868
FNUS53 KAPX 211841
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
241 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...Increasing chances for showers, some heavy, this weekend...

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase tonight, with fairly widespread showers
likely Saturday into Saturday night. Locally heavy rain is likely,
with many areas likely receiving well over an inch of rain by
Sunday morning. A few shower will linger into Sunday, with
additional periodic chances for showers through next week. No
significant wind concerns through the weekend.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-221130-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
241 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Scattered showers.
                    Scattered thunderstorms after 2400. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (39).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.46 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........73-78 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (106).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 1.13- 1.84 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers until 2400.
                    Scattered thunderstorms. Showers likely after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (47).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 1.10- 1.82 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (659).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.21 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-221130-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
241 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Scattered showers.
                    Scattered thunderstorms after 2400. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (33).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.23- 0.58 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Numerous rain showers until 1200. Scattered
                    thunderstorms. Rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler...except 5 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........71-76 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (88).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.44- 1.71 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers until 2400.
                    Scattered thunderstorms. Showers likely after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (54).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.49- 2.01 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200, then
                    chance of showers.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier...except 12 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (860).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.16 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-221130-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
241 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Scattered showers.
                    Scattered thunderstorms after 2400. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.20 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........68-73 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 5 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.92- 1.42 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers and scattered
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (86).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.78- 1.46 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 10 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (574).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-221130-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
241 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Scattered showers.
                    Scattered thunderstorms after 2400. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.22 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Scattered showers until 1200. Scattered
                    thunderstorms. Showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........74-79 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (221).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.61- 1.16 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers until 2400.
                    Scattered thunderstorms. Showers likely after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.83- 1.45 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (758).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-221130-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
241 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Scattered showers.
                    Scattered thunderstorms after 2400. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (39).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.56 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Numerous showers until 1200. Scattered
                    thunderstorms. Showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........67-72 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (144).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.27- 1.44 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and scattered
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (106).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.43- 1.39 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (925).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB