441
FXUS63 KAPX 052316
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
716 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slow moving cold front will continue to kick off some showers and
embedded thunderstorms into early Thursday.

- Dry and seasonably warm weather to end the work week, with
  periodic shower and storm chances returning for the weekend
  into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Cold front making ever so slow progress east across our area today,
producing area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms as it
does so. Heaviest rain remains off to our southwest in area of much
more robust deep layer moisture convergence and area of better mid
level support. Mid level troughing driving this east moving front
centered across central NOAM...bookended by southwest Conus and west
Atlantic centered ridge axes.

Cold front will continue to work off to the east, exiting stage
right Thursday morning. Otherwise, large scale flow regime described
above remains essentially steadfast, with mid level troughing
controlling our weather through the weekend. Some hints northern
Conus flow becomes a bit more zonal in flavor heading into next week
as central NOAM troughing attempts to relax.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain evolution through Thursday morning. Focus shifts to temperature
trends and addressing additional chances for wet weather for the
remainder of the period.

Details:

Still expecting at least a few rounds of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms to rotate northeast along and ahead of the front
tonight into Thursday morning. Focus for rain will slowly pivot
southeast, likely centering near or a bit south of the Saginaw Bay
area by later tonight and early Thursday. This will be the area most
under the gone for some significant rain potential as additional
waves, some convectively enhanced/produced, rotate up across that
region. Guidance derived soundings confirm this heavy rain
potential, with saturated conditions through the entirety of the
vertical, with some limited cape through this moisture rich
environment likely supporting periods of efficient rain processes.
Definitely not looking at any widespread heavy rains, but wouldn`t
be at all surprised to see some local areas receive up to and over
an inch of rain by sunrise Thursday. Otherwise, expect a gradual
drying trend from northwest to southeast across our forecast
footprint area heading through the overnight. Threat for rain looks
to end during Thursday morning as front and mid/upper level support
pivot off to our southeast. High pressure looks to follow, bring dry
and seasonably mild weather to end the week.

Uncertainty remains significant for this weekend into early next
week, especially with regards to timing and placement of any
embedded lower amplitude waves traversing much broader longwave
troughing. Best course of action is to continue with at least chance
shower/storm wording Saturday through Monday. As expected,
temperatures are trending a bit cooler for this period, with highs
mostly in the 70s to lower 80s. Wouldn`t be surprised to see these
temperatures trend down even a bit further, especially if some of
the more cloudy and showery scenarios come to fruition. Little doubt
exact details for this weekends/early next weeks weather will change
in the coming day as timing and location of waves become better
realized.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 708 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

...Areas of IFR/LIFR Cigs and Vsbys Overnight...

Another batch of rain and possibly a few rumbles of thunder will
be likely this evening as a slow moving front gradually pushes
through the area. Plenty of low level moisture after the rain
ends, resulting in areas of IFR/LIFR Cigs and Vsbys with
fog/stratus. Conditions will improve Thursday morning, with
sunshine and drier weather.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JK