999
FXUS63 KAPX 151041
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
641 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer, with potential for periodic showers and storms
  starting late tonight, lasting through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Longwave ridge over the central continent...but embedded sharper
shortwave ridge exists over the Mid MS Valley...between departing
upper troughing in the Ohio Valley...and a punch of PV in the
central Plains. Southwest flow over the western US...very dry and
very warm out there attm with subtropical ridge over the desert SW.
Niblets of PV continue to crest the ridge in central Canada...one of
note in Saskatchewan, heading east attm. Bulk of the moisture is
trapped across the eastern US, especially south/east of the MS
Valley and south of the Ohio Valley system. A little bit of moisture
continues to linger across northern Michigan as we remain near a
weak mid-level boundary/confluence zone aloft...though some
improvements noted, as we ended up a bit warmer yesterday than the
day before.

After another niblet of energy slips by to our north this
morning...will look for ridging to build into the Upper Great Lakes.
Along with this...expect surface high pressure to slip back
overhead...leading to a quieter day for northern Michigan. This will
also ramp up return flow upstream across the MS Valley;
attm...appears the bulk of the warm advection and resultant boundary
should remain to our north/west to start the work week, though we
may not be entirely quiet if upstream activity is able to slip in
Monday morning. Energy crossing the central continent later Monday
into Tuesday will allow the boundary to slowly slip southward into
our region...further enhancing a threat for showers and storms as
the atmosphere becomes more unstable with time early this week.
Still looking for boundary to stall across the region somewhere
Wednesday, which remains a concern for additional rounds of rain to
trek through...though a lot of uncertainty is still in play with
this. Looking ahead to late week...signals starting to look a little
better for the idea of a strong trough digging into the western
US...which would result in strengthening southwesterly flow into the
eastern US/Midwest going into next weekend...potentially keeping
things active (and warm) for a while longer.

Short Term Primary Forecast Concerns:

Potential for showers/storms late tonight...Setup still remains
favorable for elevated convection to develop upstream late tonight
into Monday morning. Think the best activity will remain well to our
west across the Upper MS Valley...but do have concerns about
activity developing over the western UP/WI as return flow increases
tonight...as it could ride the thickness gradient into the western
fringes of our CWA. However...think dry air will slip back into
northern Lower a bit tonight, which should keep things to a minimum
across much of our area...save for the EUP, which will be closer to
the better moisture advection and forcing to begin with.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Long Term Primary Forecast Concerns:

Periodic showers and storms through midweek... Monday...as mentioned
above, will need to keep an eye on what occurs upstream,
particularly if anything develops over the western UP/WI
tonight...as it could track into NW Lower Monday morning, though
admittedly, flow isn`t very strong...so it may not be able to move
very quickly at all...lending credence to the idea of a heavy rain
threat. If this idea comes to fruition, could be looking at a cooler
start to the day Monday, which has potential to put a damper on
highs and potential for instability later in the day. However...dry
air mass that has kept much of the precip away the last couple of
days could stunt this idea, too...as it will likely remain in place,
at least for a little while longer. Better moisture transport,
especially across the Yoop on Monday, suggests a boost in rain
chances across our northern regions. Additionally, guidance derived
soundings suggest we may very well warm enough to try to pop some
convection across interior northern Lower in particular...as
background flow may very well remain weak enough for lake breezes to
develop and further instigate convection.

Tuesday....Boundary should begin its southward creep on Tuesday,
perhaps as early as the morning. Appears we should gain some
elevated instability...and it should become more moist with time
ahead of the boundary...thus, think potential for storm development
will be present. However...do wonder if the best rain chances will
(as usual) split around us...noting signals for more progressive
flow to our north...as the boundary drops south of us Tuesday
night...with moisture aloft fading a bit overhead (potentially).
Winds aloft still look a little on the low side, though a little
directional shear around could be worth keeping an eye on for better
storm organization potential...esp across NE Lower/Saginaw Bay
region if the air mass is able to diurnally destabilize ahead of the
cold front moving in early. (If/where it remains clearer on
Tuesday...potential for highs well into the 80s...on top of
increasing moisture for instability.)

Wednesday...lingering BCZ (still unclear if it stalls overhead...or
just to our south) should become a focal point for additional
development as another wave moves up the boundary. Think this will
be the best shot at deep moisture through the period, with pwats
potentially ramping up above 1.5in along/ahead of the
boundary...suggesting potential for a lot of moisture to get wrung
out of the atmosphere. Deep layer shear could be a little better
with this wave, particularly if it is more on the aggressive
side...which could be more favorable for severe weather
potential...though it is unclear attm how far north this threat will
extend (largely related to where that boundary ends up stalling). If
it does end up to our south...that split idea may well come to
fruition, as it could focus better rainfall south of us. Thunder
potential could very well hang on into Thursday across the
area...though details for this remain more unclear.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Mainly VFR. Clouds will slowly/gradually thin today from ne to
sw, with CIU going SCT first, and MBL perhaps not at all into
tonight. Cigs are and will remain VFR. Some concern that, with
decreasing clouds later today and light winds tonight, some fog
could emerge late tonight (perhaps the best chance at APN). Have
not included any fog mention in the new TAFs, for now at least.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ