964
FXUS63 KAPX 281040
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
640 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temps return today, and persist thru the
  forecast.

- Very good shower chances late tonight into Thursday morning.
  A few t-storms possible late tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Broad return flow is currently underway in the Great Lakes,
between high pressure over New England, and an emerging cold
front in the central and northern plains. Warm/moist advection
is interacting with a couple of shortwaves transiting the region
early this morning. This has resulted in a baroclinic leaf
pattern over and east of MI, along with sporadic light showers,
especially in eastern upper MI. However, the back edge of this
cloud cover is beginning to advance east across northern Lake
MI.

Wsw flow aloft persists into late Thursday, before a passing
shortwave swings winds aloft to zonal and then wnw. The latter
also occurs as ridging in the northern US plains and Canadian
prairie builds by this weekend.

Leftover showers will depart, and cloud cover drastically
reduce, over the next several hours. Mainly sunny skies are
progged for northern lower MI after mid-morning, while the
eastern UP has a bit more cloud cover today. Warm advection and
at least partial sunshine will contribute to much warmer temps
today. If anything, guidance has trended slightly warmer today.
Highs today in northern lower MI range from the mid-upper 60s
along most coastlines, to near 70/lower 70s inland. The eastern
UP will see low-mid 60s. Borrowing from the previous forecaster:

Oct 28 High Temperature Records
Location | High Temp (Year)
     ANJ | 64 F (1924)
     PLN | 71 F (1955)
     GLR | 70 F (1955)
     APN | 75 F (1989)
     HTL | 73 F (1989)
     TVC | 80 F (1927)
We should threaten ANJ/PLN/GLR and perhaps HTL.

As shortwaves race east across southern Canada, low pressure will
consolidate and strengthen over northern Ontario tonight. An
associated cold front enters the eastern UP and far northern
lower MI late tonight, and the rest of northern MI Thursday.
Though the strongest forcing remains in Canada, heights do
gradually lower here beginning late tonight, and a (veering)
low level jet will support moisture transport northward in the
warm sector. Initial precip chances reach western Chip/Mack Cos,
and the nw lower MI coast, toward midnight tonight. Likely to
categorical pops arrive in nw and n central lower MI, and the
eastern UP, overnight. Precip should become somewhat diffuse by
the time we reach sunrise, as the low level jet veers parallel
to the incoming surface cold front. The nw half of the forecast
area has thunder possible (noting the entire forecast area is in
the most recent day 1 outlook from SPC).

Spotty showers remain possible Thu morning, but better moisture/
forcing/instability will be suppressed south as the day proceeds.
No precip after mid-afternoon, and a likely period of at least
partial sunshine, perhaps more than that in northern lower. This
will support continued mild temps, though not as warm as today
except near Saginaw Bay.

High pressure builds from the Canadian high prairie to the Great
Lakes, providing quiet wx to close the work week and even into
the weekend. For now, guidance is continuing to reduce pops this
weekend, as relatively meager return flow gets gobbled up by
persistent dry low-level air off of the high pressure, by then
to our east. Precip chances are now progged to ramp up after
Monday, as both northern and southern stream upper trofs advance
from the west. Above-normal temps thus seem likely to persist
well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR. Early morning showers will depart eastern upper MI shortly.
Clouds will decrease behind this, with mostly sunny skies today
in northern lower MI, partly cloudy in eastern upper. Clouds
increase again tonight, and showers and likely in the north and
west after midnight. Not impossible for a TSRA as well, though
this chance is small enough to not mention yet. Cigs will
thicken and lower as showers move in, but are expected to remain
VFR.

Southerly breezes increase today, and gustier yet tonight. LLWS
also develops tonight at all sites.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ