892
FXUS63 KAPX 312145
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
545 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few showers tonight, mild Sunday.

- Milder still early to mid next week with increasing rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

On the leading edge of brief height rises tonight, warm advection
and modest moisture transport will support some showers. Generally
of the light variety, with accums <0.10" most if not all locations.
Heading into Sunday, short wave within the upper flow generally
passes through and to the south of northern MI, with little in the
way of moisture to work with during the day. Temps rise a few
degrees on Sunday in response to the southwest flow as sfc high
pressure centers around NJ with low pressure system taking shape
across the Intermountain West.

Early next week, the trough associated with the recent floods across
the Southwest will continue to move eastward with time, with a fast
moving upper low and associated jet stream ejecting on the eastern
side of the trough. This feature will move up into the N/C
Plains and Upper Midwest. This lead piece of energy will induce
a sfc low pressure system tracking into the Plains and eventually
Midwest/Upper Midwest regions. Consequently, anomalous column
moisture will advect into northern MI during that Monday through
Wednesday time frame, with the potential for wetting rains.
Current trough, sfc low, and moisture trajectory point towards
the healthiest rains across Upper Michigan with the lead warm
and moist advection later Monday and Monday night, which would
include the eastern UP. Potential exists for a break in the
action before another round wetting rains possible along the
cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday-ish. The timing and
details of this will change some with time. Taking a look at
the Total QPF 50th percentile from all the major ensembles
(GEPS, GEFS, and EPS, thrown in the GEFS AI and AIFS as well)
suggests the potential for ~0.25 to 0.75" across northern
lower, and ~0.50 to 1.0" for eastern upper. This will be
dependent on how the upper level features and subsequent sfc
features interact and ultimately migrate. Temperatures prior to
the eventual cold frontal passage will be in the 60s most areas,
likely into Wednesday.

Energy in some capacity tries to migrate/linger across the Ohio
Valley/MS Valley late week, although varying within each
deterministic model solution. Thus, showery activity may linger
late week as hinted by ensembles. The messiness of the upper
level features makes this portion of the forecast quite fuzzy
and low confidence, but at least some showers may remain late
week. Looks slightly cooler as well, but still above normal for
the first week of November.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR conditions expected tonight under some thickening mid level
overcast. May see a few light showers/sprinkles fall out of this
mid cloud, but nothing impactful expected. Latest trends support
the development of an MVFR producing low cloud deck at KCIU
Sunday morning, with these clouds perhaps persisting through
much of the day. Looking at VFR conditions elsewhere under
decreasing clouds. Light winds will continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MSB