265
FXUS63 KAPX 020828
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
328 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasingly windy, with gale force winds expected on the
  Great Lakes late this afternoon through Monday.

- Showery weather continues into Monday, with active periods
  expected again later this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

160kt upper jet punching into the PacNW/British Columbia dragging
moisture into western Canada and the Northern Plains...though
moisture is struggling to make headway eastward per warming cloud
tops on satellite imagery. Bit of PV trekking across central Canada
attm with warm advection into the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Ontario...knocking on our doorstep early this November morning.
Shortwave ridge over Ontario to our north only slowly overtaking
deformation axis/subtle troughing that has been stuck over Michigan
the last 24-ish hours...as upper low slowly meanders eastward along
the OH River...keeping some moisture present in the region. Quite
cold across the Midwest/eastern Canada...with 850mb temps as cold as
-8C to our northeast...in the wake of upper low now off the east
coast.

Ridging to our northwest should continue to slowly erode
aforementioned deformation axis (though I do wonder if it will end
up taking longer than guidance suggests...as it seems like it may be
a little more stuck than last night`s guidance suggested)...with
this latter feature ever so slowly drifting southward into southern
Michigan today...with a few lingering showers possible here and
there. Upstream PV maximum approaches the region this
evening/tonight...leading to height falls and development of
additional rain showers overnight...as winds crank up with this
dynamic system passing by to our north. Winds shift from SW to W and
eventually NW behind the front Monday, remaining quite blustery and
seasonable to start the first work week of November.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Monday:

Winds tonight through Monday...Gales still expected on the lakes,
particularly Lake MI tonight, hanging on across Whitefish Bay and
parts of northern Lake Huron into Monday/Monday night with the
strong gradients in place. Pressure gradient looks to tighten as
early as mid-afternoon, from NW to SE through the night. Appears
there are still a couple camps in guidance...with the more
progressive solution likely leading to a slightly lesser pressure
gradient (though still supportive of sustained winds 10-20kts).
Guidance that is a little more aggressive in digging the shortwave
into the region tonight would result in a stronger pressure gradient
and potential for sustained winds of 25-30kts across the northern
half of the area (EUP in particular)...though for now, this latter
idea is not being picked up by probabilistic guidance.

Strong LLJ (30-40kts at 925mb, 40-50kts at 850mb) with this system,
both ahead of and behind the trough axis, is the main concern for
gales, as the marine layer over the lakes should allow for downward
momentum transfer of these stronger winds, both in the warm
advection regime Sunday night, and in the cold advection regime
Monday morning. Primary timeframe of concern on Sunday evening is
particularly 2-5z, where probabilistic guidance still hits on 50-80
percent chance of gusts of at least 34kts...though it could remain
gusty all night despite a subtle decrease in winds with the trough
axis toward daybreak. Signals in probabilistic guidance are weaker
with the fropa/cold advection regime Monday morning...though it
appears this may be the primary time of concern for areas like the
Soo and Alpena. WNW-ly 140+kt upper jet punching into the region
could support gravity waves, which could further enhance the idea of
downward momentum transfer...though hard to say attm how much of an
influence these would have.

While primary concern for gusts in excess of 34kts/39mph is over the
Big Waters...think we will need to keep an eye on the lakeshore
counties (particularly Lake Michigan lakeshore counties) for the
potential for a wind advisory this evening into the overnight hours.
Not a slam dunk by any means...as it will depend on how far inland
the marine layer is able to bleed...though guidance soundings do
suggest that we should be rather unstable above the first few
hundred feet AGL...and wouldn`t be impossible to mix down some of
those stronger gusts. Additionally, even sustained winds around
26kts/30mph aren`t out of the question for these coastal
counties...though attm, lack of signals for stronger winds in
probabilistic guidance has me hesitant to pull the trigger on a wind
advisory on this shift.

Showers/rain showers (thunder?) Tonight/Monday...Shower activity may
wane for a time this morning...but will expect an uptick in SW flow
activity this afternoon ahead of the approaching system. Warm
advection regime in place suggests this should be all rain.
Increasing moisture and forcing ahead of the system this evening
should lead to an outbreak of widespread shower activity,
particularly across the Yoop, with lesser confidence further south,
given some dry air in the low levels that will need to be
overcome...which may take most of the night to accomplish. However,
with left exit region of strong upper jet in the vicinity...think we
will still see some showers out of the mid-cloud deck overnight.
Looks like a strong dry slot will punch in late tonight as well,
increasing the potential for convective instability with some of
this activity..and some guidance soundings have a hundred or so
joules of CAPE, particularly through about 600mb...perhaps enough to
generate some small hail and perhaps charge separation for
lightning? We shall see...but some of this activity could certainly
be vigorous. Noting that most of this CAPE will be in the lower
levels, do have to wonder if we will end up with a few waterspouts
tonight/Monday, though winds aloft could be too strong to allow
these to form. With the exception of a bit of wrap around moisture
across the EUP through the morning/midday...and perhaps a bit of
W/WNW flow lake activity in the Tip of the Mitt region...appears we
try to dry out rather aggressively in the wake of this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Ridging to build into the region rather quickly Monday night in the
wake of the early week system...leading to a quiet period to start
the long term...though high pressure center attm appears to remain
to our south Tuesday...trekking eastward going into midweek as an
area of lee-side pressure falls across the central/high Plains tries
to eject eastward toward the MS Valley...as ridging builds across
the western US. Shortwave trough axis looks to dive south from
Canada during this time as well...which could aid further
development of the surface low as it crosses the Midwest, as denoted
by some of the more aggressive solutions. It is also just as
possible that this ends up as a weak/dying front in our area, if the
northern stream ends up more progressive. Either way, with return
flow across the MS Valley...do expect a period of milder weather as
well as the potential for a little warm advection activity in the
Midwest. High pressure then looks to prevail for midweek...before
another system crosses the northern CONUS, approaching the Great
Lakes region for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Early-morning fog already seen at CIU, and periods of IFR
vsbys are still expected there. Otherwise mainly VFR, through
and eventually mid clouds will increase ahead of our next
system. Showers may be possible at CIU by late Sunday evening,
though initially from a VFR cloud deck.

Sw winds become gusty this afternoon and especially tonight.
LLWS possible tonight, especially CIU.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for
     LHZ345-346.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for
     LHZ347>349.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ