377
FXUS63 KAPX 031714
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
114 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued smoke impacts Today.

- Dry to start the week (smoke impacts linger?).

- Warming temperatures and increasing chances of rain late in
  the week/ into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The forecast remains quiet through the short-term as surface
high pressure holds across the western Great Lakes. This pattern
continues to support dry conditions and limited cloud cover
across the Northwoods. Skies will generally be mostly sunny
today, though Wildfire smoke transported aloft on northwesterly
flow will continue to result in hazy/ filtered sunshine through
the day with perhaps some reduced visibilities possible at
times.

Afternoon temperatures will reach the low 80s with light winds
and lake breeze formations by midday. Overnight, winds will
remain light with clear skies and overnight lows in the 50s.
Patchy fog may develop late tonight into early Monday morning,
especially in the typical favored locations, but thinking any
development should remain localized and would burn off quickly
in the morning as the sun rises.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Little change is expected to start the new work week, with high
pressure gradually shifting eastward while maintaining control
over the region`s sensible weather through at least midweek.
This will keep conditions largely dry and seasonably warm
through Tuesday, with skies remaining mostly sunny and perhaps
some daytime cu development with passing higher-level clouds and
wildfire smoke aloft. Daytime highs will trend warmer through
the week with highs Monday and Tuesday largely in the mid to
upper 80s, and overnight lows sitting in the 50s/ 60s.

By midweek, upper-level ridging begins to break down as weak
disturbances approach from the northwest. This will introduce a
slightly more unsettled pattern for the second half of the week,
along with modest increase in low-level moisture. Precipitation
chances remain limited largely confined to isolated showers/
storms Thursday into the weekend, with the best chances likely
during the weekend. Temperatures will gradually rise through the
latter half of the week, with highs reaching into the upper 80s
to low 90s... Dewpoints will also increase making it feel
humid. Nights will gradually warm as well through the period
with lows trending into the upper 60s to possibly low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

High pressure remains in control, with minimal true cloud cover
aside from some shallow high based cumulus. Another day, more
wildfire smoke... for the time being, this has lifted across the
area and has allowed VFR to prevail, a trend that will carry through
sunset. Another night with nocturnal inversions leading to that
smoke settling back to the surface, so generally after 03 to 06z,
anticipating VSBYs to plunge again, likely MVFR to IFR for most,
though some LIFR is possible at MBL late tonight. This should be
scoured out into Monday morning, allowing most sites to return to
prevailing VFR, with just some high cloud intruding from the
west.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...HAD