344
FXUS63 KAPX 090510
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
110 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms today. Strongest storms will be
  capable of lightning, heavy rain and gusty outflow winds

- Near to slightly above seasonal temperatures through midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Currently, a large and broad upper low is anchored over the Hudson
Bay while an upper level high is centered over the four corners
area. Quasi-zonal flow aloft over the Rockies has initiated lee
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas. The southerly LLJ is continuing to
return deep Gulf moisture into the central plains this morning,
after a brief push back to the southeast post cold front a couple of
days ago. Near the surface, ridging continues over MI this morning
but will be exiting near sunrise. Southwest winds will quickly
become lightly gusty over parts of northern MI as the gradients
tighten today.

The drier CAN airmass, which settled in yesterday, has resulted in
Tds in the 50s over MI, reaching into WI as well. As winds turn
southwest today, it will take some time for the deeper moisture
behind the warm front to reach all the way into northern MI (if
at all). Although this is the case, chances for scattered
showers and storms exist today due to convective initiation to
the west, and steering flow moving it towards MI. Depending on
how storms strengthen and organize (MCS?), the track of the
steering winds and instability gradient will likely take them
into south and central MI around midday/early afternoon. Storms
are already initiating over the Dakotas (which verifies a few
CAMs on location and timing). If storms can organize and
strengthen, gusty outflow winds will be possible for the Lk MI
shore communities south of M-72 (up to 40 mph gusts). The main
hazards, however, will be lightning and brief heavy rain. Any
training of storms could result in flooding of lower lying
areas.

After this, the surface low will usher in behind the convection this
evening. CAMs rope off the more plentiful moisture to the south,
which will result in little to no instability while the surface low
meanders overhead. Although this set up would struggle to generate
showers and storms, a slight chance remains for showers this evening
and tonight due to the chance of lingering moisture (especailly with
the absence of a drier airmass scouring things out). More optimistic
soundings show shallow instability, resulting in the favoring of
showers overnight vs storms. Very low chances for hazards with
these storms besides a handful of lightning strikes.

Light north winds signal the very gradual movement of surface high
pressure seeping into northern MI Monday. By the afternoon, the best
instability will reside over the southern parts of the state.
With that said, PWATs of 1" or more remain over the northern
part of the state, with around a 1000 j/kg of SB instability
over during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely
to form along lake breeze boundaries (which will be mostly
diurnally driven). Enough shear will be present for the
opportunity of a few popcorn convective cells to grow.

Another possible surge of the warm and hot airmass to the south
presents itself on Tuesday, before a larger CAN surface high will
settle over the state for the weekend. This could drop temperatures
into the high 60s to low 70s in some spots.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR Tonight and into Sunday. Light winds tonight turn south to
southwest, gusting 15kts+ by the afternoon. Clouds increase
Sunday, particularly in the afternoon. System may bring a
complex of showers, especially the farther south one goes. Low
confidence in TSRA at MBL. Will see lowering CIGs into Sunday
evening / night, perhaps reaching MVFR at TVC, with better shot
at MVFR at MBL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...HAD