.

Day 5-7 (Friday - Sunday): By late in the week, low pressure is
expected to be situated near the Manitoba/Ontario border with
Thursday night`s warm front positioned well to the north. Temps
creep up another few degrees for Friday before another round of
showers and even a few rumbles of thunder becomes increasingly
likely Saturday as a cold front makes headway west to east across
the Great Lakes. Cooler again behind that boundary with potential
for lake effect/enhanced rain showers to wrap up the tail end of the
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR at all sites currently. Winds generally S/SE at 5 to 10 kts
with occasional gusts to 15kts at a few terminals. A weak FROPA
will continue to move through northern MI today, brining SCT-BKN
cigs of 4 to 7 kft and VCSH for terminals over eastern upper and
near the tip of the mitt (KCIU/KPLN). Winds will gradually turn
NE/N from 03 thru 10Z. Low chances for category reductions due
to SHRA. Skies will remain SCT-BKN as cigs around 10 kft or
above move in behind the FROPA. Low chances for BR/FG tonight,
however chances could grow if rain over performs this afternoon
and evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...ELD