663
FXUS63 KAPX 131033
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
633 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for showers/storms this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Wnw flow aloft will be temporarily displaced this weekend, as part
of the western ridge pushes east thru the region, though
deamplifying somewhat as it does so. This will turn the upper flow
more westerly for a bit, just ahead of a shortwave trof passing late
in the weekend. Then its back to wnw flow next week.

Mostly clear skies out there, though with patchy mid/high clouds
advancing from WI and western upper MI. Some fog/stratus also
popping up, especially in south where surface dew points remain
higher than elsewhere. Suppose there is a non-zero of the Lake Huron
lake breeze kicking off some showers for the ne lower MI coastal
counties. Some recent runs of the HRRR/RAP do this, but most
guidance does not. And some patchy fog returns late tonight. But
otherwise, high pressure passing north of Superior on Friday will
push drier air into the area. Dew points will lower into the 50s in
many areas on Friday, which should make convection more difficult,
even with a shortwave potentially digging across Lk Huron.

A zone of unsettled wx will remain in the southern lakes/northern OH
Valley for the couple of days. As the surface high heads downstream
Saturday, and low pressure evolves in the northern plains/southern
Canada, warmth and moisture will attempt to work north. A decent
chance for showers and storms should result for late Saturday into
Sunday. Surface cold front goes thru Sunday, and northerly flow and
cooler/drier air push in Sunday night thru Monday night. Wnw flow
aloft becomes a bit more energetic after that, with shower chances
resuming Tuesday. Temps area a little cooler, especially Sunday and
beyond, but overall pretty yummy late-summer stuff.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Only dealing with fog at MBL this morning, though it is
occasionally VLIFR there. Quick improvement this morning, and a
pleasant VFR day and evening otherwise, with light winds. MBL
likely to return to some fog late tonight, uncertain whether
anyone else will.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ