Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
628
FNUS53 KAPX 301930
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026
...Remaining Damp with More Shower Chances into Thursday...
.DISCUSSION...A general 0.10-0.25" of rain was observed across
much of northern lower Michigan today, with a pair of
exceptions... a narrow corridor from the Leelanau Peninsula ENE
through Antrim, Charlevoix, northern Otsego, Cheboygan, northern
Montmorency, and Presque Isle counties saw localized 0.50"+, and
spots closer to the Bridge generally realized less than 0.10".
RHs to remain high tonight as fog / drizzle manifests... with
showers building generally south of the M-68 corridor later
tonight into Thursday. Another 0.10"-0.25" seems reasonable for
most, though spots south of M-72 may see 0.50"+ through Thursday
evening. All in all, another low fire danger day owing to the
continuity of rain / moisture across the region. Drier weather
builds Friday and into Saturday before another quick-hitting
period of shower chances returns Saturday night into early Sunday.
Temperatures to remain seasonable with two exceptions... very mild
tonight and we are anticipating the first widespread frost /
freeze Friday night into Saturday.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-011000-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
330 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog.
Slight chance of rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (58).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog. Chance of
showers until 1200Showers likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 60-65 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 9 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (197).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.31 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....46-51...except 55-60 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......17 degrees cooler...except 10 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 14 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......28 percent drier...except 12 percent drier
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (986).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-011000-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
330 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.18 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog. Rain
showers likely until 1200Rain showers after
1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 60-65 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........70-75 percent.
24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (133).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.53 in.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until
2400. Rain showers likely until 2400.
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 52-57 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (41).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.25 in .
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68...except 53-58 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
24 HR Trend......40 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1060).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-011000-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
330 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog.
Chance of rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (54).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.20 in .
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog. Rain
showers likely until 1200Rain showers after
1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 58-63 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........81-86 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 1 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (136).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.48 in.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 55-60 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......16 degrees cooler...except 9 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except unchanged along the
coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (41).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
24 HR Trend......36 percent drier...except 21 percent drier
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (770).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
$$
MIZ031>033-011000-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
330 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog. Slight
chance of rain showers until 2400. Chance of rain
showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (45).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.38 in.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog. Showers.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........87-92 percent.
24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (98).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the west in
the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.40- 0.65 in.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog until
2400. Chance of rain showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.12 in.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
24 HR Trend......42 percent drier...except 37 percent drier
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (725).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-011000-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
330 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog.
Slight chance of rain showers until 2400. Chance
of rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.22 in.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog. Rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........84-89 percent.
24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (112).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.21- 0.62 in.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog until
2400. Chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.26 in.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......45 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (917).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
FROST IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
$$
HAD