291
FXUS63 KAPX 102010
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
310 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow picks up in NW to NNW flow snowbelt
  locations.

- Active stretch of weather anticipated this weekend as it turns
  colder.

- Possible warmup next week?

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Longwave troughing continues to encompass much of eastern NOAM, with
embedded sharp shortwave being forced eastward into Ontario and
western New York. Attendant surface low approaching Leamington, ON
will continue its eastward trek as well, taking with it the synoptic
snows across the southeast portion of the CWA. Cyclonic flow regime
will remain locked into place... currently festering northerly flow
lake effect set to carry through the afternoon, which will present
snow shower chances primarily west of I-75 and across far NE
lower... with emphasis on areas downwind of Grand Traverse Bay.
Looking at an additional inch or two there... most other places up
to an inch.

Next order of business is currently staring us down from the north
shores of Lake Superior... which will serve as a vital piece in what
looks to be a shorter duration but plenty intense enough lake effect
snow burst late this evening through Thursday morning. The passage
of this trough will probably bring some more widespread bursts of
snow as the surface convergence zone passes and the cold air
advection regime is reinforced... but should quickly shift toward
NNW to NW flow lake effect snows. As such, anticipating much of the
activity to become confined to the snowbelts into tonight... though
with strong flow, wouldn`t be surprising to see some farther inland
reaching lake effect snow, which may have implications on Missaukee
and Roscommon, pending on where dominant lake effect banding sets up
across northern lower. For our friends north of the Bridge,
anticipating lake effect snows to be most persistent west of I-75,
with wind direction largely remaining more northerly, and thus,
forcing lake effect snows west of the Sault. All in all, most areas
in the snowbelts probably wind up with a general 2 to 5 inches of
accumulation through Thursday afternoon... with localized totals in
excess of 8 inches between I-75 and US 131 across NW lower and west
of a Brimley to Rudyard line in eastern upper. As such, Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued or extended across the snowbelts
to account for the snowfall, along with winds gusting 25 to 30mph
that will lead to blowing snow and visibility reductions.

The big caveat to consider here is that as the core of the cold air
builds, we may see a phenomenon where that dense arctic air bottled
up by the lakes leaks into eastern upper via a persistent NNE flow.
In the event this occurs, this could suppress lake effect activity
across the board more south and west. Given these uncertainties,
just not enough there to pull the trigger on a Winter Storm
Warning... which unfortunately, if needed, will likely have to be a
nowcast type situation. Regardless, a general downward trend in
snows is anticipated through the day Thursday as inversion heights
lower and moisture becomes less impressive... along with a
slackening pressure gradient. All of these factors will contribute
to lake snows beginning to confine to the shores as land-lake breeze
convergence becomes the primary driver of lake effect snow. As such,
most areas probably see a brief tranquil period of weather later
Thursday afternoon that will run into the Long Term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Active weather set to carry through the weekend.

Friday - Sunday: A setup we have been quite familiar with to start
this young winter season, looks like another clipper system is set
to move through Friday into Friday night. Once again, preceding SW
to SSW flow lake effect banding will make its presence known, which
could have considerable impacts for US 2 west of St. Ignace, the
Straits region, and the immediate NW lower lakeshore. Once the
trough axis for this system clears, anticipating more of a W to WNW
flow regime to build with lake effect snow chances across snowbelts
favored by the aforementioned wind direction. This activity will
carry through from late Friday night through the day on Saturday.
Weakening pressure gradient and thermally driven surface low
pressure developing over Lake Superior could bring about a lake
aggregate troughing situation as we go from Saturday night into
Sunday. Will have to watch for any mesolow shenanigans during this
time, as another trough axis passage on Saturday night could advect
any overlake features inland. In the wake of this trough`s passage,
flow turns more NNW to NW, and thus, lake effect snows will shift
into those dominant snowbelt areas. Certainly a prolonged and
complex period of wintry weather... further complicated by potential
for very cold air to stunt dendritic growth processes (850mb temps
as low as -20C). This could lead to lesser snow totals for such a
prolonged event, but the dense, powdery nature of any snow could
lead to easier reductions in visibilities.

Monday - Next Week: Another weak system set to pass through Monday
night, which could bring another round of light snow to the region.
On the heels of that system, anticipating a bit of a change from our
recent cold and snowy pattern... sure looks like the Pacific
influences spike heading through next week. As such, anticipating
deeper cold to retreat north into Canada, while we trend milder here
in the Northwoods... potentially with temperatures above freezing by
later next week. All in all, still a lot to unpack with this stretch
as this airmass will have to survive a trek over an expansive
snowpack reaching as far south and west as Des Moines. As such, a
lot to iron out in details, but the theme remains the same... it is
going to trend warmer into next week... just a question of how much.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Renewed lake effect snow showers in the process of ramping up on
the backside of departing low pressure as gusty north-northwest
winds draw in cooler air. While variable CIGs from VFR to MVFR
are anticipated through the afternoon/evening, localized
CIG/VSBY drops to IFR possible in any beefier snow showers --
primarily PLN/TVC/MBL. Low probabilities for LIFR conditions at
TVC/PLN later this afternoon into the early overnight hours.

More solid MVFR CIGs, along with additional lake effect snow
showers, expected to prevail later tonight into Thursday
morning. Gustiness largely continued through the majority of the
TAF period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     MIZ020-025-031-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for MIZ021-022-
     026>028-033-034-099.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Thursday for MIZ086-087.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MJG