055
FXUS63 KAPX 050430
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1230 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low-end shower / drizzle chances drag their feet into the
  morning south of Grand Traverse Bay this morning.

- Overall trending drier with above normal temperatures through
  the holiday weekend into next week.

- Next rain / thunder chances build by midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

We find ourselves sandwiched between a pair of prominent
features synoptically... closed, retrograding low off Atlantic
Canada will allow for the amplification of 500mb ridging aloft,
and thus leading to increased heights and subsidence aloft for a
few days. At the surface, backdoor frontal passage well underway
as drier air builds in from the northeast... dewpoints in the
50s have infiltrated eastern upper and are on the move into far
northern and northeast lower, while the rest of the area has
seen dewpoints settle near or just above 60... the lone exception
being the far SW of the CWA, which continues to be in a juicer...
TVC sitting at 66 Td, CAD holding with a 68 Td, and MBL clinging
on to a 71 Td. As long as this amount of moisture remains in
place, suppose a lingering shower could drag its feet into the
morning hours toward Frankfort / Manistee / Cadillac, but that
should be short-lived. Stationary front itself has migrated well
south... stretching from roughly La Crosse, WI through Chicago
and ESE through Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. As such,
aforementioned retrograding low off the Atlantic will continue
to drive the front SSW, and support a period of drier, tranquil
late-summer weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend.
Ridge axis overhead paired with increasingly deep SW return flow
will drive temperatures 5-10 degrees above average into the
beginning of the week (highs generally 73-83 today through
Tuesday, perhaps a touch warmer Wednesday).

Another shortwave surges into the Pacific Northwest early this
week... perhaps bringing a dandy of an enhanced moisture plume
from eastern Pacific Hurricane Marie... and drawing all that
moisture over the ridge axis. Core of the wave and associated
surface cyclogenesis looks to eject into the Dakotas and
Canadian Prairies / NW Ontario by midweek, but will force a
front into the region on Wednesday. Coupling this with potential
for high humidity and (pending arrival of best forcing)
instability, this will likely bring about the next shower /
storm chances... with perhaps a shot at some heavy rain. Still a
lot of variables to sort out before proceeding with messaging
explicitly outlining heavy rain potential, so will probably ride
with generic "shower and thunder chances" verbiage until this
system actually moves into North America. Long- range guidance
seems to want to turn resultant flow aloft to more zonal with
this system`s passage... which essentially translates to a
stalling frontal boundary across the Great Lakes region. Current
indications are that this front looks to stall just to our
south to close out the week. This conceptually would result in
more of an unsettled, "cooler" but probably still somewhat humid
airmass for a few days to end the week and going into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A cluster of showers is likely to pass near/over TVC close to
midnight. TS is not impossible, but it has been a while since
this cluster has produced any lightning. MBL has chance of
showers as well later tonight. MVFR to VFR cigs in northern
lower MI, though this will thin with time, though with some fog
possible after that. PLN/APN/MBL have the best chances for fog.
VFR on Saturday. Light winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...JZ