023
FXUS63 KAPX 131957
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
257 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Surface high pressure builds today, resulting in dry and overall
quiet weather.

-Clipper system tracks across the midwest this weekend. Rain and
snow showers to the Great Lakes region.

-High pressure continues relatively quiet weather with low
 chances of precip at times next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Current midlevel troughing pattern centered over
Quebec will continue to lift towards the northeast. As a result,
midlevel heights begin to rise over the Great Lakes region returning
surface high pressure and subsequent overall quiet weather through
the entirety of the short term period.

Forecast Details...

Tonight...Current visible satellite imagery depicts cloud cover
slowly clearing to the northeast which reflects the previously
mentioned trough being replaced by an upstream shortwave ridge.
Overhead subsidence will continue trends of quiet and dry weather
tonight as a more stable airmass decouples winds and continues
relatively clear cloud cover over northern lower (other than some
high level cirrus). With overnight lows rapidly cooling and dewpoint
depressions shrinking, patchy fog will be the only main concern for
the short term forecast. Model soundings do not depict a clear
saturation profile at the surface and probabilistic hi-rez guidance
keeps fog potential around low to medium chances for parts of
northern lower (30-60%). Otherwise overnight lows are expected to
drop to the mid 20s for interior northern lower while areas closer
to the shorelines and eastern upper remain around 30.

Friday...Surface high pressure will continue to keep conditions
quiet and dry as the midlevel ridge centers its axis over western
Lake Superior Friday. Mostly sunny skies are expected along with
climatologically warm temperatures for mid November. Highest
temperatures will favor the southwest parts of the CWA that line up
with warmest H8 temperatures advecting into the northwoods. Expect
highs in the mid 40s for northeast parts of northern lower and
eastern upper while areas near and south of Grand Traverse bay reach
the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Saturday and Sunday...Weather turns active this weekend as guidance
depicts a midlevel wave developing closed low pressure over northern
Alberta and progress to Manitoba by Saturday. Chances of
precipitation return to Great Lakes region Saturday afternoon as
warm advection keeps precipitation mainly as rainfall for the first
half followed by sub-freezing low level atmospheric temperatures
turning rainfall to snow Saturday night. With and deep atmospheric
moisture remaining cutoff, along with the highest probs of QPF north
of the CWA, conditions remain relatively unimpactful between light
rainfall and temperatures only falling to the low 30s Sunday morning
(leaving out any risk of flash freeze). Highest probabilities of QPF
for the CWA will remain over eastern upper with only low-med probs
(30-50%) of a quarter inch or more while northern lower will likely
observe roughly a tenth or less this weekend.

Monday and Tuesday...Midlevel heights begin to rise this Monday as
upstream ridging builds over the pacific northwest and makes its way
to the central U.S on Monday. This pattern supports high pressure
and overall drying trends as we head towards the midweek. Low level
temperatures slowly climb, leading to mild surface temperatures
around climatological norms for mid November. Expect widespread
highs in 40s for central northern lower and eastern upper while the
typically warmer locations near the shorelines reach the low 40s.

Wednesday and Thursday Outlook... Previously mentioned ridging
pattern will continue to progress eastward shifting its axis over
the Great Lakes region by midweek next week. Widespread highs remain
in the upper 40s to low 50s. Long range ensembles continue high
pressure and overall quiet weather but low probabilities of precip is
hinted at by guidance as potential embedded atmospheric wave
potentially tracks through the region around the Wednesday
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected across most of northern Michigan through
the issuance period. The exception may be CIU where low lake effect
cloud cover will hang around into Friday, but CIGs are anticipated
to stay above 3kft. Mostly sunny/clear skies are expected for the
remainder of the day south of the bridge. West winds between 7-12
kts with gusts to around 25 kts will continue for the next several
hours before weakening this evening and tonight. Light south-
southeast winds around 5 kts are expected to be in place on Friday.
Patchy BR/FG is possible across interior areas later tonight with
efficient radiational cooling -- especially northern lower away from
denser cloud cover. Explicit categorical VSBY drops have not been
included at this time due to relatively low confidence in impacts
directly at TAF sites.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC