500
FXUS63 KAPX 082333
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
733 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms tonight and mainly Tuesday with areas of heavy
  rain.

- Heat and humidity build into mid week with heat indices in the
  mid 90s Wednesday.

- Thunderstorms, some strong, possible later Wednesday/later
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Current satellite imagery shows a negatively tilted trough across
the Upper Mississippi Valley with high pressure extending northward
across the eastern Great Lakes. Consequently, tremendous moisture
flux/transport is ongoing across portions of the MS Valleys, poised
to move northward.

Aforementioned troughing will move north tonight into Tuesday,
directly overhead during peak heating. Dewpoints shoot up into the
mid to upper 60s through the daytime hours and with daytime high
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, this will foster 500-1500
j/kg of instability. Subsequently, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected later tonight but largely on
Tuesday. Pretty classic heavy, efficient rainfall environment
with PWs well above climo (mean for this date ~0.9", progged to
have ~1.8-1.9"), long skinny CAPE, warm cloud layers >10 kft
(closer to 12 kft), and wind through the column relatively light
(although not perfect in this regard). Consequently, with any
of the more robust convective precipitation, very high and
efficient rain rates are expected. While soils are overall
pretty dry most areas, localized flooding/flash flooding would
be possible with any training/stationary thunderstorms.
HREF/RRFS guidance does suggest the potential for areas of
1-2", with the LPPM/PPM showing localized 2"+ (which would be
plausible given the environment). The activity will likely
remain into the evening hours and linger to some degree into the
early overnight.

Brief short wave ridging moves overhead on Wednesday, with humidity
remaining quite high. Thus, temperatures soar into the upper 80s to
low 90s most areas with heat indices in the low to mid 90s. Worth
checking up on those who are sensitive to the heat or without
adequate cooling.

Heat and humidity across the Upper Midwest with an approaching
robust trough is a combo for organized thunderstorm activity
(currently where the Storm Prediction Center`s Enhanced (level 3 of
5) outlook is situated). This progression will be watched Wednesday
evening/night in regards to a severe threat for northern Michigan.
Although sfc instability wanes into the overnight hours, there is
still plenty of MUCAPE. We`ll have to see how the sfc boundary
interacts with the Lake and waning instability/forcing. There is
still a lot of uncertainty with this setup in regards to
convective evolution and spatial extent, but gusty winds would
be the primary concern with any storms/outflow.

Another hot day is expected on Thursday with highs in the 90s for
some. That being said, the main story will likely be another round
of potential thunderstorms during the evening/overnight hours, some
strong to severe possible. An even deeper wave on the southern
periphery of the main trough across Ontario will quickly rotate and
move northeast Thursday night with an associated cold front moving
west to east. Low level jet will ramp up Thursday night as well,
with the location and orientation still in question. This has the
potential to produce heavy rain somewhere in MI, unclear if
across northern MI, but something we will be monitoring in the
coming days. Not only that, we are currently outlooked in a
Slight (level 2 of 5) for severe storms during this time frame
as well.

Although the best moisture/instability/heat is evacuated this
weekend, the massive trough to the north across Ontario will
continue to sweep eastward with additional showers and storms
possible. Current probs are only near 30%, so confidence in
widespread precipitation is not too high, but there`s a chance for
more showers and storms. As the energy and eventual frontal boundary
work into MI, likely later this weekend, cooler temperatures are
expected (70s for most). Although there will be a few day period of
drier conditions, a trough is reintroduced across the Great Lakes
Region thereafter with the potential for additional precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR this evening with some high cloud north and increasing mid
to low cloud toward MBL and TVC. TSRA possible with temporary
reductions in flight categories possible this evening through
tonight at TVC and MBL. SHRA chances increase at the other TAF
sites around or just after daybreak Tuesday. Temporary
reductions in flight categories possible at these sites as well
in the event +RA or a rogue storm passes over the TAF site. SHRA
/ TSRA coverage to reduces in the afternoon, but lingering low
level moisture will produce plentiful BR and perhaps FG to close
out the forecast period... with largely MVFR to IFR conditions
possible, with potential for LIFR at the end of the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...HAD