Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
456
FXUS63 KAPX 160501
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
101 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog & freezing fog potential tonight for eastern upper and
interior northern lower locations

- Unsettled weather moves in late Thursday and lingers through the
weekend, brining better chances for beneficial rain over eastern
upper and parts of northern lower

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Current satellite shows mid level clouds gradually thinning out this
afternoon over northern MI. Winds remain light, and temperatures
have risen into the mid to high 50s. Skies will continue to clear
out for tonight. Surface high pressure will allow for light winds
tonight. Cloudy skies have kept the moisture in the lower levels
today, as surface dewpoints remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s this
afternoon. Due to the moisture retention, chances for fog formation
have increase tonight. With the chances for areas of fog to form,
this will mean overnight temperatures will remain in the mid 30s
to low 40s (fog will likely form over the coldest locations
while warmer (coastal) locations will be clear but have marine
influences. Better chances for more coverage of fog over eastern
upper, with patchy fog likely over interior locations of
northern lower.

Skies will clear Thursday morning. Winds will turn southeast in the
afternoon and become breezy as the next system approaches. High
clouds will move in towards the later half of the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A large upper low brining snow to the mountains of the western CONUS
will position a SW/NE upper jet over the front range Thursday. This
strong jet will not only generate lee side lows over NE CO and SE
WY, but will carry them north towards the Dakotas. Pacific moisture
from the upper low will meet with Gulf moisture over the central
plains, allowing for an intial surface cyclone to intensify. A warm
front will stretch over the Dakotas and into MN/WI Thursday.
Progression of the deepening upper low & surface cyclone to the E/NE
will move this precip over the U.P. and towards northern MI. Deep
moisture will exist with this intial round (starting early Friday
and lingering through the day), with PWATs forecasted to reach
1.25". With a window of precipitation around 18 hours (max), and
intermittent stratiform rain with occasional heavier bands moving
through - intial thoughts for QPF remain less than an inch for this
first round (Friday). Up to a half inch for eastern upper and a
tenth to a quarter for northern lower with the most falling near the
tip of the mitt.

This weekend, the system lifts into CAN but tracks and cold front
through the state. More rain showers will move through during the
day Saturday. South winds ahead of the boundary will become gusty
(gusts up to 20 to 25 mph). There will also be chances for embedded
storms - ahead of the front and along the boundary as some marginal
MUCAPE exists (couple hundred J/kg). Ensembles are showing broad
upper troughing extending over most of the central CONUS, with some
hinting at another wave rotating down the trough. Global guidance
wants to deepen the upper trough by phasing the shortwave with it,
and track that upper low right over MI Sunday. Moderate uncertainty
exists with this solution, the phasing and track are up for debate
still. However, rain chances will likely continue into Sunday.

High uncertainty exists for next week, as this weekend heavily
impacts the larger scale patterns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR through much of the period, though with some caveats. Will
see potential for some BR or even FG development later tonight
into Thursday morning, with most impacts anticipated at all
sites except TVC. Potential for IFR to LIFR conditions with this
fog if it can materialize over a TAF site. FG / BR scours out
in the morning, with firmly VFR conditions carrying through the
day and into Thursday evening as high pressure holds overhead.
Will have to watch for a warm front lifting into the region
Thursday night... though the majority of any -SHRA and lower
CIGs will likely hold off until the very end of or after this
forecast period, and will initially favor NW lower and eastern
upper sites if anything can materialize at the end of this
forecast period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...HAD