028
FXUS63 KAPX 281552
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1152 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very good shower chances late tonight into Thursday morning.
  A few t-storms possible late tonight.

- After tonight, relatively quiet and mild weather persists into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Pattern Synopsis: A rather flat southwest to northeast oriented
flow regime is in place to start the forecast period. An impulse
embedded within this flow will track mainly across the northern
tier of states/southern Canada, which will drag a cold front
through the Upper Great Lakes region later tonight into early
Thursday.

Behind the above mentioned disturbance, heights generally build
across much of eastern North America into early next week. A
stronger, slow moving, potentially cutoff trof will approach the
Great Lakes region after Monday, but model agreement in the
details with this system is not very good right now. There is
still plenty of time to get the details with this system ironed
out.


Forecast Details: Very mild conditions for late October linger
into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers
and possibly a thunderstorm are expected along/ahead of the
front after midnight tonight into early Thursday. The convection
will be elevated with a southwesterly low-level jet as high as
50 kts. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly steep as well ahead of
the front so some of the showers may be robust where they occur.
The weakening of the nocturnal low-level jet should result in
diminishing coverage/intensity of precipitation with eastward
extent.

Not a whole lot of weather of note through the weekend in the
wake of the front. Temperatures cool behind the front, although
still a little warmer than normal, but warm again after Friday
as upper-level heights rise and southerly low-level flow
returns. Rain chances start to return Monday night as a
stronger, but currently low confidence system approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR. Early morning showers will depart eastern upper MI shortly.
Clouds will decrease behind this, with mostly sunny skies today
in northern lower MI, partly cloudy in eastern upper. Clouds
increase again tonight, and showers and likely in the north and
west after midnight. Not impossible for a TSRA as well, though
this chance is small enough to not mention yet. Cigs will
thicken and lower as showers move in, but are expected to remain
VFR.

Southerly breezes increase today, and gustier yet tonight. LLWS
also develops tonight at all sites.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PBB
AVIATION...JZ