522
FXUS63 KAPX 020903
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
403 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainy through the week; heavy rain potential tonight into Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures early this week with some record highs in
  jeopardy...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging builds across the center of the country as sharp troughing
plows into the western US. Abundant difluence over the Central
Plains attm ahead of the base of the trough as PV maxima lifts
across the Four Corners region into the lee of the Rockies. Strong
southwesterly mid-level jet resulting in abundant Pacific moisture
transport into the CONUS...with extremely anomalous pwats in the
realm of 6-7 standard deviations above climo norms streaming into
the Central Plains. Increasing southerly flow through the length of
the Plains (40+kt LLJ) resulting in anomalous moisture wrapping over
the ridge axis into southern Ontario, albeit to less extremes than
out west (pwats generally running 2-4 standard deviations above the
mean...which is still notable). 850mb temps rise into the teens
again across the southern and central Plains...with the cold air
slipping by well to our northeast over Quebec with troughing up
there; cold front along the edge of this cold air drapes across
Hudson Bay. 1033mb surface high over the Mid-Atlantic; with surface
pressure falls congealing into a broad area of sub-1004mb over the
eastern Rockies into the western Plains. A couple longitudinal cold
fronts present with this system, through CO and NM ahead of the
trough axis, and stretching from AZ northwestward into WY, with a
stationary boundary stretching from here into southern Manitoba.
Here in the Great Lakes...a warm day yesterday with overnight temps
attm near or slightly warmer than last night; some semblance of
warm/moist advection resulting in a little more fog/low-clouds
around tonight, particularly across the EUP and Tip of the Mitt,
downwind of Lake MI and also where more favorable moisture lingered
all day.

Trough axis will continue to track eastward across the central CONUS
today through midweek, driving surface pressure falls across the
Upper Midwest through this period. Amid a very anomalously moist
environment, expect heavy rain concerns across the Plains/Upper
Midwest, with less certainty with eastward extent, which should be
further away from the more robust synoptic forcing with this system.
Upper trough may attempt to close off Tuesday into Wednesday before
additional upstream energy kicks it eastward for the latter half of
the week, dragging the trough axis across the area and bringing a
little cooler air back into the region for the end of the week.
Another wad of PV will punch its way across the northern CONUS later
this week, with signals for troughing to try to settle into the
eastern US again going into next weekend...though the evolution of
this remains unclear.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain tonight into Tuesday (likely beyond as well)...think widespread
rain could move in as soon as late afternoon for our Lake MI zones,
but should begin to overspread the area after 0z, with chances
lasting through the night, right on into Tuesday. Think the deepest
moisture will lift northward through the area Tuesday morning,
resulting in potential for a break in the more widespread rain...but
given a stout saturated layer in the low/mid-levels, would not be
surprised if we ended up with some drizzle around. The better
forcing appears to remain to our north and likely just to our west
tonight into Tuesday morning, and therefore, not surprised the EUP
has been removed from the excessive rain outlook since yesterday
morning`s forecast discussion. Even so...some signals in
deterministic guidance (increasingly in hi-res guidance as well)
suggest a period of heavy rain will be possible across the
central/EUP overnight...with as much as 0.50-1in of rainfall in 6hrs
ending 12z Tuesday, which is much more than the current rainfall
forecast suggests, though I have tweaked it up a tiny bit for now,
in the realm of 0.30+in for that 6hr period, given the anomalously
moist environment that will be present (pwats increasing to or above
1.5in) and signals for a theta-e advection maximum across the Yoop
tonight; any localized forcing could certainly squeeze out quite a
bit of moisture (incoming warm nose may also be a little more
supportive of efficient rainfall production as well). Given drought
conditions across the bulk of the UP attm, think an inch or so of
rain will be helpful...do worry a bit about some hydro impacts up
there if it all comes at once, noting some of our rivers are a bit
flashy north of the Bridge.

Heaviest rainfall concerns should be tonight into Tuesday with this
initial surge of warm advection ahead of the strengthening system
upstream. Showery activity could hang out as the upper low slowly
meanders eastward through the middle of the week. There appears to
be another shot of rain with cold advection as the trough axis
finally exits the region Thursday. This latter period has potential
to support overlake instability as 850mb temps fall to or below 0C
again going into Thursday night...though the atmosphere will not be
quite as anomalously moist as Tuesday.

Mild temperatures continue...not expecting a ton of change overall
in the air mass today vs yesterday, except that there should be more
in the way of cloud cover around which could limit diurnal heating.
We should be starting off a little warmer tonight than last night,
suggesting we could end up a bit warmer than yesterday, particularly
in south-flow downsloping areas (e.g., TVC, APN). Temperatures
should reach into the 60s with some ease...though the question
remains, will we tie or break more records today? Think we will come
close, particularly for sites where record highs are only in the
60s...and those downsloping areas have a better shot... as well as
our southeast, where there could be a little less in the way of
cloud cover this afternoon. Even warmer air creeps in Tuesday --
850mb temps around +12C; but not entirely confident in how warm we
will get, given the potential for clouds to stick around, and that
we may not mix deep enough for this warm of air to come into play.
If we do...certainly would not be impossible for more of the area to
rise into the 70s for highs (current forecast has these mostly
focused toward our SE again)...and this would have a better shot at
breaking records. Think we would need much more sun Tuesday than we
are currently expecting for this, though.

Record high temps for today are as follows...
GLR...69F/2022
ANJ...67F/1990
HTL...75F/1938
TVC...69F/1938
APN...75F/1933
PLN...72F/2022

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1012 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Still expecting some IFR producing mist and stratus to develop
early this morning at KCIU, with these low conditions lifting as
we head further through the morning. VFR conditions elsewhere
into at least early this afternoon under some passing mid level
clouds. Deeper moisture and attendant MVFR producing cigs
arrive from west to east across the taf locations later this
afternoon through this evening. Some showers are possible as
well this evening, but better rain chances look to arrive just
after this taf period. Light winds will continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 PM EST
     Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...MSB