949
FXUS63 KAPX 170941
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
541 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered rain showers to diminish with time into the morning,
 with peeks of sun prevailing by afternoon.

-Squeaking out a dry Friday before rain chances return Friday
 night into Saturday. Greatest rain / shower coverage and
 heaviest rainfall generally favor areas along and south of
 M-72.

-Largely dry next week with a true autumnal feel

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Moisture-starved northern stream wave currently zipping eastward
across the US-Canada border will traverse the region tonight,
bringing what will likely be a decaying batch of showers. Meanwhile,
a robust thermal ridge over the southeastern CONUS (contributing to
record heat in the South) to retrograde westward with time the rest
of this week, in turn inducing a WNW flow pattern across the Midwest
and Great Lakes region into this weekend. Stationary front setting
up shop well to the south, currently remaining the focus for deeper
moisture and resultant robust convective responses spanning from
roughly Missouri to eastern Ohio. This particular corridor will
remain the focus for southern stream wave activity through the
weekend.

These waves will likely come in abundance... longwave troughing over
the Pacific Northwest to draw tropical Pacific shortwaves out of the
Gulf of California via deep return flow. These waves are set to zip
through the Four Corners region (where there are already ongoing
hydrologic issues) and into the central and northern Plains...
riding the stationary front and associated WNW flow regime through
the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region. How far north the
return flow can force a ridge axis and the ejection point of these
waves will mark the difference between northern Michigan seeing a
robust period of rainfall or a glancing blow from these systems
spanning the weekend and into next week.

Details:

Not a whole lot of change to highlight from previous forecast cycle.
Aforementioned northern stream wave well within sight, with showers
blossoming over northern Minnesota and the Wisconsin Highlands,
zipping east into the western Yoop. Eastward progression of these
showers to continue through the rest of the night, reaching the
northwest lower lakeshore and eastern upper after 09z. With hostile
airmass in place characterized by a complete and utter lack of
moisture and instability, anticipation is that these already
diminishing rain showers will decay further as they progress ESE
through the CWA, with shower activity out of the picture by late
morning for most. Perhaps a few sprinkles or a light shower lingers
for our friends in the Saginaw Bay region by early afternoon, but
should clear by 18z at the latest.

Rest of the day looks dry as surface high pressure centered over NW
Ontario intrudes with subsidence aloft and restores meteorological
order... with peeks of sun likely. Highs top out in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Clear conditions tonight with the influence of the surface
high should lead to another comfortable night with lows in the 40s
inland and 50s along the immediate lakeshores. Dry weather to
continue Friday, but as the first of several waves of energy
approach, anticipation is that clouds increase through the day. At
this juncture, the big rainfall extravaganza set to manifest just to
our south as the stationary front fails to lift sufficiently north
enough to draw rich tropical Pacific moisture into the region... but
could come close enough to give us fringe impacts.

Most guidance wants to nose some efficient rainfall into the far
southern reaches of the CWA Friday night through Saturday... with
much less prolific rains the farther north one goes. This is echoed
by the latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks, which continue to
pinpoint the southeastern MN / northeast IA through downstate MI /
northern OH corridor for the greatest rainfall amounts and
associated impacts. That notwithstanding, current trends depict a
marked increase in rainfall intensity and frequency the farther
south one goes from the M-72 corridor... where some guidance members
are hinting at 1.00-2.00"+ of steady rainfall over that Friday
night - Saturday timeframe... with quickly reducing rainfall
amounts the farther north one goes. Pattern recognition says
this probably winds up being a "Manistee Special(TM)", where the
Manistee County area sees the overwhelmingly best shot at the
aforementioned rainfall amounts, with a sharp gradient of lesser
rainfall to the north / east. Honestly wouldn`t be overly shocking
to see little to no rainfall near and north of M-32 if this scenario
manifests.

Once this initial wave passes by Sunday, guidance is bullish on a
further southward suppression of the stationary front... which
should bring us cooler and drier air into next week, with rain
chances minimal at best and confined to the bottom row or two of
counties within the APX CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period, with decreasing
clouds today giving way to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
tonight. Light winds, with local lake breeze development this
afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...MSB