496
FXUS63 KAPX 151736
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1236 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Quick-moving system zips through today, bringing the next rain
 chances. Anomalous warmth prevails for one last day.

-Cooler with renewed lake effect snow chances Sunday and into Monday
 before we trend seasonable and less active through midweek.

-Potential for active weather to return at the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 208 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging regime overhead in the process of breaking down at this hour
as a stout, albeit moisture starved wave zips into the Great Lakes
region from the west through a zonal flow regime. Warm front lifting
NE out of Wisconsin expected to struggle to make it much past the
southern row of counties in the APX CWA... resulting in a bit of a
split picture in the temperature department. Ample WAA well underway
aloft, leading to a stable layer in the low levels north of the warm
front. Result will be a brief window of low level saturation across
much of the region courtesy of marine layer advection via ESE flow.
Eventually, the cold / occluded frontal boundary associated with the
system surges through later this afternoon, bringing a brief window
of shower potential before colder air begins to surge in.

Winds shifting NW later in the day will knock down temperatures
later in the afternoon as a seasonably chilly airmass intrudes by
the end of the forecast period... with 850mb temps plummeting from
their peak of 7 to 12 Celsius this morning... falling to -7 to -10
Celsius by Saturday morning... supplying plenty of overlake
instability to generate lake effect rain and eventually snow as we
head into Sunday.

Forecast Details:

Drizzle to Rain Showers to Lake Effect Snow: Anticipating an
unimpressive rainfall output from this system as it will be moisture
starved... lots of dry air aloft will hamper any efficient rainfall
rates, and transient motion of showers, along with the narrow window
along the front... will hinder total rainfall. Nonetheless...
anticipating some patchy fog / drizzle through the morning as the
stable layer north of the front holds strong in the low levels, with
WAA continuing aloft. The approach of the front will lead to a
narrow window of weak instability to materialize in the late morning
/ afternoon... so a 2-3 hour period of showers is expected at any
given location as this little area of showers along the cold /
occluded front progresses from west to east. Where the warm front
manages to lift past will see a bit of a differing airmass than
others... so possible to see highs anywhere from 57 to 62 along and
south of M-55. North to the bridge... probably anywhere from 50 to
56, and in the eastern Yoop, probably 47 to 51.

Lake induced precipitation set to quickly build amid the colder air
aloft generating overlake instability. Precipitation probably starts
as a mix of rain and snow, transitioning to all snow across the
interiors of both northern lower and eastern upper as temps tumble
into the lower 30s. Dominant banding anticipated to impact more
traditional snowbelt locales of eastern upper and northwest lower.
NW flow lake effect to carry through Sunday, bringing continued lake
effect snow squalls to the region. Quick drops in visibility
possible, with travel impacts possible owing to reduced visibility
from any blowing snow across eastern upper, where 2 to 4 inches
(locally 6"+) of snowfall will be possible Sunday into Monday.

Lesser snows anticipated across the NW lower snowbelts owing to
marginal temps and less impressive moisture profiles... generally an
inch or two (locally up to 4") in the snowbelts (targeting the four
corners of Antrim, Otsego, Kalkaska, and Crawford counties... though
strong flow could easily carry this into northern Roscommon). This
will probably be the most problematic area for travel impacts in
northern lower, as gusty winds and rapid drops in visibility could
certainly lead to quickly changing conditions on area thoroughfares,
including I-75. Still potential for that Presque Isle / northern
Alpena corridor to see some action too... with the majority of
activity in those areas being confined to the lakeshores.
Accumulations are possible here... though there is still potential
for this snowfall to wind up as fish food if that band hovers over
the lake instead of drifting inland. At the end of the day... it`ll
be the difference between no snowfall and maybe 1 to 3 inches... so
not overly impactful in the grand scheme of things (again, probably
more an issue from low visibility), but still could lead to some
minor travel impacts.

Today / Sunday Winds: Once the cold / occluded front passes this
afternoon into the evening, winds flip NW, and will turn quite gusty
as cold air advection commences. Efficient momentum transfer in the
immediate wake of the front may allow for some locally stronger
gusts to mix to the surface... perhaps in the order of 35 to 40 mph
(especially across eastern upper). As stated by previous forecaster,
generally deepening surface low with parallel isallobaric flow will
lead to this enhancement during the frontal passage. Flow is
anticipated to remain elevated overnight as cold air advection
remains in overdrive... though perhaps a bit of a "reprieve" from
the afternoon peak. Still possible to see 30+ mph gusts tonight,
especially in the interior terrain and the lakeshores. Cold air
advection will be in full swing again Sunday... with gusty NW winds
bringing quite the bite to the airmass over the region. Sustained
winds of 15 to 25 mph, gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph (highest along
the lakeshores) will prevail through the day, slackening
considerably (but still a touch breezy) Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 208 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Trending a bit less active heading into midweek as surface high
pressure puts the kibosh to the lake effect activity through Monday.
Chilly highs in the 30s still anticipated Monday, but with gradually
drier and increasingly sunny skies. Temperatures moderate through
the remainder of the forecast period as ridging tries to build back
into the region. Highs well into the 40s likely by the end of the
period. Minimal sensible weather anticipated Tuesday and
Wednesday... though there is a bit of uncertainty regarding how the
forecast period closes out. Classic La Nina regime in place, with a
split Pacific flow allowing for waves to intrude into the southern
Plains and ride a southern stream jet into the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes. Guidance is hinting at a system or two Thursday into the
weekend, which could bring the next chances for rainfall (temps
above normal by the period`s end) to the region... with the latest
CPC 6-10 day outlook highlighting above normal precipitation favored
across this corridor (southern Plains into the Great Lakes)...
perhaps dropping the breadcrumbs to an active end to next week`s
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Mix of IFR/MVFR CIGs will persist for the next few hours, especially
across northeast lower and eastern upper Michigan. Conditions are
expected to rapidly improve from west to east this evening as the
front slides through, bringing a return to VFR conditions across
northern Michigan. There is potential for MVFR CIGs to return to
parts of northwest lower and eastern upper late tonight and Sunday
morning as lake effect snow showers develop. Primary concern with
this activity will be significant drops in visibility due to
combination of falling snow and strong northwest winds that will
gust to 25-35 kts at times. CIU and PLN will have the best chances
to experience IFR/LIFR VSBYs for brief periods during the issuance
period, but overall worst impacts are expected away from northern
Michigan TAF sites at this time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Sunday for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ345-346.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...DJC