427
FXUS63 KAPX 241034
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
634 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool nights with patchy frost possible

- Otherwise very quiet into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Stout rex blocking reinforced by a chonker of a 1037mb surface
high over Quebec to remain overhead throughout the period...
upper low over the Ohio Valley to undergo Miller B cyclogenesis
and produce what looks like quite the impressive early season
nor`easter... but the blocking 500mb ridge and surface will only
be forced into retrograde overhead through the weekend and into
early next week. As such, anticipating a prolonged period of
steady temperatures and drier weather across the region through
the weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile, longwave
troughing to settling along the Pacific coast over the weekend
into next week, which should lead to a classic El Nino
subtropical jet amplification and result in a series of Pacific
moisture rich waves ejecting into the Plains. Numerous question
marks regarding the northward extent of the associated deep
moisture plume from the aformentioned waves into next week, but
nonetheless, there are signals for rain chances creeping into
the picture midweek next week and beyond.

Details:

Big blue bubble of no trouble, the big H... whatever words to use
for high pressure, they will apply for at least the next 6 days
worth of weather forecasting across the region. As such, a complete
and utter lack of sensible weather anticipated... overnight forecast
calls for dark, gradually turning partly light again in the morning.
All George Carlin references aside, there are a couple things to
watch with this pattern will be RH levels and gradually drier ground
conditions... could see a couple days approach problematic fire
weather parameters as highs top out in the low to mid 70s for most
through early next week. Overnight lows a product of quality diurnal
response through the weekend... interior icebox locales in the 30s,
most elsewhere in the 40s... immediate coastal areas near 50. As
such, could see our first run of frost headlines at times across
interior locales... NBM guidance is already dipping interior
temps 37 and lower in places Friday and Saturday nights... so
wouldn`t be surprising to see locally colder temps. From a climo
standpoint, late September is well within range for frost
across the region, so this isn`t anything dramatically out of
the ordinary.

There are some rumblings of a change in pattern heading into and
past midweek next week. Aforementioned Pacific coast trough will be
quite efficient in drawing deep tropical moisture from the Gulf of
California north and east into the Four Corners / southern Plains to
start next week. Certainly looks like a classic El Nino active
subtropical jet outburst. Some guidance members want to have any
shortwave ejections become quite amplified as they move into the
Plains and undergo surface cyclogenesis... and thus return moisture
and rain chances to the region. Going to be completely honest here,
if El Nino climatology is to be honored, the members of guidance
depicting minimal moisture intrusion and rainfall into the Great
Lakes may win out... one of the hallmarks of a strong El Nino is a
persistent dry and warm ridge over the Great Lakes and Midwest...
and given a lack of digging northern jet stream activity... I do
have a hard time seeing this deeper moisture making it much farther
north than the southern Plains, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio
Valley, and the Tennessee Valley. Time will only tell, but my gut
thought is the forecast for rainfall trends drier with time if climo
is any sort of indicator.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Any early morning fog and low stratus should burn off quickly
after sunrise with VFR conditions returning area-wide under
sunny skies today. Some increase in high clouds this evening-
tonight, with patchy fog possible again. Southeast winds today,
which could become a bit breezy at times this afternoon
(especially at KAPN and KCIU). Winds go light again this
evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...MJG