401
FNUS53 KAPX 090738
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
338 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...Dry Today; Rain Building for Friday...

.DISCUSSION...Another dry and seasonable day on tap across the
Northwoods. Highs top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the
board. Generally south winds will hold sustained 10mph or less
with perhaps an occasional gust reaching 20mph this afternoon.
Certainly on the dry side, with RHs dipping into the lower 30s,
perhaps some upper 20s RHs across far northern lower (and
downsloping areas from south winds) and the interior elevations.
As such, fire danger will be flirting with elevated criteria, but
the combination of cooler temperatures and lighter winds will
suppress fire danger. That being said, continued dry conditions
and natural vegetation decay will lead to dry fuels across areas
that failed to see appreciable rainfall Monday and Monday night.
Looking ahead, we will embark on a warming trend, but appreciable
rain chances will build into the region through the day Friday
into Friday night. Rain chances will linger into Saturday. Highs
will likely be pushing or even exceeding 70 Sunday into next week,
and there may be additional, albeit, minor rain chances.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-092100-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
338 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Widespread frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........28-33 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier...except 12 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (330).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42...except 46-51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 21 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (479).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.25 in.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-092100-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
338 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Widespread frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....57-62...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (366).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the south in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Patchy frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....36-41...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (38).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Rain showers
                    likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (448).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-092100-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
338 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Widespread frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (345).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 26 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (598).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.25 in.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-092100-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
338 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Widespread frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (353).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (552).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.21 in.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-092100-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
338 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Widespread frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (334).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 3 mph shifting to the south
                    around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....32-37.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Areas of frost
                    until 1200. Chance of rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (467).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.COLUMBUS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

HAD