079
FXUS63 KAPX 121732
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1232 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake induced/enhanced showers with breezy winds today.

- Drying/warming trend late this week.

- Renewed precipitation chances this weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 251 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Lake induced/enhanced showers continue early this morning as
west- northwesterly flow prevails under broad upper-level
troughing. Some of the steadier/heavier showers early this
morning could fall as snow, primarily across the higher terrain,
with minor accumulations possible, but a transition to largely
rain showers area-wide will be the case today as temperatures
rise into the upper 30s and low 40s by the afternoon. Activity
will begin to wind down overnight as the main moisture axis
shifts east and low-level flow begins to weaken with most areas
trending drier. Overnight lows tonight will dip into the upper
20s to low 30s, allowing for a transition to a rain/snow mix, or
perhaps all snow, for higher terrain areas with mostly rain
prevailing elsewhere... some patchy refreezing in colder
interior locations where surfaces remain wet could make for some
slick roads tonight/ Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

A much quieter stretch of weather is on tap to wrap up the
workweek as mid and upper-level ridging builds into the Great
Lakes. Surface high pressure will be the dominate player for
sensible weather, bringing Thursday and Friday dry condtions and
and a noticeable warming trend. Any lingering showers early
Thursday across eastern Upper should tapper largely by the
afternoon as substance increases and drier air moves in. Daytime
high temperatures Thursday and Friday look to largely be in the
40s, with low 50s possible for southern locations.

A system dropping from southern Canada looks to send a cold
front towards the region Saturday into Sunday, bringing the next
round of rain showers. Uncertainty remains in potential
precipitation timing and coverage, but guidance continues to
suggest renewed rain chances Saturday afternoon through Saturday
night. However, Sunday looks to likely provide a better push of
cooler air into the region, with higher probabilities for lake
induced rain/snow showers to return late in the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Expect conditions to remain MVFR across the Eastern UP and Tip of
the Mitt with showers drifting in and out of TAF sites (mostly rain
but could mix with a little snow late afternoon/tonight),
particularly CIU, PLN, and maybe APN. Should lean more VFR for TVC
and MBL with occasional MVFR cigs. Same idea continues into
tonight/Wed AM with decreasing clouds at MBL, TVC expected toward
morning. Brisk WNW to NW winds 10-15kts, gusting 25-30kts, even into
tonight/Wed AM. WNW 30-35kt winds around 2kft but think these will
get pulled to the surface as gusts...but if winds go lighter than
expected overnight, this could become a wind shear problem, esp
at TVC.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...FEF