


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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456 FXUS63 KAPX 160501 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 101 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog & freezing fog potential tonight for eastern upper and interior northern lower locations - Unsettled weather moves in late Thursday and lingers through the weekend, brining better chances for beneficial rain over eastern upper and parts of northern lower && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Current satellite shows mid level clouds gradually thinning out this afternoon over northern MI. Winds remain light, and temperatures have risen into the mid to high 50s. Skies will continue to clear out for tonight. Surface high pressure will allow for light winds tonight. Cloudy skies have kept the moisture in the lower levels today, as surface dewpoints remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s this afternoon. Due to the moisture retention, chances for fog formation have increase tonight. With the chances for areas of fog to form, this will mean overnight temperatures will remain in the mid 30s to low 40s (fog will likely form over the coldest locations while warmer (coastal) locations will be clear but have marine influences. Better chances for more coverage of fog over eastern upper, with patchy fog likely over interior locations of northern lower. Skies will clear Thursday morning. Winds will turn southeast in the afternoon and become breezy as the next system approaches. High clouds will move in towards the later half of the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A large upper low brining snow to the mountains of the western CONUS will position a SW/NE upper jet over the front range Thursday. This strong jet will not only generate lee side lows over NE CO and SE WY, but will carry them north towards the Dakotas. Pacific moisture from the upper low will meet with Gulf moisture over the central plains, allowing for an intial surface cyclone to intensify. A warm front will stretch over the Dakotas and into MN/WI Thursday. Progression of the deepening upper low & surface cyclone to the E/NE will move this precip over the U.P. and towards northern MI. Deep moisture will exist with this intial round (starting early Friday and lingering through the day), with PWATs forecasted to reach 1.25". With a window of precipitation around 18 hours (max), and intermittent stratiform rain with occasional heavier bands moving through - intial thoughts for QPF remain less than an inch for this first round (Friday). Up to a half inch for eastern upper and a tenth to a quarter for northern lower with the most falling near the tip of the mitt. This weekend, the system lifts into CAN but tracks and cold front through the state. More rain showers will move through during the day Saturday. South winds ahead of the boundary will become gusty (gusts up to 20 to 25 mph). There will also be chances for embedded storms - ahead of the front and along the boundary as some marginal MUCAPE exists (couple hundred J/kg). Ensembles are showing broad upper troughing extending over most of the central CONUS, with some hinting at another wave rotating down the trough. Global guidance wants to deepen the upper trough by phasing the shortwave with it, and track that upper low right over MI Sunday. Moderate uncertainty exists with this solution, the phasing and track are up for debate still. However, rain chances will likely continue into Sunday. High uncertainty exists for next week, as this weekend heavily impacts the larger scale patterns. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR through much of the period, though with some caveats. Will see potential for some BR or even FG development later tonight into Thursday morning, with most impacts anticipated at all sites except TVC. Potential for IFR to LIFR conditions with this fog if it can materialize over a TAF site. FG / BR scours out in the morning, with firmly VFR conditions carrying through the day and into Thursday evening as high pressure holds overhead. Will have to watch for a warm front lifting into the region Thursday night... though the majority of any -SHRA and lower CIGs will likely hold off until the very end of or after this forecast period, and will initially favor NW lower and eastern upper sites if anything can materialize at the end of this forecast period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...HAD