845
FNUS53 KAPX 181931
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...HOT, HUMID, POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS...

.DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid weather to continue through the next several days...
though periods of relief are expected for Thur/Fri...and
potentially Sun and Mon...as a boundary drops into the area
Wed night, stalls, and meanders back and forth over the region
into the weekend. These "cooler" temps will be in the 70s to low 80s
(vs upper 80s/low 90s)...with less mugginess. Threat for pop-up
showers/storms continues as well...esp along the boundary as it meanders
back and forth. This idea suggests rain/storms could be slow-moving at
times...and could persist over an area for a while. Unclear attm exactly
where these localized, focused rain threats will end up...but think
the greatest threats will be near the M-55 corridor and I-75 to Lake Michigan.
Winds today from the southwest 15mph gusting 20-25mph; higher gusts in
thunderstorms. Winds become more W/NW by Wed/Wed night and diminish;
generally light and variable/E to SW winds under 10mph into Fri; slightly
gustier for the weekend.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-190830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
331 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (100).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.JUNETEENTH...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 1200, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....89-94...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent...except 55-60 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 9 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (877).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.19 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (47).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (259).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-190830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
331 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (69).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.16 in .

.JUNETEENTH...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....89-94...except 77-82 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1178).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.33 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (67).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.17 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (225).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-190830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
331 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Isolated showers.
                    Isolated thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (104).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.JUNETEENTH...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers until 1200. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Chance of showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....86-91...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 8 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 8 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (763).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (55).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (181).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-190830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
331 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (105).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.JUNETEENTH...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....86-91...except 74-79 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (879).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of showers.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 77-82 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (49).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the
                    northeast after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.12 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Chance of showers.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (161).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.19 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-190830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
331 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (81).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .

.JUNETEENTH...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....88-93.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1365).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.19 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    north after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 12 mph shifting to the north
                    around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.14 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....79-84.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (245).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

FEF