191
FXUS63 KAPX 222008
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly night tonight...record lows possible?

- Dry with low afternoon RHs Thursday

- Rain/storm chances at times this weekend into early next
week...could start as early as Thursday night/Friday? But more
likely Friday night and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Northwest flow remains intact across the Midwest...with negatively
tilted ridge axis from the PacNW into TX...and longwave trough axis
stretching from Hudson Bay to New England. 100+kt jet stretches from
southern Manitoba to the Mid-Atlantic...and then up along into Maine
on the downstream side of the trough axis. Atmosphere is quite
perturbed along/north of the jet axis, from the Canadian Prairie
Provinces down into the Great Lakes; notably, a swirly dropping
toward Lake Superior as of 12z and departing PV maxima over
Ontario/Quebec. Dry air settling into the Lower Great Lakes/OH
Valley attm with dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 40s
overnight last night; best absolute moisture (pwats greater than
1.5in) across the Gulf Coast up into New England along/ahead of the
aforementioned trough axis and attendant cold front stretching from
an occluded low over Quebec down along the Appalachian Mountains and
into the southern Plains. Much cooler air mass beneath the trough as
well...850mb temps as cold as 4C northeast of Georgian Bay, and 8C
isotherm stretching from MN to the Lower Great Lakes. Lows generally
bottoming out in the lower to middle 50s for a change last night,
though. Northwest flow pressure gradient remains somewhat tight
across the area, between aforementioned 993mb occluded low over
Quebec and 1021mb surface high over the Upper Midwest/Northern
Plains. A little smoke well aloft drifting overhead, as evidenced by
visible satellite this morning, though not nearly as thick or
impactful as previous days.

High pressure will continue to build in into tonight; expect a cool
and quiet night as winds diminish. Upper level pattern flattens out
upstream Thursday, with a bit more influence of return flow to come
into play here, and temps warming back up to more seasonable levels.
May need to watch out for some warm advection activity Thursday
night into Friday as a surface low tries to take shape across
central Canada. Another lobe of energy sweeps through on
Saturday...with ridging building over the western US ahead of
troughing digging off British Columbia. Expecting height rises to
spread eastward overall Sunday into Monday, with broad ridge axis
centered to our west...but do have concerns for activity to form
along the perimeter of the ridge at times. Increasing uncertainty in
the forecast for Tuesday and beyond...depending on the
strength/position of PV maxima tracking over the ridge axis...as
well as position/strength of upper troughing progged to hang out
over eastern Canada/northeastern US going into midweek, which will
play a role in temperatures for next week.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Lows tonight... Dewpoints this afternoon are already drying out
quite a bit, generally into the lower 40s by 17z (with a couple
spots diving down to 39F or lower (looking at you, APN,
PZQ))...which is perhaps a bit more aggressive than guidance had
suggested, and lends a concern for lows tonight. (Think this will
also lend to a drier/less humid day on Thursday as well, and have
gone much more aggressive with drying out dewpoints then, too.) Have
thusly gone more aggressive with cooling temps tonight, given a good
radiational cooling setup overall, with lows generally in the lower
40s across the interior and warmer at the coasts; the typical
interior cold spots (e.g., AuSable River valley) should drop close
to 40, and would not be surprised to see a few sites come in with
upper 30s tonight in those locales. The trick right now is how much
lingering low-level moisture from recent rains will impact the lows
tonight...and think the best chance of staying warmer (perhaps with
some patchy fog?) will be NW Lower and the Leelanau Peninsula where
they did have a couple inches of rain the other night (think this is
part of what is driving slightly better diurnal cu coverage today
over the western half of the Mitten). Not impossible some record low
temperatures could be in jeopardy tonight...with most record lows
this time of the year in the lower 40s (except for our coldest
locales). Records at our primary historical weather sites are as
follows:

Record Low vs. current forecast....
Gaylord:          42 (1981) vs 41
Sault Ste. Marie: 39 (1981) vs 45
Houghton Lake:    35 (1947) vs 46
Traverse City:    42 (1985) vs 51
Alpena:           41 (1923) vs 45
Pellston:         35 (1985) vs 46

RHS Thursday...Expect antecedent low-level dry air mass to stick around,
despite some increase in moisture with return flow across the Yoop
Thursday...and with temperatures likely warming well into the 70s vs
today`s chilly day...think we will end up with some areas of near-
critical to critical minimum RHs Thursday afternoon (25 percent or
lower). Best shot of this is again northeast lower with prevailing
westerly flow, where things are more likely to warm/dry a little
more bullishly with downsloping. Don`t think winds will be quite as
much of a concern Thursday but could gust up around 15-25kts up
around the Tip of the Mitt. Have some concerns we could remain on
the drier side going into Friday as well, especially if the better
moisture remains to our north...but not as confident in how this
will play out.

Precip chances thru the period... Low chance for some activity,
especially across the EUP Thursday afternoon with the lake breeze
and some return flow in play. Think we may need to keep an eye on
warm advection precip that may/may not develop upstream on the nose
of warmer air sneaking in...and could end up with some lingering
showers/storms(?) into the day on Friday, which could lower
temperatures more than expected. On the flipside...antecedent dry
air mass in place will have something to say about precip chances,
which could certainly minimize any activity that does try to move in
here. More robust chance for showers/storms will come Friday night
into Saturday ahead of a PV max digging down from central Canada.
Think there is potential Friday night for any activity across
Ontario to either scrape our northern zones...or perhaps try to drop
in on us if a convective complex is able to develop. Signals
currently point toward the shortwave trough becoming negatively
tilted to our north, which does hint at potential for more robust
convection to develop up there. Appears the boundary associated with
this system will wash out as it drapes into the Upper Great Lakes
Saturday (current focus is across the Yoop/Tip of the Mitt), but
will need to keep an eye out for convection to continue/redevelop
during the day (again, especially north, per current signals)...and
could linger into Saturday night.

Think we could remain quite active from Sunday night right on into
the first part of the week. Primary concern in my mind is the broad
ridge axis to our west/northwest, setting up the potential for
convective complexes to ride the perimeter of the ridge over toward
the Great Lakes through the period. Quite a bit of uncertainty attm
in the evolution of this (including strength of any perturbations
tracking along the ridge axis into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes),
and lend to uncertainty in how the pattern evolves going into the
mid and latter portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR. Breezy northwest winds, at times pushing 30kts, continue
through the afternoon, tapering in the evening. As far as cloud
cover, a scattered fair weather cumulus deck carries through the
afternoon, diminishing this evening. Anticipating some fair
weather cumulus to develop Thursday afternoon, with lighter west
to west-southwest winds building.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ016>018-020-021-024-098-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-
     342.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...HAD