345
FNUS53 KAPX 201843
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
243 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...Widespread Soaking Rainfall Expected This Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...There will be periodic chances for showers and
possible thunderstorms over the next several days. Widespread
soaking rainfall is expected Saturday into the first half of
Saturday night. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches or more are
possible. Temperatures are expected to be cooler overall, though
a warmer day or two may be mixed in, especially in the Huron
National Forest. No strong winds of note are expected over the
next few days.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-210815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
243 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated showers
                    until 2400, then scattered showers and isolated
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 8 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (149).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.12 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.41 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........65-70 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (207).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.75- 2.15 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
243 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 2400Scattered rain showers and
                    isolated thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (141).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.15 in .

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.45 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200. Chance of thunderstorms.
                    Rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (217).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.21- 1.79 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-210815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
243 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 2400. Isolated thunderstorms.
                    Scattered rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 83-88 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered rain showers until 1200.
                    Isolated thunderstorms. Isolated rain showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (138).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the west in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 86-91 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.24 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers likely
                    until 1200. Chance of thunderstorms. Showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (345).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.77- 1.63 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-210815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
243 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
                    showers until 2400. Isolated thunderstorms.
                    Isolated showers after 2400. Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Isolated thunderstorms until 1200.
                    Isolated showers. Scattered thunderstorms after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (192).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.28 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.23 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....79-84.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (463).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.38- 1.18 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
243 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered showers and isolated
                    thunderstorms until 1200, then numerous showers
                    and scattered thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (195).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.40 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.46 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....83-88.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (484).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.18- 0.85 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AJS