398
FNUS53 KAPX 212003
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
403 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...Rain and Storms Sunday into Sunday Night...

.DISCUSSION...
Stretch of warm weather ends tonight...as cold front plows into the
region. Showers and storms move in tonight, hanging out into Sunday
night until the front moves on out. Cooling Sunday behind the
front...greatest potential for warmer temps in the 70s/near 80 in
the Saginaw Bay region...but still a bit more humid to preclude
afternoon RH concerns. Some spotty areas of a half inch to an inch
of rain possible over parts of the area Sunday into Sunday night.
SW winds Sunday ahead of the front switch to N behind the
front...increasing to 10-15mph, gusting 15-20mph at times Sunday
night into Monday...strongest over NW Lower.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-220815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
403 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 15 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (14).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south around
                    9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
                    Rain showers after 1200. Patchy fog after 1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (164).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west around
                    12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.44 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400. Rain showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (100).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.10- 0.35 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler...except 1 degree cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 25 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (428).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-220815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
403 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler...except 2 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (196).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.32 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400. Rain showers until 2400, then chance of
                    rain showers.
Min Temperature.....51-56...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (63).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.25- 1.15 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (431).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-220815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
403 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (14).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    until 1200. Chance of thunderstorms. Rain
                    showers after 1200. Patchy fog after 1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 HR Trend......29 percent wetter...except 21 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (181).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.22- 0.59 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400. Chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....48-53...except 56-61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (135).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.30 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 17 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (432).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-220815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
403 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier...except 16 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
                    Rain showers after 1200. Patchy fog after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......33 percent wetter...except 24 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (187).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west around
                    12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.20- 0.56 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400. Chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (111).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.44 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 20 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (447).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-220815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
403 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200, then rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....75-80.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (236).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.28 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400. Rain showers likely until 2400, then
                    chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (69).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.23- 1.02 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (491).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

FEF