144
FXUS63 KAPX 162007
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
407 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of storms expected for parts of northern
  Michigan through tonight. Rainfall totals of 1-2" with
  localized 4" or more possible, bringing potential flooding to
  low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- Rain-free end to the week with rain/storm chances returning
  Saturday/Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

A subtle wave will continue to work across the area this evening
before a more pronounced shortwave punches overhead late tonight
through Thursday. A cold front draped across far northwest lower
will drop south as a deepening cyclone works northeast up the
boundary, crossing the Great Lakes tonight/Thursday morning. Surface
high pressure will then nose into the region on the backside of the
departing system by Thursday evening.

Forecast Details:

Multiple rounds of scattered to numerous storms are expected this
afternoon through tonight. Height falls/large-scale ascent has begun
to overspread the Northwoods, and showers/storms have already
started to pop up across parts of the area. Additional development
over the next few hours is likely, especially along the cold front
dropping south across the area. A complex with a broken line of
ongoing severe storms west of Lake Michigan will eventually work its
way across the lower peninsula later this evening and tonight.

As discussed by the previous forecaster, the primary concern with
activity through tonight will be localized heavy rainfall and
potential flooding. Near-climotological max PWAT values of between
1.6-1.9" are anticipated across northern Michigan through tonight,
setting the stage for efficient rainfall. Initial cells will tend to
be slow moving with relatively weak winds through the bottom half of
the profile. More mature cells will be supported by around 40kts of
deep layer shear to maintain organization, with a relatively slow
northeast track -- oriented along boundaries draped across the area.
The aforementioned complex of storms may also have training cells
along its northern periphery as the strongest attendant storms
likely pass to our south. This combination of favorable background
environment and potential for multiple rounds training over
localized areas of northern lower -- primarily southeast of a line
from Manistee to Rogers City -- brings forecast rainfall totals
of 0.5-1.5" to this area with localized totals of 4" or more
possible by Thursday morning. Low-lying and poor drainage areas
may see flooding should high-end rainfall totals materialize
later this evening and tonight. A few strong storms may lead to
localized gusty winds. Otherwise, rain chances will end from
west to east late tonight through Thursday morning, leaving most
of the day dry across northern Michigan.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will keep progressing east of the region Friday
as zonal mid/upper-level flow settles overhead through the first
half of the weekend. Subsidence aloft behind the aforementioned
shortwave will help build surface high pressure across the Great
Lakes through the end of the week. A shortwave embedded in the main
flow looks to pivot overhead in the Saturday/Saturday night
timeframe, providing ample support aloft to support a weak cyclone
that will trek across the Great Lakes into Sunday. Ridging and
associated high pressure appears to settle back in early next week.

Forecast Details:

Rain-free weather is expected through Friday night with
aforementioned high pressure in place. The next chances for showers
and storms return to the area Saturday and Saturday night as the
shortwave slides over the Great Lakes. Dry weather is in the
forecast for Sunday through the first half of next week as high
pressure builds back in. Afternoon highs are expected to be close to
average over the weekend with readings in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Temperatures look to gradually warm through early next week,
climbing well into the 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Showers and VCTS will move across Northern Michigan this
afternoon through tonight. CIGs will quickly drop to MVFR and
IFR conditions as precip moves across the region. Ceiling
heights remain low into Thursday morning with possible LIFR
conditions followed by gusty winds building in the late
morning/early afternoon hours of Thursday. VFR conditions
finally return Thursday afternoon at the end or shortly after
the forecast period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for MIZ020-025-031-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ323-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT
     Thursday for LMZ341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...SJC