525
FXUS63 KAPX 200715
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
315 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Patchy fog and lingering drizzle continue this morning.

-High pressure will support quiet and dry weather this week.

-Seasonably normal fall-like temperatures build this week with
 overnight lows creating frost/freeze concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Pattern Synopsis: The current weak midlevel troughing regime
continues to break down this morning as an upstream split flow
pattern begins to build across most of the CONUS. As a result, a
broad ridging pattern occupies the northern U.S., while low
amplitude troughing keeps warm low-level temperatures south of the
CWA. At the surface, high pressure begins to break down overnight,
delivering light rainfall and patchy morning fog, resulting in
beautiful fall weather this afternoon through the remainder of the
week. High temperatures remain around normal for mid to late
September, with most days expected to be in the 60s but cool
overnight lows will fall into the 40s and upper 30s.

Forecast Details: Conditions remain mostly cloudy today as surface
low pressure remains positioned over central Indiana. Showers are
mostly expected to remain south of the CWA, but southernmost
counties could observe an additional trace of rainfall accompanied
by some patchy morning fog.  Post-frontal pressure gradient force
winds will clear out low-level moisture and build breezy northeast
winds today. High pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes
region this Monday through the remainder of the week. This pattern
will support quiet and dry conditions through the next several days.
H8 temperatures in the single digits will keep daytime highs in the
60s. Only concerning weather to monitor will be sufficient overnight
radiational cooling causing overnight lows to drop into the low 40s
and upper 30s. Coldest night be Monday night where interior
areas/elevated terrain will likely observe lows near freezing,
potentially leading to frost. No precipitation potential is expected
through the entirety of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Light showers will continue to track from west to east across the
lower peninsula tonight, ending by Sunday morning. Associated
IFR/low MVFR CIGs are also expected to persist across areas closer
to mid Michigan -- particularly MBL and TVC -- and eventually lift
Sunday morning/early afternoon, returning all areas to VFR through
the remainder of the issuance period. Light/calm winds tonight will
increase out of the northeast Sunday morning to around 10 kts with
gusts to 15-20 kts at times during the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for LHZ346-347.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...DJC