515
FNUS53 KAPX 040621
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
221 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...Elevated Fire Danger this Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Drying fuels...combined with summer-like warmth, sub
40 percent afternoon relative humidity values, and increasingly
gusty southwest winds will result in elevated fire danger through
the weekend...especially so on Sunday when wind gusts will
frequently exceed critical levels. Rather deep afternoon mixing
heights today and Sunday will also support rather rapid fire growth.
Much needed rain chances return Monday during transition period to
much cooler weather by mid-week.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-042015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
221 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent...except 40-45 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1172).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...8 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (48).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1562).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-042015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
221 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Vent Rate...........Excellent (928).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (41).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1500).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-042015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
221 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1217).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (59).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1555).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 27
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-042015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
221 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent...except 44-49 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 8 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1266).
Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (53).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1640).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 27
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-042015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
221 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1314).
Mixing Height.......7900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (47).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1724).
Mixing Height.......6900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...COOLER, SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB