655
FXUS63 KAPX 201733
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1233 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and breezy today

- Occasional shots at rain/snow chances through the remainder of the
week/early weekend

- Watching potential for colder and more unsettled weather for
mid to late week next week somewhere over the central/eastern US...

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Broad ridge across the southeastern US...with a shortwave axis
poking up into western Ontario ahead of a shortwave trough digging
into the central Canadian Prairies....with attendant cold front
draped from central Canada down into the northern Plains. Some
decent moisture ahead of this shortwave across the Upper MS
Valley...though most of the moisture is across the southern
US....but a little bit of warm advection trying to sneak into the
Upper Midwest attm ahead of this...with an area of precip along the
nose of this over western Ontario/northern Lake Superior. Mid-level
dry air holding firm over northern MI attm as we remain under the
influence of 1026mb surface high over eastern Ontario. To our
south...stationary boundary stretches from TX to TN, with a handful
of subtle PV maxima slipping across the central CONUS into southern
MI on the north side of a 100kt upper jet.

Expect upstream shortwave trough to dig into the Upper Midwest this
morning...crossing our area through the day...with strengthening
southwesterly winds expected today. Warm/moist advection ahead of
the system to bring some precipitation into the region as early as
12-15z...with the primary focus across the eastern UP and Tip of the
Mitt regions today, closer to better forcing and better saturation
through the column. Frontal boundary associated with the
aforementioned shortwave trough will cross the area late this
evening into the overnight, with a shift to westerly winds behind.
Expect some drying aloft tonight as upper jet strengthens to our
south, leaving us favored for subsidence as a bit of ridging sneaks
in...as upper troughing digs across central Canada yet again.

Primary Forecast Concerns through tonight:

Precip chances/types today...With warm air moving in...expecting
bulk of (if not all) precipitation to be in the form of rain
today, likely even into tonight...as it may not get cold enough
to do anything different till later tonight/closer to Friday
morning. If anything were to mix with the rain today, it would
be across the eastern UP and perhaps Tip of the Mitt/interior
higher terrain, where some small chance of SW-flow lake
influences could lead to a bit of seeder-feeder action this
morning...though think a better chance of mixiness would be late
tonight/Friday morning as we cool.

SW flow lake enhancement areas have the best shot at seeing over a
tenth of an inch of liquid today (around 50 percent). Noting
shortwave crossing southern Ontario/Lake Superior this evening in
the presence of pwats around the 90th percentile for mid/late
November...not totally impossible there could be some better
rainfall totals across more of the eastern UP. However...currently
think the best forcing with the shortwave will remain shunted
north...which should keep the threat of higher QPF well north.

Breezy today...southwesterly pressure gradient strengthens ahead of
the system, supportive of sustained winds generally 5-10kts or so.
Potential to mix down some 20-25kt gusts today...though with the
warm advection expected...do have to wonder if the stronger winds
aloft will struggle to mix down more than expected, particularly
away from the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Days 2-3 (Friday-Saturday)...

Shortwave to our north tries to close off Friday...with an
additional bit of energy swinging by to our north Friday night into
Saturday...leading to a cooldown compared to today. Does look like a
niblet of energy in the southern stream approaches the OH Valley by
then...but for now...appears this will remain to our south, as we
should remain more under the influence of drier, northwesterly flow
aloft.

Expect some WNW/NW flow lake effect rain/snow showers Friday. Some
guidance has signals for a nice band across the EUP Friday
afternoon/evening, which may need to be monitored going
forward...though overall, high pressure building in suggests that
things should remain quiet outside of those localized lake effect
areas (as mentioned above). Next shot of precip for our area will be
later Saturday into Sunday as another niblet of energy crosses
southern Canada...though this, too, may come through with enough dry
air present to preclude most activity. This one should have enough
cold air to allow for snow or a mix at onset...but it should warm
with time going into Sunday.

Days 4-7 (Sunday-Wednesday)...

Upper low over SoCal attm will eject eastward through the flow this
weekend into early next week...with ridging crossing the northern
Plains in the northern stream, driven by strong punch of energy from
the Pacific. Broadly...expect southerly flow and somewhat mild
weather for the early part of the week...with an increasingly active
pattern across some portion of the Midwest in particular for
midweek.

Attm...some uncertainty in how the initial energy crossing the
central Plains interacts with the incoming Pacific energy...with the
most uncertainty in how deeply the troughing digs into the central
US/MS Valley. If upper low ends up closing off over Upper MS
Valley...would expect a more wound up system to more slowly meander
its way across the Upper Midwest, which could result in stronger
flow (and a better-defined lake effect pattern for the Upper Great
Lakes) through at least the first part of the Thanksgiving weekend.
Alternatively, the more progressive solution keeps the core of the
upper low less deep and to our north, with just a strong lobe
swinging through the Midwest...suggesting a quicker passage of the
initial cold front going into midweek...and perhaps a quicker route
to quieter weather. Either way...signals point toward a colder,
active pattern across the central/eastern US during one of the
busiest travel periods of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

MVFR and IFR CIG`s with periods of LIFR will continue to expand
across the region this afternoon/evening with isolated
-SHRA and VSCH through Friday night. Flight conditions will
 slowly improve back to VFR categories midday Friday and beyond
 the forecast period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ345-
     346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...SJC