675
FXUS63 KAPX 060440
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1240 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower chances linger through this morning, as well as areas
  of fog near Lake Michigan

- A break in rain chances Sunday and Monday

- Rain and storm chances return Tuesday with hot temperatures
  and humid conditions through the end of the work week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Currently, deep moisture is moving over northern MI as the
upper ridge has reached south of the area. The 00z KAPX RAOB
depicted 1.19" PWATs, with current surface observations showing
low to mid 60s Tds around northern MI. A weak boundary & upper
short wave is moving over the state this morning, leading to a
line of showers with embedded convection. Although deep moisture
is present, instability lessens the more one moves north and
east due to the orientation of the upper wave (slightly warmer
air aloft lingering over NE lower) and how the convection is
deepening that wave as it moves across the state.

As the weak wave slowly exits this morning, the cooler and saturated
airmass near the surface will move in behind it. Patchy fog will be
seen over most of the higher hills and coastal areas of Lk MI.
Marine fog is current (and will continue to be) trapped in the MBL
through mid morning. Light northwest winds could allow the fog near
the Lake MI coast to continue into mid/late morning. Visibilities
could be as low as 1SM or less.

Drier air moves in around midday, allowing for skies to clear up
during the afternoon hours (afternoon CU could result in partly
cloudy). Breezy northwest winds will be seen during the afternoon
hours, and could keep temperatures cooler over coastal areas of NW
lower. Temperatures in the 80s for spots of NE lower.

Surface high pressure slides east over Ontario CAN while amplified
upper ridging builds in Sunday. Drier air and continue warm to hot
temperatures will be seen Sunday and Monday under these influences.
East winds will become breezy Sunday afternoon, and winds turn
southeast/south Monday.

Monday into tuesday, a closed low over the SW US will open up and
advect straight north on the windward side of the upper ride. Strong
southerlies over the central plains will advect deep gulf moisture
up into southern CAN (PWATs 1.5" to approaching 2" over parts of the
central plains). Decent confidence is seen in global ensembles for
moving this deep moisture over northern MI, with 75% of LREF members
showing at least 1.6" PWATs over Gaylord MI by noon Tuesday. The
wave will move over the state, returning shower and storm chances
Tuesday/Wednesday. This will also move a warm and wet airmass over
northern MI. Apparent temperatures could easily climb into the 90s
Wednesday through the end of the work week, with a 5 to 10% chance
for apparent temperatures in the 100s for Thursday (higher chances
south of M-72 and over the interior). Shower/storm chances will
make this a difficult and messy temperature forecast though, with
cloud cover potentially relieving those 100+ heat index afternoons.
Near the end of the work week, a larger upper trough swings through
to move that airmass away from the state and cooling things back to
normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

     Widespread IFR/LIFR Ceilings Developing...

Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings will develop later this evening
and overnight as a cold front pushes across the area. A period
of showers and a few thunderstorms will also be likely with
frontal passage, along with areas of fog developing. Ceilings
will remain low until after sunrise Saturday, with gradual
improvement throughout the morning as drier air starts to scour
out the lower level moisture. Light and variable winds tonight,
becoming northwest on Saturday and increasing to 10 to 20kts at
times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JK